桑之未|一季度經銷商零售下降227萬輛,豪華車市場成最為抗跌板塊

撰稿人 | 桑之未

汽車流通行業分析師/中國汽車流通協會專家委員會成員

（This article is attached with English translation）

【本文關鍵詞】豪華車市場/經銷商銷量/市場份額/平均售價/折扣率

這是關於2020年豪華車市場的第3篇報告，【本文關鍵詞】豪華車/經銷商銷量/市場份額/平均成交價/折扣率；更多報告可通過公眾號底部菜單「月度報告」獲取，感謝您的關注！

2020年第一季度，國內乘用車經銷商零售319萬輛，同比下滑42%，與去年同期比經銷商零售減少227萬輛；其中20個品牌豪華車企經銷商零售為51.8萬輛，同比下滑26%，比去年同期減少18萬輛。3月份國內乘用車經銷商零售114萬輛，同比下滑33%，環比回升45個百分點；20個品牌豪華車企經銷商零售為20.9萬輛，同比下滑17%，環比回升54個百分點。一季度銷量數據顯示，豪華車成為汽車整體銷量最為抗跌的板塊，一線城市和東部、南部區域成為豪華車銷量增長主力區域。

據流通協會數據顯示，截止3月末，全國經銷商門店復工率達95.5%，客流恢復率達64.0%，銷售效率達61.7%，相比2月末復工率提升65.5個百分點，銷售效率提升39.7個百分點；國內汽車零售端總體恢復情況比較理想，這有助於4月的銷量進一步提升。

社會消費品零售總額汽車類下滑30.3%

一季度，疫情對國內整體經濟影響較大，據國家統計局數據顯示一季度國內生產總值206,504億元，按可比價格計算，同比下降6.8%。一季度，全國居民人均可支配收入8561元，同比名義增長0.8%，扣除價格因素實際下降3.9%；同期全國居民消費價格同比上漲4.9%。一季度，社會消費品零售總額78,580億元，同比名義下降19.0%；3月社會消費品零售總額26,450億元，同比下降15.8%（扣除價格因素實際下降18.1%）；一季度，社會消費品零售總額汽車類同比下滑30.3%至6326億；3月社會零售總額汽車類同比下滑18.1%至2609億。一季度豪華車零售總額為2038億，同比下滑30%，其中3月零售總額為785億，同比下滑18%。國內的生產與消費兩端的下滑，對汽車流通行業影響較大，消費者收入降低將會直接影響其對大宗消費品的消費信心，如果國家刺激政策適度，隨著經濟逐步恢復，汽車消費也有機會逐步回升。

新車零售市場急需普惠式刺激政策

3月國家各部委聯合推出有關刺激汽車消費的政策，包括新能源汽車購置補貼和免徵購置稅政策延長2年、全面取消二手車限遷政策、二手車經銷企業銷售舊車減按銷售額0.5%徵收增值稅、淘汰國三車「以舊換新」、上海、廣州、杭州等限牌城市增加牌號資源、『國六』排放標準延後實施、皮卡進城限行解禁、以及各地方推出購車補貼等。

今年地方也出臺了相關汽車消費刺激政策，這是此前少有的，從各地方提供的補貼金額來看，相當於購置稅減半的力度，但是從山西、廣西、長沙、湘潭、長春、寧波等出臺的政策看，只是鼓勵當地消費者購買地產車，消費者只有購買地產車，在當地上牌才可以享受補貼，這種做法涉嫌觸及反壟斷法，其本質是一種歧視行為，濫用行政權力限制競爭，在市場條件下對有著平等地位的市場主體實施了不平等的待遇；對同樣為當地繳稅、同樣解決當地就業的其他品牌經銷商並不公平，有失政府的信譽與公正。

綜合目前出臺的刺激政策只是部分刺激車市，並沒有對整體新車銷售市場起到積極的促進作用；新車市場急需像前兩次刺激車市時使用的購置稅減半、降低增值稅等普惠式刺激政策，這些政策能夠惠及全國消費者；對經銷商來說，普惠式的刺激政策實際替代了廠家的廣告，能夠把消費者帶到店裡，增加店內客流量從而帶動銷量提升。如果不能在近期出臺普惠式刺激車市的政策，汽車消費在第二季度只能緩慢回升，而第二季度末，車企將會調整下半年銷售計劃，假設第三、第四季如果能維持去年銷售規模，全年經銷商零售銷量預計下跌15%左右，比去年減少大約300萬輛左右，銷量將會跌至2000萬輛以內，新車零售總額損失5000億左右。

國外疫情對國內進口車全年零售影響不大

3月，歐美日本等國家受到疫情影響，奔馳、寶馬、奧迪、保時捷、雷克薩斯、沃爾沃、林肯、蘭博基尼、法拉利等車企把工廠關閉時間延長至4月或5月，這對進口車銷售產生一定的影響，由於各家進口車企對中國的出口到貨時間差不多是N+3個月份（豐田約為1個月），對進口車銷量的影響會在後幾個月顯現；另外2月國內經銷商因為疫情暫停銷售，積累的進口庫存在3月份釋放，所以國內進口車庫存較為充足，對銷售實際影響不大；4月份隨奔馳等品牌開始逐步開啟歐洲工廠生產，進口車資源全年看還是較為充裕的，各家車企預計不會調整進口車全年銷售目標 。

豪華車成為最抗跌板塊，市佔率進一步攀升

一季度，豪華車市佔率為16.2%，同比上升3.4個百分點，3月豪華車市佔率為18.3%，同比上升3.5個百分點，市佔率創近幾年新高。一季度奔馳、寶馬、奧迪、雷克薩斯、凱迪拉克、沃爾沃市佔率居前；從細分市場角度分析，一季度，豪華轎車市佔率為54.5%，同比下降1.6個百分點，豪華SUV市佔率上升1.6個百分點，其中中型SUV市佔率為24.5%，同比增長2.8個百分點，帶動了SUV細分市場增長；一季度中型轎車市場佔有率下滑1.5個百分點至24.2%，作為豪華車市場兩個銷量最大的細分市場，用戶重疊度高，主要受新產品和新車價格的影響較大，銷量此消彼長。

車企加大對經銷商支持力度

豪華車折扣率保持平穩

3月，豪華車市場整體加權成交均價在39萬元左右，與1月份比較價格下滑1.8萬元，與進口車銷量減少有關；折扣率維持在14.9%上下，與1月份比較下滑0.3個點，市場價格比較平穩；車企加大對經銷商的返利支持力度，與1月份比較返利增加0.7個點；3月豪華車企延續2月份政策，繼續為經銷商提供流動性支持，加快下發返利獎金，延長庫存融資免息期；取消或者降低新車銷售考核目標等。作為疫情結束的首個完整銷售月份，市場的各項指標走勢良好，這對後續幾個月市場銷量回升打下一個良好的基礎。

區域中心城市豪華車市場恢復較快

一季度，10城市乘用車銷量為72萬輛，同比下滑45%，其中豪華車銷量為18萬輛，同比下滑28%，10城市豪華車市佔率由去年同期的20%上升至26%；10城市中，北京、深圳豪華車銷量市佔率同比上升10個百分點，廣州上升9個百分點，杭州上升8個百分點，蘇州與成都上升6個百分點。從10城市銷量數據顯示，區域中心城市的豪華車零售市場恢復得較快，這些城市的消費者有比較強的資金實力，對未來有較好的預期，隨著疫情結束，區域中心城市汽車消費開始恢復活力；3月，杭州、蘇州、重慶、上海、西安等城市豪華車市場恢復較快，豪華車銷量同比下滑在13%以內；3月僅北京市場下滑46%，主要受疫情影響，跟新車檢測場沒有開放，新車、二手車不能正常交易有關。（筆者選取國內十個區域中心城市對零售市場進行觀察，涵蓋東區、西部，一線二線、三線市場；10城市：北京、上海、廣州、深圳、成都、重慶、鄭州、蘇州、杭州、西安）

奔 馳

一季度，奔馳經銷商零售量為14萬輛，同比下滑23%，市佔率為27.1%。一季度，奔馳官方公布的銷量為13.9萬輛，同比下滑20%，奔馳銷量下滑低於行業均值，這與去年年末積累的訂單今年前兩個月集中交付有關。據北京統計局公布的數據顯示，一季度北京汽車製造業增值下降30.2%，全市生產汽車29.5萬輛，比上年同期下降27.9%。北京奔馳從2月10日開始復工，作為北京汽車工業中最優質的資產，北京奔馳承擔產量與產值的雙重壓力；一季度乘聯會數據顯示北京奔馳銷量為11萬輛，佔北汽集團銷量的56%，這對奔馳的零售與價格產生較大的壓力 。

3月，奔馳新車成交均價為48萬元，與去年同期比較上漲1.1萬元，品牌折扣在10%左右，經銷商新車銷售有一定的利潤空間。一季度，奔馳A級、GLB、GLC L三款車型銷量增速較快，分擔了奔馳C級、E級的銷量壓力，但這三款車型折扣率也有所增加。其中奔馳A級銷量同比增長31%，達到1.3萬輛，新車均價21.3萬左右，與國產同級別車型比較，價格最貴，但與去年同期3月份比較，價格下降近2.2萬元，這與銷量的提升以及車型銷售比例有關。新上市的GLB零售突破5000臺，均價在33萬元左右，同級別寶馬X1均價在25萬元上下，GLB銷量和價格均有一定的拓展空間。GLC L零售超過3.1萬輛，折扣與銷售均價保持穩定。奔馳進口車銷售主力GLE零售超過7500臺，達到去年同期水平，銷售均價保持在79萬左右，屬於經銷商利潤車型。

3月份奔馳零售銷量在ABB中並不高，一季度受到疫情影響，各家車企並不追求銷售量，3月份部分訂單可以轉到4月份，為第二季度的銷量提升留下空間。北京奔馳生產搶進度，並沒有調整生產計劃，傳遞到銷售層面，銷售壓力會在第二季度呈現，4月份的品牌折扣走勢也證明了這一點。如果奔馳全年的銷售目標沒有調整，第一、第二季度銷售進度又快於其他豪華品牌的話，那麼下半年的銷售壓力會比其他品牌小一些。

寶馬（MINI）

一季度，寶馬品牌經銷商零售量為11.7萬輛，同比下滑29%，市佔率為22.5%。MINI品牌經銷商零售量為4900輛，同比下滑37%。一季度，寶馬（MINI）官方公布的銷量為12.2萬輛，同比下滑29%。

3月，寶馬新車成交均價為40萬元，與去年同期比較上漲4.4萬元，品牌折扣在14%左右。寶馬新車成交均價上漲，主要與過去一年不斷推出的新產品有關，新3系改款上市後，折扣回升較大，進口車包括新X5、新X7、新7系等均實現了改款或者換代，這些新車零售價格比老款有較大的提升，這對寶馬品牌成交均價回升有較大的幫助。

華晨寶馬工廠停工期間損失近2.5萬臺左右的產量，對此華晨寶馬3月調整了生產計劃，有助於緩解國產寶馬的銷售壓力；乘聯會數據顯示，3月北京奔馳銷量達到5.1萬輛，比華晨寶馬多出1萬輛，3月經銷商零售顯示，奔馳比寶馬少賣了7200臺，這部分銷量差會在第二季度顯現，具體表現為奔馳經銷商的庫存壓力會大於寶馬經銷商庫存壓力。

一季度，寶馬5系銷量達到2.7萬輛，同比下滑14%，3月份寶馬5系銷量已經轉正，超過1萬輛，折扣在12%上下；寶馬5系今年將迎來中期改款，產品力會得到進一步加強。一季度，寶馬X3銷量同比下滑16%，銷量超過2萬輛，3月銷量也接近轉正，折扣與寶馬5系相同；寶馬3系在去年末全新換代，今年月度銷量將會維持在萬輛左右，目前寶馬3系的平均價格超過30萬，與去年同期比較提升4萬多，折扣維持在13%上下，與改款前比較也有很大的提升。寶馬兩款進口車X5、7系銷量與價格也維持在較好的水平。一季度寶馬的銷售質量與去年同期比較有很大的改善。

奧 迪

一季度，奧迪經銷商零售量為11.3萬輛，同比下滑25%，市佔率為21.8%，奧迪官方公布的銷量與經銷商零售量一致。

3月，奧迪新車成交均價為29萬元，比去年同期下降2萬元左右，品牌折扣率為24%，走勢平穩。與奔馳、寶馬比較，奧迪進口車銷量較少，奧迪Q7等主力銷售車型受疫情影響暫未上市，國產車型中，Q3、A3、Q2L等小車佔比要比奔馳、寶馬高，對成交均價有一定的影響。在單一車型成交均價方面，奧迪A6L上市5個季度，成交均價維持在36萬左右，比上代A6L退市的價格有4萬元的提升；同級別奔馳E級平均售價46萬，寶馬5系平均售價43萬，雖然三款車型銷量比較接近，但均拉開了價位區間；在中型SUV細分市場，奧迪Q5L均價維持在34萬元左右，奔馳GLC L平均售價44萬元，寶馬X3平均售價37萬元，三款車型也是銷量接近，價位不同。

一季度，一汽奧迪受到疫情影響損失近4萬臺的產量，所以經銷商銷售壓力不大，3月，奧迪優先向經銷商提供A6L、Q5等暢銷車型資源，幫助經銷商恢復銷售。一季度奧迪三款主銷車型奧迪A4L、A6L、Q5L銷量均超過2萬輛，Q3、A3銷量過萬；進口車方面，受疫情等因素影響，銷量下跌幅度較大，預計在第二季度將會有所改善。

凱迪拉克

一季度，凱迪拉克經銷商零售量為2.6萬輛，同比下滑40%，市佔率為5.1%，比去年同期下滑1個點；一季度，凱迪拉克官方公布的銷量為2.68萬輛，同比下滑40%。

3月，凱迪拉克新車成交均價為30萬元，比去年同期上漲2萬元；品牌折扣率為18%，與去年同期比較減少2個點。凱迪拉克一年中實現了成交均價，折扣率雙回升，這體現了管理團隊的工作績效，這一業績的取得主要是依靠發布售價更貴的新車並對發布新車改名得以實現的；與去年比較，老款零售折扣30個點左右的ATS-L、XTS退市停售，改款發布了CT5、CT4兩款新車型，並在去年7月推出全新中大型SUV車型CT6，售價41.97萬起，這對品牌折扣率與成交均價回升均有很大的幫助。不過在售車型折扣與成交均價走勢並不好，如主力銷售車型XT5與去年同期比較，成交均價從34.2萬元下滑至30.6萬元，減少3.6萬元，不過折扣率走勢向相反，從去年同期的25%卻減少到20%，收了5個點的折扣，折扣的回升，主要是通過調整新車指導價實現的；2017年11月，凱迪拉克發布XT5 28E四驅技術型售價37.99萬元，2019年6月XT5中期改款，同款車型售價為34.97萬，指導價下調3萬多，這對XT5的折扣率回升幫助很大。凱迪拉克在售的兩款車型，由於沒有到中期改款，廠家指導價也沒有調整，折扣與均價更能反應真實狀態，CT6成交均價為33萬元，與去年同期比較下滑4.3萬元，折扣率為25%，與去年同期比較增加6個點；XT4成交均價為25萬元，與去年同期比較下滑3.2萬元，折扣率為20%，與去年同期比較增加9個點；從以上數據不難看出，凱迪拉克逐漸放棄高定價、高折扣的銷售思路，開始降低新車指導價，降低新車銷售折扣，減少高折扣對品牌的傷害，逐步提升品牌價值。

雷克薩斯

一季度，雷克薩斯經銷商零售量為3.2萬輛，同比下滑18%，市佔率為6.3%；官方公布的銷量為2.8萬輛，同比下滑25%。

3月，雷克薩斯新車成交均價為41萬元，比去年同期下滑5萬元，這與雷克薩斯LX、GS等售價較貴的車型銷售減少有關。

一季度，從經銷商零售角度觀察，雷克薩斯銷量下滑較少，這與雷克薩斯一直保持訂單銷售有關，一季度交付的車輛，多數是去年以及1月份的訂單，只要新車資源供應能夠保證，經銷商零售不會有很大壓力。1季度ES銷量近1.6萬輛同比下滑3.2%，NX銷量6200臺同比下滑4.1%，RX受供應影響銷量下滑35%為6700臺，但成交均價上漲5000元。

捷豹路虎

一季度，捷豹路虎國產車型零售銷量下跌較多，同比下滑46%，國產發現運動改款上市趕上疫情，生產與批售都受到影響，預計第二季度銷量能得到比較好的提升。

3月，捷豹路虎單月展廳客流與訂單情況得到顯著提升。針對經銷商推出的11項舉措，包括為展廳員工提供防疫物資、取消單月考核、給予庫存補貼、啟動全面線上營銷培訓等多個領域，有效緩解了經銷商合作夥伴在疫情防控及商務運營方面的壓力。目前，捷豹路虎在華經銷商已基本全網恢復運營。

沃爾沃

一季度，沃爾沃經銷商零售量2.3萬輛，同比下滑28%，官方公布的銷量為2萬輛同比下滑31%。一季度沃爾沃市佔率為4.4%，品牌均價為33萬元。

保時捷

一季度，保時捷經銷商零售量1.5萬輛，同比下滑10%。其中3月銷量6600臺，同比增長51%，銷量開始出現回暖。一季度，保時捷採取加快返利、金融支持等多項措施，幫助經銷商改善現金流和增加資金流動性。在新車交付方面，提供更加暢銷的車型給到經銷商，使得消費者可以很快從經銷商處提到預訂的車，幫助經銷商恢復新車銷售業務。另外，保時捷中國根據市場具體的恢復狀況，就經銷商關心的備件採購目標調整、新車批售、下發返利等影響經銷商健康運營的核心指標，與經銷商保持溝通和協商。

林 肯

一季度，林肯經銷商零售量6300輛，同比下滑28%；其中3月，銷量為2735輛，同比下滑30%。一季度，林肯市佔率為1.2%，品牌均價為40萬元。二季度國產車型冒險家將進入完整季度銷售，有助於提升林肯品牌銷量。

英菲尼迪

一季度，英菲尼迪經銷商零售量4400輛同比下滑55%；其中3月，銷量為1800輛，同比下滑51%。一季度，英菲尼迪市佔率為1.2%，品牌均價為30萬元。

瑪莎拉蒂

一季度，瑪莎拉蒂經銷商零售量590輛，同比下滑68%，其中3月，銷量為230輛，同比下滑35%。

謳 歌

一季度，謳歌經銷商零售量1844輛，同比下滑36%；其中3月，銷量為795輛，同比下滑18%。

特斯拉

3月特斯拉零售1.3萬輛，其中國產model 3佔88%；其中銷量前十城市佔整體銷量的98%，特斯拉銷量集中在中大型城市；上海銷量超過3000臺；北京、杭州、廣州、深圳銷量均超過1000臺，北京銷量近1800臺；不限購城市成都、蘇州銷量超過500臺；南京、寧波、重慶、天津、西安、青島、廈門銷量突破300臺。3月是特斯拉重點的季度末交付月份，此前從2019年6月1日開啟的國產車預定收單，批量在3月集中交付；目前預定model 3可以在2-4周內交付，4月特斯拉啟動金融促銷政策，說明訂單獲取是目前重中之重的任務。

更多連結：

勞斯萊斯經銷商零售銷量為189輛，同比下滑18%；

賓利經銷商零售銷量為600輛，同比增長4%；

法拉利經銷商零售銷量為13輛，同比下滑93%；

蘭博基尼經銷商零售銷量為25輛，同比下滑90%；

阿斯頓馬丁經銷商零售銷量為56輛，同比下滑57%；

版權聲明：本文系@桑之未 #原創首發# 轉載或改編請與本人溝通，如有任何侵權行為，侵權者將承擔相應的法律責任。2020-04-29

【往期精選內容】

★ 豪華車月度報告：

受到疫情影響豪華車零售下滑71%，各家車企出臺政策支援經銷商

受新年假期影響，1月份豪華車零售27.1萬輛同比下滑14.8%

2019豪華車零售309萬輛增長7.5%，2020增幅有望提升至10%

★ 高層領導專訪：

對話嚴博禹：工廠暫時關閉不會影響中國業務，多措並舉協助經銷商恢復運營

對話欽培吉：逆勢增長背後，打造創新用戶體驗

對話劉彤：零售終端信心回升，捷豹路虎產品年未來可期

★ 行業熱點分析：

從「車蓋女神」到「4S店車鬧」 過度維權恐得不償失

吉利收Smart意在奔馳，戴姆勒借勢啟動第二家合資公司

大眾首提股比提升 奔馳、豐田跟進通用、福特暫無計劃

Sang Zhiwei: In Q1, the dealer retail sales dropped by 2.27 million in which the luxury car market became the most resistant segment

Written by / Sang Zhiwei

Insight into the Chinese Luxury Car Market

Report | Data | Consulting

Keywords:Luxury car market, Sales volume of dealer, Market share,Average selling price，Discountrate

This is the 3rd luxury car market analysis report in 2020. The previous report can be obtained through the bottom menu "Monthly Report", thank you for your support!

In Q1 2020, dealer sold 3.19 million domestic passenger cars with a YoY decline of 42%, and a decrease of 2.27 million units from the same period last year. 20 luxury brands retailed 518,000 units with a YoY decline of 26%, and a decreased of 180,000 units from the same period last year. Among them, dealer retailed 1.14 million domestic passenger cars in March, down 33% YoY, up 45% MoM. Dealer retail sales of 20 brand luxury car were 209,000 units, down 17% YoY, and up 54% MoM. Luxury cars have become the most resistant segment of overall market. First-tier cities and the eastern and southern regions have become the main regions for luxury car sales growth.

According to the data from CADA, as of the end of March, the national dealer store resumption rate was 95.5%. The showroom traffic recovery rate was 64.0%. The sales efficiency was 61.7%. Compared with the end of February, the resumption rate increased by 65.5% and the sales efficiency increased by 39.7%. The overall recovery situation of domestic auto retail is relatively satisfactory, which helps to further increase sales in April.

Total retail sales of consumer goods for automobiles fell 30.3%

In Q1, the epidemic had a greater impact on the overall domestic economy. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product for Q1 was 206.5504 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 6.8% at comparable prices. In Q1, the national per capita income of residents was 8,561 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.8% YoY, and a real decrease of 3.9% after deducting price factors. The national consumer price rose by 4.9% YoY. In Q1, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 7.858 trillion yuan, a nominal decrease of 19.0% YoY. In March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 2,645 billion yuan, down 15.8% YoY (reduced by 18.1% after deducting price factors). In Q1, the total retail sales of social consumer goods fell 30.3% YoY to 632.6 billion. The automotive category fell 18.1% YoY to 260.9 billion. The total retail sales of luxury segment in Q1 was 203.8 billion, a 30% YoY decline, of which the retail sales in March were 78.5 billion, a 18% YoY decline. The decline in domestic production and consumption at both ends has a greater impact on the automobile industry. The lowering of consumer income will directly affect their consumer confidence in bulk consumer goods. If the national stimulus policy is moderate, as the economy gradually recovers, automobile consumption may also have a chance to rebound gradually .

New car retail market urgently needs inclusive stimulus policies

In March, various national ministries and commissions jointly launched policies on stimulating automobile consumption, including 1) NEV purchase subsidies and purchase tax exemption policies extended for 2 years; 2) The comprehensive removal of second-hand car restriction policies, 3) Second-hand car dealers selling used cars reduced by sales 0.5% VAT; 4) phase-out of the replacement of the national III emission standard vehicles; 5) The increase of number plates in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other limited-licensed cities; 6) The delay of the implementation of the national VI emission standard; 7) The lifting of the ban on pickup trucks into cities; 8) And the introduction of subsidies for car purchases .

This year, local governments have also introduced relevant auto consumption stimulus policies, which are rare before. Judging from the amount of subsidies provided by various localities, it is equivalent to reducing the purchase tax by half. But from Shanxi, Guangxi, Changsha, Xiangtan, Changchun, Ningbo when the policy is introduced, it only encourages local consumers to buy locally produced vehicles. This approach is suspected of touching anti-monopoly law. Consumers can only enjoy subsidies if they buy locally produced vehicles and license locally. This is essentially a discriminatory behavior and abuses administrative power restrictions. Competition has imposed unequal treatment on market players with equal status under market conditions. Other brand distributors who also pay local taxes and also solve local employment are unfair and lose the credibility and justice of the government.

In general, the current stimulus policy only partially stimulates the car market, and it has not played a positive role in promoting the overall new car sales market. The new car market urgently needs inclusive stimuli such as the reduction of the purchase tax in half and the VAT used in the previous two stimulus car markets policies. These policies can benefit consumers across the country. For dealers, the inclusive stimulus policy actually replaces the OEMs ’s advertising and can increase showroom traffic and drive sales. If the inclusive policy of stimulating the auto market cannot be introduced in the near future, auto consumption will only pick up slowly in Q2. At the end of Q2, auto companies will adjust their sales plans for H2, assuming that Q3&Q4 can maintained last year's sales scale, the annual dealer retail sales are expected to fall by about 15%, which is about 3 million fewer than last year. Sales will fall to less than 20 million, and the total retail loss of new cars will be about 500 billion yuan.

Foreign epidemics have little effect on the annual retail sales of imported cars

In March, countries such as EU, America, and Japan were affected by the epidemic. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Porsche, Lexus, Volvo, Lincoln, Lamborghini, Ferrari and other OEMs delayed the factory reopen time to late April or May. This will have a certain impact on imported car sales. The time of arrival of imported cars to China is almost N + 3 months (Toyota is about 1 month). The impact on the sales of imported cars will appear in the next few months. In February, domestic dealers suspended sales due to the epidemic, and the accumulated import inventory began to be released in March. Therefore, imported car inventories are relatively sufficient, which has little effect on sales. In April, Mercedes-Benz and other brands began to gradually open European factory production and imported car resources. The year’s inventory is still relatively ample, and various auto companies are not expected to adjust the annual sales target of imported cars.

Luxury cars have become the most resistant segment with a further increased market share

In Q1, the market share of luxury cars was 16.2%, an increase of 3.4% YoY. Among them, the market share of luxury cars was 18.3% in March, an increase of 3.5% YoY. The market share reached a new high in recent years. In Q1, the market share of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Lexus, Cadillac and Volvo ranked tire one. From the perspective of market segmentation, in Q1, the market share of luxury cars was 54.5%, a decrease of 1.6 % YoY. The market share of luxury SUVs increased by 1.6% YoY, of which the market share of mid-sized SUVs was 24.5%, an increase of 2.8% YoY. The market share of the mid-sized sedan fell 1.5% YoY to 24.2% this quarter. As the two largest segments in the luxury car market, customer overlap is high, mainly affected by new products and new car prices. Sales are changing accordingly.

OEMs increase support for dealers, luxury car discount rate remains stable

In March, the overall weighted average price of the luxury car market was around 390,000 yuan, which was 18,000 yuan lower than the price in January, which was related to the decrease in imported car sales. The discount rate remained at around 14.9%, down 0.3% compared with January. The market price is relatively stable. OMEs increase their rebate support for dealers compared with January, the rebate increased by 0.7%. In March, luxury OEMs continued the February policy, continue to provide dealers with liquidity support; accelerate the issuance rebate bonus; extend the interest-free period of inventory financing; cancel or reduce the evaluation target of new car sales, etc. As the first complete sales month after the epidemic ended, the market's various indicators are trending well, which lays a good foundation for the rebound of market sales in the following months.

Luxury car retail sales has limited drop in regional central cities

In Q1, passenger car sales in 10 cities were 720,000, down 45% YoY, of which luxury car sales were 180,000 units, down 28% YoY. The market share of luxury cars in 10 cities rose to 26% from 20% in the same period last year ; Among the 10 cities, the market share of luxury car sales in Beijing and Shenzhen increased by 10% YoY, 9% YoY in Guangzhou, 8% YoY in Hangzhou, and 6% YoY in Suzhou and Chengdu. From the sales data of 10 cities, the luxury car retail market in the regional central cities has recovered faster. Consumers in these cities have relatively strong financial strength and better expectations for the future; as the epidemic ends, car consumption in the regional central cities begins Rejuvenated. In March, the luxury car market in Hangzhou, Suzhou, Chongqing, Shanghai, Xi'an and other cities recovered faster, and luxury car sales fell within 13% YoY. In March, only Beijing market fell 46%, mainly affected by the epidemic, and new and used cars cannot be traded normally. (The author selects ten domestic central cities to observe the retail market, covering the eastern and western regions, first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier markets. 10 cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Xi'an)

Mercedes

In Q1, Mercedes-Benz dealers had a retail volume of 140,000, a YoY decline of 23% and a market share of 27.1%. In Q1, Mercedes-Benz officially announced sales of 139,000, down 20% YoY. Mercedes-Benz sales fell below the industry average. This is related to the orders accumulated at the end of last year and the concentrated delivery in the first two months of this year. According to data released by the Beijing Statistics Bureau, the value added of the Beijing automobile manufacturing industry fell by 30.2% in Q1. The city produced 295,000 vehicles, a decrease of 27.9% from the same period last year. Beijing Benz started to resume work on February 10th. As the most high-quality asset in the Beijing automobile industry, Beijing Benz is under double pressure of production and output value. The data of Q1 of CPCA shows that Beijing Benz sold 110,000 units, accounting for 56% of the total sales of BAIC Group. This puts greater pressure on Mercedes-Benz's retail and price.

In March, the average transaction price of Mercedes-Benz new cars was 480,000 yuan, an increase of 11,000 yuan compared with the same period of last year. The brand discount was about 10%. Dealers had a certain profit margin for new car sales. In Q1, Mercedes-Benz A-Class, GLB, and GLC L sales grew faster, sharing the sales pressure of Mercedes-Benz C-Class and E-Class. But the discount rate of these three models also increased, of which Mercedes-Benz A-Class sales increased 31% YoY, reaching 13,000. And the average price of new cars is about 213,000 yuan. Compared with domestic models of the same segment, the price is the most expensive. But compared with the same period last year, the price dropped by nearly 22,000 yuan, which is related to the increase in sales and the proportion of model sales. The newly-launched GLB retail sales exceeded 5,000 units at around 330,000 yuan. And the average price of the BMW X1 at the same level was around 250,000 yuan. GLB sales and prices have some space for expansion. GLC L retails more than 31,000 units, with discounts and average sales prices remaining stable. The main sales of Mercedes-Benz imported cars GLE retail more than 7,500 units, reaching the level of the same period last year. The average sales price remained at about 790,000, becomes profitable model for dealers.

In March, Mercedes-Benz retail sales were not high in ABB. The first quarter was affected by the epidemic. Various OEMs did not pursue sales. Some orders in March can be transferred to April, leaving room for sales in Q2. Beijing Benz's production rushed ahead of schedule and did not adjust its production plan, which was passed to the sales level. Sales pressure will appear in Q2 as evidenced by the trend of brand discounts in April. If Mercedes-Benz's annual sales target is not adjusted, and the sales progress in the first and second quarters is faster than that of other luxury brands, then the sales pressure in the second half of the year will be less than that of other brands.

BMW

In Q1, BMW brand dealers had a retail volume of 117,000 units, a YoY decline of 29% and a market share of 22.5%. The retail volume of MINI brand dealers was 4,900 units, a YoY decline of 37%. In Q1, BMW (MINI) officially announced sales of 122,000 units, a YoY decline of 29%.

In March, the average transaction price of BMW's new car was 400,000 yuan, up 44,000 yuan compared with the same period last year, and the brand discount was about 14%. The average transaction price of BMW's new cars has increased, mainly related to the new products that have been continuously launched in the past year. After the new 3 series has been facelifted, the discount has rebounded significantly. After new cars go on sale, the price will be greatly improved compared with the original old models, which will help the BMW brand's average transaction price rebound.

During the shutdown of the BMW Brilliance plant, nearly 25,000 units of production were lost. For this, BMW Brilliance adjusted its production plan in March, which helped to ease the sales pressure of domestic produced BMWs. According to data from CPCA, Beijing Benz sales reached 51,000 in March, 10,000 more than BMW Brilliance. In March, retail dealers showed that Mercedes-Benz sold 7,200 fewer units than BMW. This part of the sales difference will appear in Q2. The specific manifestation is that the inventory pressure of Mercedes-Benz dealers will be greater than that inventory pressure on BMW dealers.

In Q1, BMW 5 Series sales reached 27,000, down 14% YoY. In March, BMW 5 Series sales have turned positive, exceeding 10,000, with discounts of around 12%; BMW 5 Series will be restructured in the middle of this year. It was further strengthened. In Q1, BMW X3 sales fell by 16% YoY, and sales exceeded 20,000 units. Sales in March were also close to positive. The discount is the same as that of the BMW 5 Series. The BMW 3 Series was brand new at the end of last year, and monthly sales will remain at around 10,000 units this year. At present, the average price of the BMW 3 Series is more than 300,000, an increase of more than 40,000 compared with the same period last year. And the discount is maintained at around 13%, which is also a great improvement compared with before the change. In Q1, the sales volume and price of BMW's two imported cars X5 and 7 series also maintained a good level.

Audi

In Q1, the sales volume of Audi dealers was 113,000 units, a YoY decline of 25%, and the market share was 21.8%. Audi ’s official sales were consistent with the dealers ’retail sales.

In March, the average transaction price of Audi's new car was 290,000 yuan, down about 20,000 yuan from the same period last year. The brand discount rate was 24%, and the trend was stable. Compared with Mercedes-Benz and BMW, the sales of Audi imported cars are less. The main sales models of Audi Q7 are not yet listed due to the epidemic. Among domestic models, the proportion of small cars such as Q3, A3 and Q2L is higher than that of Mercedes-Benz and BMW which has a certain impact. In terms of the average transaction price of models, the Audi A6L has been listed for 5 quarters, and the average transaction price has remained at around 360,000, which is an increase of 40,000 yuan compared to the price of the previous generation A6L delisting. The average price of the Mercedes-Benz E-class at the same level is 460,000. The average price of the 5 Series is 430,000. Although the sales of the three models are relatively close, they have opened the price range. In the mid-sized SUV segment, the average price of the Audi Q5L is maintained at about 340,000 yuan, and the average price of the Mercedes-Benz GLC L is 440,000. The average selling price of the BMW X3 is RMB 370,000. The three models also have similar sales and different prices.

In Q1, FAW Audi lost nearly 40,000 units of production due to the epidemic, so the sales pressure of dealers was not large. In March, Audi gave priority to providing dealers with A6L, Q5 and other best-selling model resources to help dealers resume sales. In Q1, the sales of Audi's three main sales models Audi A4L, A6L, Q5L exceeded 20,000, and the sales of Q3 and A3 exceeded 10,000. Only imported vehicles, affected by the epidemic and other factors, sales fell significantly, and are expected to be improved in Q2.

Cadillac

In Q1, Cadillac dealers retailed 26,000 units, a decrease of 40% YoY. The market share accounted for 5.1%, a decrease of 1% from the same period last year. In Q1, Cadillac officially announced sales of 26,800 units, a decrease of 40% YoY.

In March, the average transaction price of Cadillac's new car was 300,000 yuan, an increase of 20,000 over the same period last year. Brand discounts increased by 18%, a decrease of 2% compared with the same period last year. Cadillac achieved the average transaction price and double discount rate in one year, which reflects the work performance of the management team. The achievement of this performance is mainly achieved by the release of a more expensive new car and the release of a new car. Compared with last year the ATS-L, XTS, which had an old retail discount of about 30%, was delisted and discontinued. Two new models, CT5 and CT4, were released. The new medium and large SUV model CT6 was launched in July last year. This greatly helps the brand discount rate and the recovery of the average transaction price. However, the discount and average transaction price of the models on sale are not good. For example, compared with the same period last year, the main sales model XT5 has an average transaction price from 342,000 yuan to 306,000 yuan, a decrease of 36,000 yuan. However, the discount rate trend is opposite. In the same period of last year, 25% was reduced to 20%. The rebound of the discount was mainly achieved by adjusting the MSRP. In November 2017, Cadillac released the XT5 28E four-wheel drive model with the MSRP of 379,900 yuan. In June 2019, the XT5 mid-term facelifted, the MSRP of the same model was 349,700 reduced by more than 30,000, which helped the XT5 discount rate rebound. For the two models sold by Cadillac, since the mid-term change has not been made, the MSRPs has not been adjusted, and the discount and average price are more reflective of the true state. The average transaction price of CT6 is 330,000 yuan, which is 43,000 less compared with the same period last year. The discount was reduced by 25%, an increase of 6% compared with the same period last year. The average transaction price of XT4 was 250,000, compared with the same period last year, with an interval of 32,000 yuan. The discount was reduced by 20%, an increase of 9% compared with the same period last year. At this point, Cadillac gradually gave up the sales strategy of high pricing and high discounts, and began to lower the MSRPs, lower the discount of new car sales, reduce the damage of high discounts to the brand, and gradually increase the brand value.

Lexus

In Q1, the dealer retail volume of Lexus was 32,000 units, with a decrease of 18% YoY. The market share accounted for 6.3%. The official sales volume was 28,000 units, with a decrease of 25% YoY.

In March, the average transaction price of new Lexus cars was 410,000 yuan, with a decrease of 50,000 yuan from the same period last year. This is related to the decrease in sales of more expensive models such as Lexus LX and GS.

In Q1, Lexus observed from the retail perspective of dealers that Lexus sales remained unchanged, which was related to Lexus's continuous order sales. Most of the vehicles delivered in Q1 were orders for last year and January, as long as the supply of new car resources can be guaranteed, dealer retail will not have a lot of pressure. In Q1, ES sales reached to nearly 16,000 units, with a decrease of 3.2% YoY. NX sales of 6,200 units with a decrease of 4.1% YoY. And RX sales fell by 35% to 6700 units, but the average transaction price rose by 5,000 yuan.

Jaguar Land Rover

In Q1, the retail sales of Jaguar Land Rover's domestic produced decreased gradually by 46% YoY. The domestic produced Discovery sports facelifted within the epidemic period. Production and batch sales were affected.

In March, Jaguar Land Rover's single-month showroom traffic and orders were significantly improved. 11 policies launched for dealers, including providing epidemic prevention materials for showroom employees, canceling the monthly assessment, giving inventory compensation, and launching comprehensive online marketing training in several areas, effectively alleviating dealer partners 』epidemic prevention and control and business operations pressure. At present, Jaguar Land Rover dealers in China have basically resumed operation.

Volvo

In Q1, Volvo dealers sold 23,000 units, a decrease of 28% YoY. The official sales were 20,000 units with a decrease of 31% YoY. In Q1, Volvo's share decreased by 4.4%. The average price of the Volvo brand is 330,000 yuan.

Porsche

In Q1, Porsche dealers sold 15,000 units, a decrease of 10% YoY. Among them, 6,600 units were sold in March, an annual increase of 51%, and sales started to pick up. In Q1, Porsche took various measures such as quick rebates and financial support to help dealers improve cash flow and increase liquidity. In terms of new car delivery, providing better-selling models to dealers, so that consumers can quickly refer to the ordered car from the dealer, to help dealers resume the new car sales business. In addition, Porsche China maintains communication and consultation with dealers on core indicators that affect dealers 』health operations, such as adjustments to spare parts procurement targets that dealers care about, new car batches, and rebates.

Lincoln

In Q1, Lincoln dealers sold 6,300 units a decrease of 28% YoY. Among them, the sales volume was 2,735,a decrease of 30% YoY. In Q1, the market share decreased by 1.2%, and the average brand price was 400,000 yuan. In Q2, domestic produced Corsair will enter full quarterly sales, which will help increase Lincoln brand sales.

Infiniti

In Q1, Infiniti dealers sold 4,400 units with a decrease of 55% YoY. in March, sales were 1,800, with a decrease of 51% YoY. In Q1, Infiniti's market share was 1.2%, and the average brand price was 300,000 yuan.（Data mismatch ）

Maserati

In Q1, Maserati dealers sold 590 units with a decrease of 68% YoY, of which 230 were sold in March, with a decrease of 35% YoY.

Acura

In Q1, the dealers sales volume of Acura was 1,844 with a decrease of 36%YoY, of which, in March, sales were 795, with a decrease of 18% YoY.

Tesla

In March, Tesla retailed 13,000 units, of which 88% were domestically produced model 3. 98% of the sales were in 10 cities. Tesla ’s sales were concentrated in large and mid-sized cities. Shanghai ’s sales exceeded 3,000 units; Beijing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen sales averaged over 1,000 units. Beijing sold nearly 1,800 units. Unlimited purchases in the cities of Chengdu and Suzhou exceeded 500 units. Nanjing, Ningbo, Chongqing, Tianjin, Xi'an, Qingdao, Xiamen exceeded 300 units. March is Tesla ’s key quarterly delivery month. Orders are scheduled to acquire domestic produced Model 3 from June 1, 2019, and batch delivery will be concentrated in March. The currently scheduled of Model 3 can be delivered within 2-4 weeks. In April, Tesla launched a financial promotion policy, stating that order acquisition is currently a top priority.

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Rolls-Roycedealers have a retail sales volume of 189 units, with a decrease of 18% YoY.

Bentleydealers have 600 retail sales, with an increase of 4% YoY.

Ferrari dealers have 13 retail sales, with a decrease of 93% YoY.

Lamborghinidealers have 25 retail sales, with a decrease of 90% YoY.

Aston Martindealers have 56 retail sales, with a decrease of 57% YoY.

copyright statement: This article is anoriginal article published by Sang Zhiwei for the first time. For reproduction or adapting, please communicate with the author. In case of any infringement, the infringer will bear the corresponding legal responsibilities. Apr. 29th, 2020, Beijing.

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