ECONOMIST: Turkey is wielding influence all over the Arab world
經濟學人：土耳其正在阿拉伯世界施加影響
Its muscle-flexing worries many
它的炫耀讓許多人擔憂
Azaz has experienced quite the turnaround. The city in northern Syria was once controlled by Islamic State (is), which continued to terrorise it even after leaving in 2014. That is when other jihadists and rebels swooped in. Today, though, Turkey is calling the shots. It keeps the lights on and supplies the local shops. The list of Turkish projects under construction ranges from schools and universities to hospitals and roads. 「The infrastructure is better than before the revolution,」 says an architect who is building new housing as part of another Turkish project.
阿扎茲經歷了相當大的轉變。敘利亞北部的這座城市曾被伊斯蘭國(is)控制，即使在2014年離開後，伊斯蘭國仍繼續對其實施恐怖襲擊。這時，其他聖戰分子和反叛分子突然闖入。然而今天，土耳其在發號施令。它保持燈亮著，供應當地商店。在建的土耳其項目從學校和大學到醫院和道路。"基礎設施比革命前更好，"一位建築師說，他正在建造新的住房，這是另一個土耳其項目的一部分。
Turkey is expanding its footprint across the Arab world, using force more than diplomacy. In the past year it has occupied north-eastern Syria, punched deep into Iraq and intervened in Libya’s civil war. Its military spending has increased by nearly half since 2016.
土耳其正在擴大其在阿拉伯世界的足跡，使用武力多於外交。在過去的一年裡，它佔領了敘利亞東北部，深入伊拉克，並介入利比亞內戰。自2016年以來，其軍費開支增加了近一半。
Yet Turkey’s strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, does not appear to have an all-encompassing vision for the region. Rather he is pursuing Turkey’s economic interests and dealing with perceived threats—sometimes by violating the borders of other countries. Thus is he fulfilling a promise made four years ago to 「go and confront [problems] wherever they nest」.
然而，土耳其的強人雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安似乎對該地區沒有一個包羅萬象的願景。相反，他追求的是土耳其的經濟利益，並應對可能出現的威脅——有時會侵犯其他國家的邊界。因此，他正在履行四年前做出的承諾，即「無論[問題]在哪裡，都要去面對它們。」
Turkey is no newcomer to the Middle East. Its predecessor, the Ottoman empire, ruled the region for 500 years, until European powers rolled it back. More recently it has exerted cultural and economic influence, especially through Turkish soap operas and construction projects. After the Arab spring of 2011 brought Islamist movements to the fore, Mr Erdogan promoted Turkey as a model of Islamist governance—and himself as leader of the Muslim world. As the Islamists were pushed back (or crushed) and Western powers lost interest in the region, Turkey grew more assertive.
土耳其不是中東的新來者。它的前身奧斯曼帝國統治了該地區500年，直到歐洲列強將其擊退。最近，它產生了文化和經濟影響，特別是通過土耳其肥皂劇和建築項目。在2011年的阿拉伯之春將伊斯蘭運動推向前臺之後，埃爾多安先生將土耳其提升為伊斯蘭治理的典範，並將自己提升為穆斯林世界的領袖。隨著伊斯蘭教徒被擊退(或被鎮壓)，西方列強對該地區失去興趣，土耳其變得更加自信。
Start in Syria, where Turkey has long backed the rebels trying to topple Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They have all but lost, but Turkey continues to protect the areas still under their control in the north-west. It does not want another flood of refugees to cross its border, so it has tried to stabilise the region—further digging in. It trains police, funds a civil service and has replaced the Syrian pound with the steadier Turkish lira. In cities such as Azaz it is building rapidly. Backers of Mr Erdogan suggest that this is an investment for the long run.
從敘利亞開始，土耳其長期支持試圖推翻巴沙爾·阿薩德政權的叛軍。他們幾乎失去了一切，但土耳其繼續保護西北部仍在他們控制下的地區。它不想讓另一波難民潮越過它的邊境，所以它試圖穩定這個地區——進一步深入。它訓練警察，資助公務員，並用更穩定的土耳其裡拉取代了敘利亞鎊。在像阿扎茲這樣的城市，它正在迅速發展。埃爾多安的支持者認為這是一項長期投資。
Turkey has been even bolder in the part of northern Syria once controlled by the main local Kurdish force, the People’s Protection Units (ypg). The ypg grabbed a large swathe of territory while helping America defeat is. But the ypg has close ties with the Kurdistan Workers』 Party (pkk), a separatist Kurdish group in Turkey. So when America pulled out in October, Turkish troops moved in, backed by local Arab rebels. Together they pushed the Kurds out of much of their statelet. Turkey now occupies a 30km-deep strip in Syria extending for 145km along their border.
土耳其在敘利亞北部更為大膽，該地區曾被當地主要的庫德武裝——人民保衛部隊所控制ypg)。這ypg在幫助美國戰敗的同時奪取了大片領土存在。但是ypg與庫德斯坦工人黨有密切聯繫(pkk)，一個土耳其的庫德分裂組織。因此，當美國在10月撤軍時，土耳其軍隊在當地阿拉伯叛軍的支持下進駐。他們一起將庫德人趕出了他們的大部分領地。土耳其現在佔據了敘利亞30公裡深的狹長地帶，沿著兩國邊境延伸了145公裡。
Mr Erdogan is also battling the pkk in the Kurds』 autonomous region in northern Iraq. Turkey says it has 「neutralised」 over 1,400 Kurdish fighters in Iraq and Syria this year. Sometimes the Turks have attacked 200km inside Iraq. They insist it is a short-term operation aimed only at the pkk, but they have set up a number of new outposts in the country. Many suspect their aim is to carve out a buffer zone along the border, as they did in Syria. Iraq’s Kurds fear a Turkish presence would endanger their aspirations for statehood and, if it extends far enough, cut them off from the Kurds in Syria.
埃爾多安先生也在與pkk在伊拉克北部的庫德自治區。土耳其表示，今年已經「中和」了伊拉克和敘利亞的1400多名庫德武裝分子。有時土耳其人襲擊了伊拉克境內200公裡處。他們堅稱這是一次短期行動，只針對pkk，但是他們已經在這個國家建立了一些新的前哨基地。許多人懷疑他們的目的是沿著邊境劃出一個緩衝區，就像他們在敘利亞所做的那樣。伊拉克的庫德人擔心土耳其的存在會危及他們對國家地位的渴望，如果土耳其的存在延伸到足夠遠的地方，就會將他們與敘利亞的庫德人隔離開來。
Turkey’s intervention in Libya is different. The countries of the eastern Mediterranean have long argued over who controls which part of the sea—and the gasfields beneath it. Mr Erdogan feared that an alliance of Egypt, Israel, Greece and Cyprus might squeeze Turkey out of the area. So last year he signed a deal with Libya’s un-backed government that demarcated their maritime boundaries and supposedly gave Turkey the right to drill in waters off Greek islands. (Greece is having none of it.) In return Turkey has provided troops, arms, drones and mercenaries (from Syria) to the Libyan government and its allied militias, tipping the war in their favour. Earlier this year the forces of Khalifa Haftar, a rebellious Libyan general, were pushed out of western Libya.
土耳其對利比亞的幹預是不同的。東地中海國家長期以來一直在爭論誰控制了海洋的哪一部分——以及海底的氣田。埃爾多安擔心埃及、以色列、希臘和賽普勒斯的聯盟可能會將土耳其擠出該地區。所以去年他和利比亞籤署了一項協議聯合國由政府支持，劃定了他們的海洋邊界，據說給了土耳其在希臘群島附近海域鑽探的權利。(希臘什麼都沒有。作為回報，土耳其(從敘利亞)向利比亞政府及其同盟民兵提供了軍隊、武器、無人機和僱傭軍，從而使戰爭對他們有利。今年早些時候，反叛的利比亞將軍哈裡發·哈弗塔的部隊被趕出了利比亞西部。
Turkey is now a force to be reckoned with along a 600-km stretch of the Mediterranean. It controls an airbase in al-Watiya, close to Libya’s border with Tunisia. Its frigates protect Libya’s coast in the west. Some say Mr Erdogan is trying to turn the eastern Mediterranean into a Turkish sea.
土耳其現在是地中海600公裡的一股不可忽視的力量。它控制著靠近利比亞和突尼西亞邊境的瓦迪亞空軍基地。它的護衛艦保護利比亞西部的海岸。有人說埃爾多安先生試圖將東地中海變成土耳其海。
He is active elsewhere, too. He has installed a Turkish garrison in Qatar, an ally and fellow backer of Islamist movements that has been threatened by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (uae). He has also shown an interest in Yemen’s civil war, offering Turkey as a safe haven for the Islamists fighting on behalf of the exiled president, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi. (He may do the same for Mr Hadi if Saudi Arabia grows tired of hosting him.) Across the Red Sea, in Sudan, Turkey is hoping to develop Suakin, a ruined Ottoman port. And it has established its largest overseas base in Mogadishu, the Somali capital.
他在其他地方也很活躍。他在卡達建立了土耳其駐軍，作為受到沙烏地阿拉伯和阿聯威脅的伊斯蘭運動的盟友和支持者(阿拉伯聯合大公國)。他還對葉門內戰表現出興趣，為代表流亡總統阿卜杜勒·拉布·曼蘇爾·哈迪作戰的伊斯蘭主義者提供土耳其作為安全避難所。(如果沙烏地阿拉伯厭倦了接待哈迪，他可能也會這麼做。)在紅海對岸的蘇丹，土耳其希望開發蘇亞金，一個被毀的奧斯曼帝國港口。它還在索馬利亞首都摩加迪沙建立了最大的海外基地。
Does Turkey have staying power? Its armed forces may already be stretched thin, having lost thousands of officers to show trials and purges in the past decade. And its adventurism isn’t cheap. Its operations in Syria alone cost up to $3bn a year, says Nihat Ali Ozcan of tepav, a think-tank. But Mr Erdogan focuses on the benefits. Qatar, for example, has gone on an investment spree in Turkey. Earlier this year it helped shore up the weakening lira by tripling its currency-swap agreement with Turkey to $15bn. It may also be helping to pay for the operation in Libya, where Turkey expects to win new contracts when peacetime reconstruction resumes.
土耳其有持久力嗎？它的武裝力量可能已經捉襟見肘，在過去的十年裡已經失去了成千上萬的軍官來展示審判和清洗。它的冒險主義並不便宜。該公司在敘利亞的業務每年耗資高達30億美元tepav智囊團。但是埃爾多安先生關注的是好處。例如，卡達在土耳其展開了投資熱潮。今年早些時候，它將與土耳其的貨幣互換協議增加了兩倍，達到150億美元，幫助支撐了疲軟的裡拉。它也可能幫助支付在利比亞的行動，土耳其希望在和平時期重建恢復時贏得新的合同。
There is a domestic political benefit for Mr Erdogan, too. His attacks on the Kurds and posturing in the Mediterranean have delighted the nationalists who are his allies in parliament. They, in turn, have influence over the police and army.
埃爾多安先生也有國內政治利益。他對庫德人的攻擊和在地中海的姿態讓他在議會中的盟友民族主義者感到高興。反過來，他們對警察和軍隊有影響力。
But the going could get tougher. Egypt has mobilised its forces on Libya’s border and vows to cross it if Turkey advances further. Saudi Arabia and the uae, staunch anti-Islamists, would probably back Egypt. Russia is also on the opposing side in Libya—and in Syria, where it is believed to have killed dozens of Turkish troops in February. Mr Erdogan may soon feel he has bitten off more than he can chew.
但情況可能會變得更加艱難。埃及已經在利比亞邊境調動了軍隊，並發誓如果土耳其進一步推進，埃及將越過邊境。沙烏地阿拉伯和美國阿拉伯聯合大公國堅定的反伊斯蘭主義者可能會支持埃及。俄羅斯在利比亞和敘利亞也是對立的一方，據信俄羅斯在2月份殺害了數十名土耳其士兵。埃爾多安先生可能很快會覺得他已經吃不消了。
本文章原文來自經濟學人，不代表公眾號立場
英文文章及圖片來源：
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/01/turkey-is-wielding-influence-all-over-the-arab-world
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