中國石化新聞網訊 據世界石油網站1月12日報導 美國政府預測，受原油價格上漲和頁巖鑽井反彈的推動，明年石油產量將增長約3.5％。
根據美國能源信息署（EIA）的數據，到2022年，石油平均日產量將達到1149萬桶。該機構將其今年的產量預估維持在1110萬不變。該機構表示，最近的原油價格上漲和鑽井平臺的增加將幫助美國48州的產量在今年第二季度開始增長。
在去年大流行導致需求下降之前，美國原油產量在去年初攀升至1300萬桶以上之後，仍徘徊在約1100萬桶/日的水平。貝克休斯的數據顯示，美國的石油鑽機數量已經連續七周攀升，並且是自5月以來的最高水平。
但是捲土重來可能是漸進的。在沙烏地阿拉伯上周計劃單方面削減未來數月產量的計劃令市場感到驚訝之後，油價飆升至每桶50美元上方，許多鑽探者表示，他們可能抵制如此飆升的誘惑。現在，大多數頁巖油生產商將更多的精力放在清理債務和兌現投資者的承諾上，以保持財政紀律。
先鋒自然資源公司執行長斯科特·謝菲爾德本月早些時候表示，預計未來幾年美國的石油產量將基本保持在約1100萬桶/日的水平。
根據該機構周二發布的《短期能效展望》，美國能源信息署將其對西德克薩斯中質油的2021年價格預測從12月的每桶45.78美元上調至49.70美元，並發布了2022年的價格預測為每桶49.81美元。預計2021年和2022年布倫特原油均價分別為每桶52.70美元和53.44美元。
儘管EIA調高了價格預測，但它預計進一步的漲幅將受到全球高庫存和過剩原油產能的限制。該機構表示，全球產量上升可能會由於今年第二季度的適度下降價格壓力而出現。
EIA預計，今年美國的石油需求為1951萬桶，而此前的每日預測為1979萬桶。到2021年，全球平均日供應量為9713萬桶，而此前為9742萬桶。預計全球需求為9780萬，低於先前預測的9820萬。
王磊 摘譯自 世界石油
原文如下：
U.S. projects higher oil output in 2022 from rebounding shale
The U.S. government is forecasting oil production to rise about 3.5% next year spurred by higher crude prices and a rebound in shale drilling.
Oil output will average 11.49 million barrels a day in 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency, which left its production estimate for this year unchanged at 11.1 million, said that recent crude price increases and rig additions will help production in the Lower 48 states begin to rise in the second quarter of this year.
U.S. crude production is hovering at about 11 million barrels a day, after climbing above 13 million early last year before the pandemic crushed demand. The U.S. oil rig count has climbed for seven straight weeks and is at the highest level since May, Baker Hughes data show.
But a comeback will likely be gradual. While oil prices surged above $50 a barrel after Saudi Arabia last week surprised the market with a plan to unilaterally slash production in the coming months, many drillers say they may resist the temptation to turn on the taps so quickly. Most shale producers are now more focused on clearing debt and honoring investor pledges to keep fiscal discipline.
Pioneer Natural Resources Co. CEO Scott Sheffield said earlier this month that U.S. oil output is expected to remain roughly flat at about 11 million barrels a day for the next several years.
The EIA raised its 2021 price forecast for West Texas Intermediate to $49.70 a barrel from its December estimate of $45.78 a barrel, and introduced its 2022 price forecast at $49.81 a barrel, according to the agency’s Short-Term Emergy Outlook released on Tuesday. Brent prices are forecast to average $52.70 a barrel and $53.44 a barrel in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Even though the EIA boosted its price forecasts, it expects further gains to be limited by high global inventories and surplus crude production capacity. Rising global production will likely emerge as a moderate downward price pressure in the second quarter of the year, the agency said.
The EIA also sees U.S. petroleum demand this year at 19.51 million versus 19.79 million barrels a day forecast previously. Global supply for 2021 will average 97.13 million barrels a day versus 97.42 million previously. World demand is seen at 97.8 million, down from a prior forecast of 98.2 million.