中國石化新聞網訊 據1月7日Rigzone報導，渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)最新的大宗商品報告顯示，該行將2021年布倫特平均油價預期上調7美元，至每桶51美元。
該銀行的分析師還將他們對2022年布倫特原油平均價格的預期也上調了7美元，至每桶59美元。這些分析師在報告中表示，沙烏地阿拉伯單方面減產，以及其重申削減庫存的決心，改變了油價前景。分析師們指出，儘管今年第二季度油價存在下行風險，但沙烏地阿拉伯的行動已顯著增強了油價的下限水平。
渣打銀行強調，沙烏地阿拉伯在2月和3月額外削減原油日產量100萬桶的舉措，被視為是一種先發制人的措施，目的是在短期基本面不確定性增加的情況下，維持全球庫存下降的勢頭。
該報告指出，預計第一季度全球石油需求依然疲弱，季度環比僅增加30萬桶/天，達到9390萬桶/天。需求量將低於疫情爆發前700萬桶/天左右。
報告強調，需求疲軟，預計歐佩克+大多數國家將推遲增產，加上沙烏地阿拉伯的額外減產，以及其他國家的補償性減產，將使近期的原油市場保持緊俏。預計全球庫存將達到每天110萬桶，這個規模不大，但可以防止庫存正常化進程陷入停滯。
此前，惠譽國際解決方案國家風險與行業研究機構(Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research)透露，其對2021年1月布倫特原油價格的預測較2020年12月保持不變。該公司預計，布倫特原油今年的平均價格為每桶53美元，2022年為每桶51美元，2023年為每桶55美元，2024年為每桶60美元。
在撰寫本文時，布倫特原油價格為每桶54.51美元。自2020年10月原油價格低於每桶38美元以來，該商品價格一直在穩步上漲。
王佳晶 摘譯自 Rigzone
原文如下：
Bank Boosts 2021 Oil Price Forecast by $7
Standard Chartered has increased its 2021 average Brent oil price forecast by $7 to $51 per barrel, the company’s latest commodity report has revealed.
Analysts at the bank, who also raised their 2022 average Brent oil price forecast by $7 to $59 per barrel, said in the report that Saudi Arabia’s unilateral cut and its demonstration of a renewed and restated determination to reduce inventories changes the outlook for prices. The analysts noted that, while they still see downside risk for oil prices in the second quarter of this year, they think Saudi Arabia’s actions have significantly strengthened the floor for prices.
Standard Chartered highlighted that Saudi Arabia’s move to cut its crude oil production by one million barrels per day for February and March was presented as a pre-emptive measure aimed at maintaining some momentum behind global inventory draws in the face of increased short-term fundamental uncertainty.
「We expect global oil demand to remain weak in Q1-2021 with a quarter on quarter increase of just 0.3 million barrels per day to 93.9 million barrels per day, leaving demand around seven million barrels per day below the pre-pandemic level,」 the analysts stated in the report, which was sent to Rigzone on Wednesday.
「Despite demand sluggishness, we expect the delay in OPEC+ production increases for most countries, combined with Saudi Arabia’s one million barrel per day cut and payback of past overproduction by other countries, to keep the prompt crude oil market tight,」 they added.
「We expect a global inventory draw of 1.1 million barrels per day. Not large, but enough to prevent the process of inventory normalization stalling,」 the analysts continued.
Earlier this week, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research revealed that its Brent crude oil price projections had remained unchanged from December 2020 to January 2021. The company expects Brent crude prices to average $53 per barrel this year, $51 per barrel in 2022, $55 per barrel in 2023 and $60 per barrel in 2024.
At the time of writing, Brent crude oil was priced at $54.51 per barrel. The commodity has been rising steadily since October 2020, when it was valued at under $38 per barrel.