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[重點詞彙]v. 以...作抵押n. 擴音器；放大器adj. 不透明的；含糊的2021年金融體系將面臨壓力測試
Stress test looms for financial system in 2021普倫德：金融體系將長期面臨流動性需求的定期激增，考驗銀行和非銀行機構的資產負債表。這可能迫使央行長期充當紓困者。
Be warned. The global financial system in 2021 will face a gigantic stress test.
請注意：全球金融體系將在2021年面臨巨大的壓力測試。
This follows from one of the more important lessons that emerged from the coronavirus-induced market turmoil in March last year — a lesson that is worth revisiting.
這條警示源自去年3月新冠病毒引發的市場動蕩給我們上的重要一課——值得重新溫習的一課。
The so-called dash for cash was in part a reflection of how the big banks』 balance sheets had failed, since the 2008 financial crash, to keep pace with the growth in the stock of US Treasury securities that was spurred by the post-crisis surge in federal deficits.
那場所謂「緊急套現」在一定程度上反映出，自2008年金融危機以來，大型銀行的資產負債表未能跟上由危機後聯邦赤字激增推動的美國國債存量增長。
Their ability to act as intermediaries in the Treasury market was thus impaired. And their readiness to provide liquidity to the market by absorbing investor flows on to their balance sheets, as opposed to simply matching buyers and sellers, was further reduced by the tougher capital and liquidity rules introduced after the financial crisis.
這些大型銀行在美國國債市場中充當中介的能力因此遭到削弱。此外，金融危機後出臺的更嚴格的資本金和流動性規定，使得這些銀行更難以通過將投資者的資金流吸收進自己的資產負債表（而不是簡單地撮合買方和賣方）來提供流動性。
The stricter regulatory framework was, in one sense, good for financial stability. The banks emerged relatively safe from last year’s crisis. But their role as providers of liquidity has increasingly been filled by less-regulated non-banks, or shadow banks, such as hedge funds. These borrow heavily, often to maximise the return from trades that arbitrage tiny differences between the prices of closely related assets.
從某種意義上講，更嚴格的監管框架有利於金融穩定。這些銀行相對安然無恙地度過了去年的危機，但它們作為市場流動性提供者的角色，已越來越多地被對衝基金等受到監管較少的非銀行機構、也就是影子銀行所取代。這些非銀行機構大舉借貸，通常是為了最大化套利交易的回報——這些交易利用密切相關的資產之間的微小价差進行套利。
With the onset of heightened volatility and market stress last March, these non-banks faced margin calls and funding difficulties. They went from being market stabilisers to amplifiers of market stress.
隨著去年3月波動性及市場壓力加劇，這些非銀行機構面臨追加保證金的要求以及融資困難。它們從市場穩定器變為了市場壓力放大器。
Jon Cunliffe, Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability, has remarked that there is nothing new in seeing these so-called leveraged relative value trades unwind. It happened at Long-Term Capital Management, the hedge fund that had to be bailed out in 1998. What was different this time, he points out, was that the stress was systemic.
英國央行(Bank of England)負責金融穩定的副行長喬恩•坎利夫(Jon Cunliffe)表示，這些所謂的使用槓桿的相對價值交易(leveraged relative value trades)出問題，並不是件新鮮事。1998年不得不接受紓困的對衝基金長期資本管理公司(Long-Term Capital Management)就是一個先例。他指出，有所不同的是，這次的危機是系統性的。
As a consequence, the world’s hitherto most liquid market — US Treasuries — saw yields rise sharply while the bid-ask spread on 30-year US Treasury paper increased tenfold. The safest global haven lost its haven status until the US Federal Reserve came to the rescue, cutting the target range for the benchmark to near zero and committing to buy $500bn-plus of Treasury securities.
其結果是，迄今為止全球流動性最強的市場——美國國債——收益率大幅上升，30年期美國國債的買賣價差增至原來的10倍。這種全球最安全的避險資產已經失去了其避險資產地位，直至美聯儲(US Federal Reserve)伸出援手，將基準利率的目標區間降至接近零的水平，並承諾購買逾5000億美元的美國國債。
What matters about this rescue for 2021 and beyond, argues Darrell Duffie of Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business, is that there is counterproductive moral hazard in relying on future Fed rescues of the Treasury market as an alternative to reforming the structure of the market so it can better handle large episodic future surges in demand for liquidity.
斯坦福商學院(Stanford Graduate School of Business)的達雷爾•達菲(Darrell Duffie)認為，這次紓困對2021年及之後的重要性在於，這種做法——依賴美聯儲未來對美國國債市場進行救助，而不是改革該市場的結構、以便其能夠更好地應對未來流動性需求不定期的激增——存在道德風險，可能起反作用。
In a paper last year, he observed that such surges could be expected to arrive with greater frequency and magnitude, given both the historically high and growing ratio of federal debt to gross domestic product and the ballooning stock of outstanding Treasury securities relative to the capacity of dealer balance sheets.
達菲在去年的一篇論文中指出，鑑於美國聯邦債務與國內生產總值(GDP)之比處於歷史高位且還在不斷上升，以及美國國債未償存量相對於交易商資產負債表容量在不斷膨脹，流動性需求的這種激增預計會以更高的頻率以及更大的規模出現。
In other words, a financial system with a morally hazardous inbuilt incentive for excessive risk taking is now subject to a rolling stress test on an unprecedented scale.
換句話說，一個存在道德風險、因而有內在動機去冒過大風險的的金融體系，現在正面臨著規模空前的周期性壓力測試。
The financial fragility revealed in March 2020 highlights a fundamental change in the structure of the financial system. For much of the postwar period, it was all about channelling savings to borrowers, facilitating payments and helping people and corporations share risk.
2020年3月暴露出的金融脆弱性，突顯出金融體系結構的根本性變化。在戰後的大部分時間中，金融體系的主要功能曾是將儲蓄輸送給借款人、為支付提供便利，以及幫助個人和企業分擔風險。
Yet, since the deregulatory thrust that began in the 1970s, a growing share of financial intermediation — borrowing and lending — takes the form of collateralised repurchase agreements or repos where cash is exchanged for high-quality assets such as US government debt. At the same time, much of the risk-sharing function is conducted in multitrillion-dollar derivatives markets.
然而，自上世紀70年代開始放鬆監管以來，越來越多的金融中介活動——包括借入與貸出——採取了質押式回購協議（簡稱repo）的形式，即用現金換取美國政府債務等優質資產。同時，價值數萬億美元的衍生品市場承擔了很多風險分擔功能。
Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, points out that in this more market-based framework, the provision of liquidity depends heavily on wholesale markets. Here the players — often shadow banks — are leveraged and part of complex networks of collateralised lending relationships. Shadow banks, he adds, mainly repackage and recycle existing savings. Their funding model is based on short-term repos and they are much more exposed to interest rate fluctuations than banks.
跨境資本(CrossBorder Capital)董事總經理麥可•豪厄爾(Michael Howell)指出，在這種更大程度上基於市場的框架下，流動性的供給嚴重依賴批發市場。這些市場的參與者——往往是影子銀行——都背負槓桿，且屬於複雜的抵押借貸關係網的一部分。他補充稱，影子銀行做的主要是重新打包和回收現有儲蓄。它們的融資模式基於短期回購，比銀行更容易受到利率波動的影響。
It is a more opaque, fast-moving financial world that poses huge challenges for regulators. As for the financial system itself, the big future challenge will be how to refinance an ever-growing mountain of debt when so many banks and non-banks have flawed or constrained balance sheets. The conclusion must be that central banks』 market stabilising activities will be with us for longer than many now expect.
影子銀行是一個更加不透明、瞬息萬變的金融世界，給監管機構帶來了巨大挑戰。至於金融體系本身，它將在未來面臨的重大挑戰在於，在如此多銀行和非銀行機構的資產負債表存在缺陷或受到限制的情況下，如何為其日益堆積的債務進行再融資。結論肯定是，央行穩定市場的種種舉措，將在長於許多人現在預期的時間裡繼續存在。
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劉紀鵬：中國政法大學商學院院長、MBA教育中心主任、二級教授、博士生導師、高級研究員、高級經濟師、註冊會計師。
孟令星：中國政法大學商學院講師、MBA教育中心招生部主任、清華大學商法學博士、中國人民大學經濟法學博士後、美國哈佛大學進修學者。
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