近日，第六屆牛津中國論壇日前在牛津大學舉辦，知乎CTO李大海出席並發表演講，就中國科技的未來發展分享了自己的觀點。李大海認為，中國實質上已經是一個科技大國，在成為下一個科技強國的路上，科技創新能力、與基礎科學研究將是未來發展的核心地帶。
以下為演講全文：
感謝牛津中國論壇的邀請和熱情接待，謝謝大家的掌聲。今天的論壇主題很宏大，作為一個中國科技產業的「圈內人」，我也來簡單談談我的看法。
Thank you. Thanks for Oxford China Forum and your applause. As a participant of China’s technology industry, I would like to share my views in today’s topic。
我們常說，科技是第一生產力。每年科技界都會貢獻出足以改變世界的突破，慢慢滲透進我們每個人的生活。
As the saying goes，technology is the primary productive forces. There are so many technological innovations every year that will change our lives。
2018 年，我們同樣聽到很多振奮的消息，基因試紙被開發、新型光合作用被發現、人工智慧應用爆發、洞察號登陸火星...... 小到基因序列，大到外太空，科技讓人類發現了越來越大的世界。
There was lots of good news in 2018 too.The multiplexed and portable nucleic acid detection platform，the new type of photosynthesis, the AI applications, the insight landing on Mars，and so on...... Technological innovations make us discover a larger world。
這些最新的科技話題，每個都在知乎上引發了熱烈討論。在知乎超過 3000 萬個問題中，科技一直是規模最大的話題和討論門類。除了科技話題，知乎上也有很多其它領域的討論，涉及的話題數量高達 27 萬。當然，這裡面也包括英國以及牛津大學的討論。事實上，知乎聚集了超過 17 萬在英國的用戶，他們的無私分享，讓中國網友更了解英國的人文和科技。
The innovations has been discussed extensively on Zhihu. Yes, Zhihu is a Q&A online community that collected 270 thousand topics and 30 million questions in total. There are also many discussions about other fields including the UK and Oxford. Especially, Zhihu has gathered more than 170 thousand users from the UK, their posts in UK about culture and technology are very valuable。
說到「科技強國」，毫無疑問，英國從第一次工業革命開始，就是當之無愧的科技強國。數百年來，英國的科技創新實力都名列前茅。 而建校 900 多年的牛津大學更是不可忽視的一支力量。作為英國最大的科研中心，牛津大學為全球科技發展輸送了大量傑出的人才，他們創造的科技碩果，不僅推動英國成為世界科技強國，也惠及到世界各國的人民。
Obviously, the UK has been a well-deserved tech leader since the first Industrial Revolution.For centuries, the UK has been one of the world's leading technology innovators. And Oxford, the largest scientific research center in the UK with more than 900-year history, has provided a massive number of outstanding talents. Their work on science and technology benefit the country and people of the whole world。
那麼，中國的科技發展又是怎樣一番景象呢？在接到主辦方的邀請之後，我把這次的論壇議題作為一個問題在知乎拋出，截止到上周，一共收穫了 299 個回答，3198 人關注，186 多萬人瀏覽。
Well, what about the technological development in China? After receiving the invitation from the forum, I raised a question as same as our topic on Zhihu. As of last week, the question had received more than 300 answers, and around 3 thousands followers. The discussions received 1.89 million page views。
基本上，大家已經形成兩個共識。第一個共識，如果在全球範圍內橫向對比，中國實質上已經是一個科技大國。中國的科技發展正處於從量的積累向質的飛躍、點的突破向系統能力提升的重要時期。
Basically, there are two consensuses. The first is, China has essentially become a major tech power across the world. And the tipping point for China to be tech leader may be in the near future。
我這裡有一組數據， 2008 年至 2018 年，中國科技人員共發表國際論文 227.22 萬篇，論文共被引用 2272.40 萬次，分別排在世界第 2 位；中國成為世界上唯一一個專利申請有兩位數增長的國家，一個對研究和發展的投資高達全世界投資總額的 20% 的國家。
Let me show you some data. From 2008 to 2018, Chinese researchers have published 2,272,200 papers internationally, which have been cited 22,724,000 times, and both ranked the second in the world after the United States. China is also the only country that have double-digit growth in patent applications, and the one whose research funds has accounted for 20 percent of the total in the world。
往「大」了說。過去幾年，中國在科技工程上成果纍纍，被海內外稱作「基建狂魔」。這些科技工程不僅遍及中國，還走出國門，甚至上天入海。
In the macro scope，China has made great achievements in technology engineering all over the world.That's why China has been called "the infrastructure maniac" in domestic and abroad。
一個多月前，中國嫦娥四號探測器成功在月球背面軟著陸，實現了中國在太空科技史上的一大步；同一年，中國建成了世界上裡程最長、施工難度最大、技術含量最高、科學專利和投資金額最多的跨海大橋——港珠澳大橋，這座大橋也被英國《衛報》評為「新世界七大奇蹟」之一。
One month ago, China's Chang 'e-4 spacecraft has successfully landed on far side of the moon, marking a giant leap for China in history. In the same year, China has completed the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, which is the most difficult construction, with the longest length, the highest tech, the most scientific patents and the largest amount of investment in the world. The bridge has also been named as one of the "the seven wonders of the modern world" by The Guardian。
往「小」了說呢，2018 年，中國首次揭示水合離子的微觀結構，獲得水合離子的原子級圖像，在離子電池、海水淡化等領域開拓了新的應用前景；中國還首次在鐵基超導材料中發現馬約拉納任意子，對於未來構建高度穩定的量子計算機具有重要意義。
In the micro scope, China has revealed the micro-structure of hydrated ions for the first time, obtained atomic images of hydrated ions, and opened up new prospects in application fields such as ion batteries and seawater desalination; China has also found Mayolana Arbitron for the first time in iron-based superconducting materials, which is of great significance for the construction of a highly stable quantum computer in the future。
「大」和「小」我們說完了，接下來我們換個角度，再往「細」了說。科技驅動中國在「創造」和「發現」領域一日千裡，同時也在生活細節上改變著我們。都說中國的應用科技的天堂，沒錯，中國的數位技術、無人機技術、行動支付技術、共享經濟都跑在全球前列，為民眾創造了新的生活方式，讓大家切身體會到什麼是「科技改變生活」。
From another angle, besides the creations and discoveries，technology has extensively changed our lives. Absolutely, China leads world in
digital tech, drone tech,mobile payment tech and innovative sharing economy。
曾經有家媒體做過一幅有趣的用戶畫像，叫做「一個中國人的一天」，我們不妨叫他 Jack。
There was an interesting user profile called "One Day of a Chinese Person". Let's call him Jack。
Jack 每天早上 7 點準時被智慧機器人叫醒，他一邊洗漱，一天預知天氣，享受音樂；9 點鐘，Jack 通過手機 NFC 支付乘坐地鐵上班，在上班路上刷一刷知乎，看看算法推薦下的感興趣的內容；10 點鐘到達公司之前，在外賣訂餐網站預定的咖啡已經送到了 Jack 的辦公桌上；下午 2 點鐘，Jack 突然想起家中該繳納電費了，於是他在手機 App 上花費1分鐘完成繳費；6 點鐘下班之後，Jack 乘坐網約車回家，在到家之前，空調、熱水器等智能家居已經做好了準備工作....。。
Jack wakes up at 7 a.m. every morning by the intelligent robot which providing weather and music services; At 9 a.m., Jack takes the subway to work with the mobile phone NFC payment. On the way to work, he browses Zhihu to check the content that he is interested in under the recommendation of algorithm; Before he arrives at the company at 10 a.m., the coffee that came from ordering website has been on Jack's office desk; At 2 p.m., Jack suddenly remembers that it is time to pay the electricity bill for his house, so he spends 1 minute on the mobile App to complete the payment; And at 6 p.m. after work, Jack goes back home by car-hailing services, meanwhile,the air conditioning, water heater and other smart-home services have been well prepared in his house....。。
科技對一個普通人生活的滲透，遠不限於此。1985 年上映的經典科幻電影《回到未來》腦洞了一個充滿科技的未來世界，到了如今的真實世界，我們幾乎實現了電影中至少一半的科技設想。
The influence of technology to our life goes further.The classic science fiction film 「Back to the Future」 in 1985, has imagined a futuristic world full of technology. Now, almost half of the technological visions in the film have come true in the real world。
為了另外一半設想早日成為現實，中國科技行業還在不斷地探索之中。比如說我所在的公司知乎，AI 算法、機器學習已經滲透進知識產出和分享的每個環節，用戶在知乎看到的每一個內容推送，輸出的每一個知識見解，背後都飽含技術創新的作用。
But Chinese technology industry is still exploring to realize the other half, for instance, my company Zhihu. AI algorithm and machine learning have been extensively used in the flowing and converting of knowledge. We can see the technological innovations behind the content-based recommendation systems of Zhihu。
從大型工程建造，到細胞粒子級的探索，再到改變生活細節的網際網路應用，中國取得的這些科技成就，靠的不是閉門造車，而是全球化的開放合作。當然，這些技術創新中就有大量來自歸國留學生和學者的貢獻。
The engineering constructions, the innovations in discovery, the changes of our lives, or whoever，these technology achievements in China was depending on globalized openness and cooperation instead of operating behind closed doors. Particularly, a large number of these technological innovations have come from the returned students and scholars。
依靠這些創新突破，中國成為當之無愧的科技大國，但在成為真正意義上的科技強國與科技巨頭之前，還有一段很長的路要走。這也就是知乎用戶達成的第二個共識。
With these innovative breakthroughs, China has become a well-deserved major tech power, but it still has a long way to go before becoming a real tech leader. This is the second consensus。
中國在數位技術、行動支付技術等應用市場跑在全球前列，但在科技創新能力、與基礎科學研究上仍然存在短板，跟歐美先進水平有明顯差距。
China leads the world in digital technology, mobile payment technology and other application markets, but there are still shortcomings in technology innovation ability and basic scientific research, and there is a significant gap with the advanced level of Europe and America。
首先，科技創新能力代表是一個國家科技發展潛力和創造力。據世界智慧財產權組織發布的《2018 年全球創新指數》顯示：中國從 2016 年開始位列前 25 位，並持續上升到 2018 年的第 17 位，進步最大的指數是普通基礎建設、高新技術進口、知識型工人、知識技術產出等。但劣勢也十分明顯，主要集中在監管、高等教育、生態可持續性、信貸、海外投資、創意服務等領域。
First of all, the technology innovation ability represents a country's potential and creativity. According to 「The Global Innovation Index 2018」 released by the WIPO (World Intellectual Property Organization)， China has continuously risen to the 17th, with ranking in the top 25 in 2 years ago.The most advanced indexes are General infrastructure，High-tech net imports，Knowledge workers，and technology outputs. However, it also has obvious disadvantages, mainly in the fields of regulatory environment，tertiary education，ecological sustainability，credit, overseas investment and creative services。
可以說，我國的科技創新水平增長明顯，已經接近了科技強國水平，但是顯然和目前的科技體量排名相比，還有一定差距。
In one word, Chinese technology innovation ability has grown significantly, but compared with the current technology ranking, there is obviously still a gap。
比如中國的醫療行業。中國是人口大國，醫療技術的進步關乎國計民生。但截至 2016 年，中國 HAQ(醫療服務可及性和質量指數)在 195 個國家中排名第 48 位，與歐美先進國家差距明顯。
Or take China's medical industry for example. The progress of medical technology is important to the national economy and the people's livelihood，especially in China such a large population country. However, as of 2016, China's HAQ (accessibility and quality index of medical service) ranks 48th among 195 countries, which is obviously different from Europe and America。
再者，基礎科學研究能力是科技創新的源動力，基礎科學的價值在於探索人類的認知邊界。因此，基礎科學研究是無國界的，關乎的是全人類的利益。在這個核心地帶，中國的研究依然還在艱難的爬坡階段。
Moreover, the ability of basic scientific research is the source power of technology, and an important guiding to the cognitive boundary of human beings.Therefore, basic scientific research has no borders and is related to the interests of all mankind. In this core area, Chinese research is still in the difficult climbing stage。
去年 10 月 23 日深夜，騰訊創始人馬化騰在知乎上提了一個問題：「未來十年哪些基礎科學突破會影響網際網路科技產業？產業網際網路和消費網際網路融合創新，會帶來哪些改變？」，引發了全民關注。
In the late night of October 23, 2018, Mr. Ma Huateng asked a question on Zhihu，which had aroused the public concern. The question is: 「Which basic scientific breakthroughs will affect the Internet technology industry in the next decade? What changes will be brought about by the integration and innovation of industrial Internet and consumer Internet? 」
這是一個明顯的信號，中國科技行業已經充分意識到基礎科學的重要性，甚至這種重視已經上升到國家層面。目前中國國家發改委已經啟動了促進基礎科學發展的「十四五」發展規劃的前期研究，將基礎科學的創新和研究融入國家發展大局中來。
This is a highly visible signal that China is fully aware of the importance of basic science, even at the national level. At present, the National Development and Reform Commission of China has launched the preliminary study of "14th five-year plan" to promote the development of basic science, integrating the innovation and research of basic science into the big picture of national development。
同時，需要再次強調的是，科技創新是世界性的、時代性的，發展科技必須具有全球視野，聚四海之氣、借八方之力。從科技大國到科技強國的路上，中國也在不斷深化國際科技交流合作，擁抱全球科技創新人才。眼下，無論是中國政府還是學界、企業界，都對高端科技人才表現出強烈的渴求。
At the same time, it needs to be emphasized again that technological innovation is universal and epochal. The development of technology must be based on a global vision, gather the spirit and strength from the world. On its way to being a tech leader, China has also been deepening international exchanges and cooperation, and embracing global talents. At present, whatever the Chinese government, academia and business community ,have shown a strong desire for top technology talents。
當下，中國科技界已經匯聚了來自全世界的尖端科技人才，為中國科技發展貢獻了無窮的才智。在牛津大學，中國留學生超過 800 人，都是推動未來科技發展的潛力股。你們的未來是光明的，但使命也是艱巨的。你們的來處——正在崛起的中國——有大把的機會等著你們去開拓，也有大把的挑戰等著你們去攻克。
Now, China has gathered a lot of talents from all over the world, who contributing endless Intelligence to the technology development. In Oxford，There are more than 800 Chinese overseas students，and whey are all potential drivers of future technology. I will tell you，your future is bright, while your mission is also challengeable. The rising China has so many opportunities and challenges waiting for you。
立足中國科技變革大潮中，我們熱切的盼望你們能夠在學成之後，回到祖國的懷抱，為中國乃至世界科技的進步貢獻一份才智和力量，中國能否成為下一個科技強國、科技巨頭，這一天能否早日到來，由你們來決定。
In the wave of Chinese technology revolution, we eagerly look forward to your return after graduation,and your talent and strength for China and even the world. Whether China can become the next tech leader, and can the day come soon, it is up to you。
謝謝大家。
Thank you for your listening。