Grain prices go the way of the oil price
穀物價格再現油價攀高之勢
EVERY morning millions of Americans confront the latest trend in commodities markets at their kitchen table. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, rising prices for crops—dubbed "agflation"—has begun to drive up the cost of breakfast. The price of orange juice has risen by a quarter over the past year, eggs by a fifth and milk by roughly 5%. Breakfast-cereal makers, such as Kellogg's and General Mills, have also raised their prices. Underpinning these rises is a sharp increase in the prices of grains such as corn (maize) and wheat, both of which recently hit ten-year highs. Analysts are beginning to ask, as they have of oil and metals, whether higher prices are here to stay.
每天早晨，餐桌前的數百萬美國人都要直面農產品市場的最新趨勢。美國農業部稱，農作物價格上漲（被稱為「農產品通脹（agflation）」已經開始引發早餐成本的升高。在過去一年裡，橙汁價格上漲了25%，蛋價漲了20%，牛奶價格則漲了約5%，早餐穀類食品製造商如Kellogg's和General Mills也紛紛提價。導致這些產品價格上漲的原因是玉米和小麥等穀物價格的飆升，這兩類穀物的價格近期均升至十年來最高水平。分析人士現已開始懷疑穀物價格是否會像石油和金屬價格一樣一路走高。
On the face of it, that is an odd question. After all, if the world runs short of corn or wheat, farmers can simply grow more, weather permitting. That is exactly what they have been doing. In the coming year, the International Grains Council, an industry group, estimates that global production of grains will reach a record of 1,660m tonnes, well above last year's figure of 1,569m. But demand for grain is growing even faster. The council reckons it will reach 1,680m tonnes this year. In three of the past four years, demand has exceeded supply.
從表面上看，發出這種疑問有悖常理。畢竟，即便全球玉米或小麥都消耗一空，農民們在氣候條件允許的情況下還可再種植，而且事實也的確如此。據國際穀物委員會（一家行業團體）估計，全球穀物產量今年底將達到16.6億噸的歷史最高水平，大大超過去年的15.69億噸。但是穀物需求增長速度更快，該委員會估計今年將達16.8億噸，而在過去四年中有三年穀物都出現了供不應求。
The culprit is the growing use of grains to make biofuels, such as ethanol. Most grains are used as food either for people or for livestock. But the increase in human consumption has been slowing for decades as population growth moderates. Demand for animal feed, meanwhile, has grown steadily, as more people in booming countries such as China grow rich enough to afford meat.
供不應求的根本原因是穀物在生物燃料如乙醇製造方面的應用不斷增多。大多數穀物一般都用作人類食品或者家畜飼料，但數十年來隨著人口增長趨於緩和，人類穀物消耗量的增長已逐漸減緩。與此同時，由於在像中國這樣的新興國家中能吃得起肉的富人越來越多，動物飼料方面的需求也持續增長。
Demand for biofuel feedstocks, by contrast, is soaring. The amount of corn used to make ethanol in America has tripled since 2000; ethanol distilleries now consume a fifth of the country's corn crop. And America is only one of 41 countries where governments are encouraging the use of biofuels to reduce oil consumption.
不過相比之下，生物燃料原料需求的增長要更為迅猛。在美國，用於製造乙醇的玉米總量自2000年以來已經翻了兩番，現在該國有1/5的玉米都為乙醇製造廠所消耗。而且，目前全球共有41個國家為降低石油消耗都鼓勵使用生物燃料，美國不過是其中之一。
As a result, demand for grains has accelerated. During the 1990s, when oil was cheap and biofuels unheard of, demand grew by 1.2% a year, according to Goldman Sachs. But in recent years, it has increased by 1.4%, and over the next decade, Goldman projects, it will rise by 1.9% annually.
穀物需求的增長因此也就加快了。據高盛公司統計，上世紀90年代在石油很便宜且生物燃料尚未引起人們注意的情況下，穀物需求每年的增長幅度是1.2%，而近幾年則達到1.4%。高盛公司預計今後十年穀物需求每年將增長1.9%。
Farmers are struggling to keep up. The Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister company of The Economist, projects that demand for corn, at least, will continue to exceed supply until at least 2009. Moreover, even to produce as much corn as they are now, farmers are growing less soya and wheat, and so pushing up the prices of those crops too. With all the main grains to feed poultry and livestock becoming more expensive, the cost of meat and eggs is rising, and so it goes on.
農民對此也是疲於應付。據《經濟學家》姐妹刊物《經濟學家情報》預測，至少在2009年以前，至少玉米將持續供不應求。此外，由於農民正減少大豆和小麥的種植，因此將來即使不降低玉米產量，此類農作物的價格也會不斷上揚。隨著餵養家禽和家畜的各種穀物越來越貴，肉蛋價格也正在並將繼續上漲。
When demand was growing more slowly, farmers could meet it through gradual improvements in their yields. But to cope with today's boom, yields will have to rise much faster, or farmers will have to bring more land into production.
在過去，當需求增長趨緩時，農民可通過逐步增加產量來應對。但要應付當前的飛速增長，那就必須要麼大大加快增產速度，要麼讓農民拿出更多的土地用於生產。
Both are possible. Greater adoption of genetically modified strains of corn and wheat, for example, could improve yields. But they are expensive and politically controversial. There is also quite a bit of fallow land to be sowed, especially in developing agricultural powers such as Brazil and Ukraine. But those countries are far from the biggest markets and their idle land tends to be found in areas with poor transport links. A strong price signal will be needed to overcome such obstacles and induce extra supplies.
這兩種情況都有可能。比如說，加大玉米和小麥基因改造技術的應用可提高產量，但經改造的產品價格都比較昂貴，而且容易引發政治爭議。休耕地也還有相當多，在發展中農業大國如巴西、烏克蘭更是如此，但這些國家距離大型農產品市場都很遠，而它們的閒置耕地往往又都位於交通落後地區，因此只有很明顯的價格變化，才能促使這些地方增產。
But even if new land is planted, argues Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs, it will not necessarily reduce the cost of grains. Since high oil prices and generous government subsidies ensure that biofuels are profitable, any extra grain will be used to make more of the stuff. That will not dent the oil price, since the volumes remain tiny compared with global oil consumption. Instead, the price of biofuels has risen to that of petrol, and the price of corn and crude oil, the main feedstocks for the two, have converged. For grain prices to fall, Mr Currie argues, either governments must pull the plug on biofuels programmes, or the oil price must fall.
然而，高盛公司的傑弗裡庫裡（Jeffrey Currie）認為，即使增加耕地，也不一定會降低穀物價格。由於油價高、政府補貼多使得生物燃料有利可圖，因此增收的穀物都會被用於生產生物燃料原料。這並不會使油價下跌，因為石油總量相比全球石油消耗而言仍然很少。相反，生物燃料價格已經逼近石油價格水平，而作為兩者的主要原料，玉米和原油的價格也已持平。庫裡認為，要想穀物價格下降，前提條件要麼是政府限制生物燃料生產，要麼是油價下跌。
Neither seems very likely in the near future. This week America's Congress is debating whether to double its targets for biofuel production. At the same time, the oil price rose to its highest level in ten months, thanks to a strike and other disruptions in Nigeria. The chaos in the Niger delta, it turns out, has a surprising amount to do with the price of eggs.
從短期來看，這兩種情況似乎都不太可能發生。本周，美國國會將討論是否將生物燃料產量指標再增加一倍。與此同時，由於奈及利亞發生罷工和動亂，石油價格也攀升至十個月來的最高水平。誰曾想到，尼日三角洲地區的動蕩竟能引起蛋價上漲呢？！