Every year, millions of people are smuggled around the world. Our inability to stop the smuggling of people represents one of the greatest policy failures of modern history.
每年，有多達數百萬人口，被走私至世界各地。我們無力解決人口走私問題。這是現代史上最重大的政策失敗。
Consider this, we have an International Convention on migrant smuggling, that's been widely ratified and signed by over a hundred states. We have international organisations and NGOs that dedicate themselves full time to stopping migrant smuggling. Each year hundreds of millions of dollars are spent on projects and programmes to try to stop people smuggling, and yet every year inexorably, inevitably, year on year, the number of people smuggled around the world increases and doesn't decrease.
試想，我們確立了打擊移民走私的國際公約，該公約得到100多個國家的批准和籤署。我們還建立了專門致力於打擊移民偷運的國際組織和非政府組織，每年投入數億美元在打擊移民偷運的項目和計劃上。然而不可避免地，年復一年，日復一日，偷渡者數量依然逐年增加，水漲船高，絲毫不見減少。
In this presentation, I'd like to suggest one reason for this gap between policy and reality, and that reason is we have fundamentally misunderstood what migrant smuggling is.
此次演講中，我想指出，政策和現實之間出現如此落差的原因。原因就是，我們從根本上誤解了什麼是移民偷運。
We don't understand who is involved, we don't understand why they're involved, and we don't understand how the process works. And I'd like to suggest to you that perhaps an alternative and better way to understand migrant smuggling is to view it as a business, in which every single person is incentivised to make money.
我們不知道到底有誰參與其中，我們不知道這些人為何參與其中，我們也不知道整個流程如何運作。在此我想提出，理解移民偷運的一種更好的方法。那就是，將其看作一種商業模式。參與這條產業鏈的每個人，都是因為有利可圖。
Before doing that, let me reflect briefly on why this topic matters, why should you care about migrant smuggling.
首先我要先解釋，為何這一問題如此重要，為何我們要重視移民走私販運？
Well I think there are at least three reasons. The most important reason is that migrant smuggling kills people, whether it's people drowning off Christmas Island on the way to Australia, or people drowning in the Mediterranean moving between North Africa and Europe, whether it's people dying of heat exhaustion in the Arizona desert between Mexico and the United States of America, or whether it's through asphyxiation and suffocation in the back of trucks in Eastern Europe. Migrant smuggling kills thousands of people each year.
我認為，原因至少有三。最重要的原因是，移民走私致死事故頻發。無論是為前往澳大利亞，在聖誕島海域溺水喪生的人；或是北非往來歐洲，在地中海溺水身亡的人；無論是橫穿美墨邊界，在亞利桑那州的沙漠中因中暑脫水而殞命的人；或是藏於東歐的貨車箱內，因缺氧窒息而死的人。移民偷運每年造成數千人死亡。
Those people who aren't killed, those people who make it, those people who find work in destination countries, find themselves exploited and vulnerable, whether it's men working as cockle pickers in Morecambe Bay, or as ship breakers in Bangladesh; whether it's women working as prostitutes in Thailand, or as domestic servants in the Gulf states; whether it's children working as camel jockeys in the United Arab Emirates, or in weaving factories in Pakistan. Migrant smuggling exposes individuals to enormous harm and enormous vulnerability.
而那些倖免逃生的人，那些成功抵達目的地國家的人，即便在當地找到工作，也難免成為遭受剝削的受害者。男性偷渡者，無論是在莫克姆灣做拾貝者，或是在孟加拉國做拆船工；還有女性，無論是被迫在泰國賣淫，或是在海灣國家做家傭；還有兒童，無論是在阿聯做駱駝騎師，或在巴基斯坦的紡織廠做童工。移民偷運帶來的非法勞工，極易受到極大的傷害與剝削。
【注釋1】英格蘭的莫克姆灣貝類價值頗高，但那裡風高浪急，拾貝充滿危險。2004年， 23名中國非法勞工在拾貝時，被海潮無情地奪去了生命。
【注釋2】全球三分之一的報廢船隻都在孟加拉國完成拆卸，勞工高強度長時間工作，每年幾十例事故死亡，日薪僅3美元。而拆船時肆意排放的汙染物，讓工人的患癌率日益升高。
But a second reason you should care about migrant smuggling is that it risks undermining national security as well. Very often the people who smuggle individual human beings also the same people who smuggle drugs and who smuggle weapons to. Migrant smuggling undermines the exercise of national sovereignty, it moves into your countries large number of people, who you don't know about their whereabouts, or what they're doing or how they entered the country. National security concerns very important indeed.
需要重視移民走私的第二個原因是，會對國家安全構成威脅。很多情況下，販運走私人口的蛇頭，同樣也是毒品和武器的走私犯。非法移民販運損害了國家主權的行使，將大批外來人口帶入你的國家。而這些人的行蹤下落，在你的國家做些什麼，以及如何進入你的國家，你對這一切一無所知。這確實給國家安全帶來了極大的威脅。
A third reason why migrant smuggling matters, and I think especially in this European context in which we are find ourselves today, is that migrant smuggling is one reason why we have a rising wave of xenophobia and discrimination against migrants in many of our societies. One of the reasons we have that rising wave of discrimination is because too many people are entering our countries without authorisation.
移民販運問題之所以重要的第三個原因，尤其是在我們如今所處的歐洲環境下：移民偷運，正是當今歐洲社會所存在的，針對移民的仇外和歧視日益高漲的原因之一。歧視現象愈發頻繁和明顯的原因之一，是有太多外來人口，未經授權非法入境並滯留。
So for at least three reasons we should care about migrant smuggling and try to understand how to stop it.
因此，至少出於以上三點，我們必須重視移民偷運問題，並理解如何防止移民偷運。
Let me now suggest you that an alternative way to understand migrant smuggling, that might give us some insights into how to stop migrant smuggling, is to view it as a business.
接下來我要指出，理解移民偷運的一種特殊方式。這種理解方式，對如何防止移民偷運，或許有所助益，那就是將其視作一門生意 。
And I'd like to do this by following the money. I'm going to follow the money through the smuggling process from the beginning to the end.
要做到這點，就得"跟著錢走"。追蹤整個人口偷運過程中，從源頭到終點的資金流向。
Let's start at the beginning.
咱們從頭說起。
How much does migrant smuggling cost? Well it of course costs vary. If you want me to smuggle you across a local border in Africa, I'll do it for a bag of rice. If you want me to smuggle you from Beijing to Vancouver, I'll charge you 30 dollars. But I can also adjust my costs. If you're wealthy, if you've got money upfront, I'll fly you directly from Pakistan to your Australia. If you haven't got much money, then we can travel over land, we can go via Indonesia, perhaps we can take a boat for far cheaper price. The costs of migrant smuggling can be adjusted to the depth of your pocket.
有人想偷渡，要花多少錢？當然啦，世界各地都不同。如果你在非洲，想讓我帶你偷偷穿過國境，只需一袋米，就能達成願望。如果想讓我把你從北京偷運到溫哥華，那你得支付30美金。不過，這筆錢並不是固定的。你要是有錢，一次性付清款項，那我能讓你從巴基斯坦直飛澳大利亞。你要是沒啥錢，也可以選擇陸路，通過印尼中轉，再坐船到達目的地，價格便宜得多。偷渡費用收取多少，取決於你的錢袋有多鼓。
How do migrants raise these not in substantial amounts of money? Most migrants, indeed most people, don't have 10 or 20 thousand dollars simply in savings. Sometimes migrants turn to moneylenders. It's risky because then of course you find yourself in debt to those moneylenders. Much more often migrants turn to friends and families, and friends and families use their savings, sell property, sell land, sell jewellery, in order to provide the money for migrants to make that journey and to pay a smuggler.
那這些潛在偷渡者，是如何籌措到這筆資金的呢？大多數偷渡者，實際上大多數人，可能都無法直接掏出 1-2萬美金的存款。於是，有人便去借高利貸。此舉很有風險，因為你會陷入欠高利貸被追債的窘境。所以，大多數人都會求助於親朋好友，親戚朋友掏出積蓄，變賣土地房產，珠寶首飾，將這些錢交給偷渡者，以支付蛇頭路費。
The immediate implication is this, that migrants' friends and families have a stake in the process. They have made an investment and they expect a return on that investment.
這便意味著，偷渡者的親戚朋友，在這一過程中，產生了利害關係。他們對偷渡者進行了投資，並期望投資有所回報。
Once migrants have raised the money from their generous friends and families, how's the money exchanged and handed over to the smuggler?
一旦偷渡者從慷慨大方的親朋好友那裡籌措到足夠的路費，這些錢又是如何支付給蛇頭的呢？
Well ten years ago, this was very straightforward. You paid the smuggler the full amount of money upfront, "Here's $10,000. I'd like you to take me from Pakistan to the UK." The risk of course is a smuggler disappears, takes the money, and you're left in Pakistan.
十年前的交款方式，十分簡單直接。在旅途開始前，一次性付清所有費用。"這是1萬美金，把我從巴基斯坦帶去英國吧。"但這很有風險，指不定蛇頭就拿錢跑路了，而你留在巴基斯坦，哪也去不了。
The process has evolved in response to customer concerns. About five years ago, you would put a deposit down, perhaps 5,000 dollars. "Here's $5,000. When I get to the UK, I will give you the money that's owed, the further $5,000. "
後來因為客戶不滿，這一方式逐漸出現變化。約五年前，開始盛行預先支付訂金，假設為5千美金，"這裡是5千美金，等我抵達英國後，再付你剩下的5千美金。"
Here you of course were exposing yourself to a different risk and the risk is this - you arrive in the UK, you owe me 5,000 dollars, and are forced into prostitution until you pay me back the 5,000 dollars.
但這又讓偷渡者陷入另一種風險。當你到達英國後，欠我5千美金還不上，於是你便被迫賣淫，直到償清我的5千美金。
Once again the process has evolved over the years in response to customer-client concerns. And let me tell you how it works today in Pakistan.
近年來，依然因為客戶不滿，交款方式再次出現變化。我來講講，現在巴基斯坦的人蛇集團是如何運作的。
In Pakistan today, no money is exchanged between migrants and smugglers, until the migrant has arrived safely in his or her destination. The families of migrants deposit the full amount of money with a third party, often the moneylender or a trader. Once the migrant arrives in his destination, makes a call to confirm that they've arrived, the money is then released by the third party to the smuggler.
現在在巴基斯坦，偷渡者與偷運分子之間，沒有直接的金錢交易。直到偷渡者安全抵達目的地後，他們的家人才會將全部費用轉給第三方，通常是放債人或商販。一旦偷渡者抵達目的地，並打電話確認他們已安全到達，這時候第三方才會把錢交給蛇頭。
If you think about it, what I'm talking about here is a money back guarantee on smuggling. If you make it, I get the money, if you don't, I get no money at all. The money will be returned from the third party back to the family, because the process has failed. The money back guarantee on migrant smuggling.
細想一下，這相當於偷渡路費的退款擔保。偷渡成功，蛇頭收錢。偷渡失敗，蛇頭不收錢。第三方會將這筆費用返還給偷渡者的家人。因為偷渡失敗了，這就是對移民偷運的退款保證。
Now the smuggler, while the money is being held in this escrow account, it is rather like eBay, it's being held in an escrow account by a third party, the smuggler still has to make this process work. In fact the process has got to work, otherwise he's not going to get the money being held by the third party.
當錢款被代管平臺扣留保管的時候，這很像eBay運作模式，錢款會由第三方暫時扣留。蛇頭會想方設法讓偷渡成功。事實上，偷渡必須成功，否則偷運分子無法從第三方拿到錢。
Now we often think of smugglers as evil-minded, all-encompassing criminals, James Bond sorts of baddies, people with three nipples, stroking white cats in Bosnia and so on and so forth. The truth is a lot different from that.
當我們提到"蛇頭"、"人口販子"，總會覺得他們是萬惡不赦，無惡不作，邦德那種大壞蛋。或是長著三個乳頭，在波士尼亞擼白貓之類的怪人。事實卻並非如此。
Smugglers or at least the people you will make initial contact with when you want to think about a journey are often travel agents. And they'll close the doors of their office, and then perhaps do a little bit of business on the side once the office is closed, and they work with an entire network of people, someone has to provide a passport, either a forged passport or a stolen passport that's been tampered, someone has to provide a visa which is another person in the network.
所謂"蛇頭"，或至少當你在考慮偷渡時首先接觸聯繫的那群人，其實是來自旅行社。等他們歇業關店了，可能就開始做點兒地下生意。他們通常隸屬於國際人口走私販賣集團，其中有專人提供護照，要麼是偽造的假護照，要麼是被篡改的失竊護照。在這條人口走私鏈中，也有專人提供籤證。
Think about the last time you took an international flight not within European Union. You had to show your passport three times. First when you checked in, secondly as you went through security, and thirdly just before you got on the airplane.
試想你上一次搭乘國際航班前往歐盟以外的國家，總共需要出示護照三次：第一次是辦理登機手續，第二次是通過安檢時，第三次是在你登機前。
Potentially three people who need to be bribed to make sure that the process works smoothly and you get on the aeroplane. You may also need to bribe people in transit countries if you're changing aeroplanes and also in destination countries too.
因此，至少需要買通三位工作人員，確保一切順利進行，你才能登上前往目的地的飛機。如果要轉機，你還得買通 過境中轉國家的工作人員，以及目的地國家的海關官員。
And let me make this point clear. Migrant smuggling is about corruption not just in origin countries, but also in destination countries too, in Schiphol, in London Heathrow, in Paris Charles de Gaulle, as much as it is in the countries from which migrants are coming.
我想明確一點，偷運非法移民的背後，不僅是偷渡客所在國的腐敗，也有目的地國家的腐敗。阿姆斯特丹史基浦機場，倫敦希斯羅機場，巴黎戴高樂機場，這些國家與偷渡客的來源國同樣腐敗不堪。
So we have a situation where the money is being held by a third party, the smuggler needs to pay a network of people in order to make this process work. The smuggler is taking a financial risk. He is laying out money in order to make the process work, and only once the process works will he retrieve the money from the third party.
好了，現在的情況是，錢款在第三方處寄存保管，蛇頭要打點人脈，賄賂買通利益鏈中的很多人，以確保一切順利。他們冒著財務風險，為將來獲取利潤，自己先投入一些錢。只有流程一切順利，他們最終才能從第三方處收回資金。
This means the process has to work, the smuggler cannot risk the process not working, otherwise he loses the investment he's made in the network. It means a smuggler has to use able and capable passport forgers, and visa suppliers and people that he knows can get people through airports. It also probably means that the smuggler needs to move multiple numbers of people. If I move one person and it fails, I've lost my money. If I move 10 people and one doesn't get through, at least the 9 have got through and I get some of the money back. Smugglers are incentivised to move people on mass and not as individuals.
這意味著，偷渡必須成功。蛇頭難以承受偷渡失敗的後果。一旦失敗，他們將失去投入到關係網中所有的錢。這就意味著，蛇頭所找的護照偽造者和籤證供應者，以及機場的海關官員，都必須能力過硬，毫無破綻。這也意味著，蛇頭通常會一次性偷運一大群人。偷運一人失敗，所有錢都打了水漂。偷運十人，失敗一人，至少另外九人的錢還能收得回來。為謀求利益最大化，蛇頭通常偷運一大群人，而非單個個人。
Once the process has been set up, we are clear in the research, migrants move to destination countries such as ours and they almost always find work.
我們在研究過程中發現，偷渡一旦完成，這些來到目的地國家的非法移民幾乎全都能找到工作。
A reality of the economies in which we all work and live, is that they're increasingly divided between a formal economy the sorts of things that I'd guess most of us work in, and an informal economy, where people are willing to work for less than the minimum wage, with no social rights where people may be exploited and discriminated against, where people are working in dangerous and difficult and dirty jobs. Even during recession there are jobs that we consider to be below us. I'd rather sit at home, watch television and take my welfare check than clean a toilet, because I consider that to be demeaning.
我們生活工作的這個經濟體，如今的分化越來越嚴重。明面上，是我們絕大多數人生活工作的正規經濟；暗地裡，是非正規的地下經濟。地下經濟中，非法勞工的工作收入遠不及最低薪資標準。他們毫無社會權利，受盡歧視與剝削。他們做著最危險，最困難，最骯髒的工作，那些即便是經濟大蕭條，我們連碰都不願碰的工作。我們寧願整天在家看電視，領著社會福利，也不願做廁所清潔工。因為在我們眼中，這種工作太低級。
There are all sorts of jobs in our economies for which we rely on irregular migrants and people who have been smuggled to do the work. So these migrants find work. They don't just find work, but they find work that pays them enough money to begin to send home money as well.
在我們的經濟中，有諸多此類工作，都得依靠無序移民和偷渡來的非法移民。這些偷渡者總能找到工作。他們不僅能找到工作，他們找到的工作，薪水還足以讓他們寄錢回家。
Listen to these statistics, and a wonderful quote on this I interviewed someone in Pakistan relatively recently, and he said to me there is no better way in Pakistan today, to invest $10,000 than to pay for your son to be smuggled to the UK. There is no better way to invest that money.
請聽以下數據，這是我最近採訪一位巴基斯坦偷渡客的原話。他告訴我："在巴基斯坦，沒有其他方式，能比花1萬美金讓兒子偷渡去英國，投資回報更大的。"沒有其他方式能比偷渡回報更大。
On average it takes two years of money sent back for migrants to pay off the initial fee of, let's say 10,000 dollars. After that fees been paid off, the money sent back by migrants on average doubles household incomes every year.
平均來說，只需兩年，就能賺回當年的偷渡成本費，比如1萬美金。一旦偷渡費回本，接下來，偷渡者每年寄回老家的錢，還會翻上一倍。
Where else are you going to get a return on your investment like that?
還有什麼方式能比這個回報率更大？
So this follow the money through the process, from the beginning how much it costs, to how the money is raised, to how the exchange system works, to how migrants find jobs, and to how migrants send the money back through the process to close the circle.
我們追蹤了這條偷渡鏈的資金走向，從一開始偷渡路費的多少，到如何籌措這筆資金，再到路費怎樣交到蛇頭手中，偷渡者如何找工作，最後到黑工將錢寄回老家，形成了環環相扣的地下產業鏈。
What does this tell us about migrant smuggling? How does this business approach make it a bit more of an understandable process? I think it tells us three principal things.
這告訴了我們關於移民偷運的什麼？將其視作"商業生意"，是否更易於我們理解移民偷運問題？我認為，這揭露了三大要點。
Firstly, it tells us this is a network. It's not just a relationship between a migrant and a smuggler. It involves migrants' families and friends, it involves a network of people who work with smuggler to make the process work. It involves employers in countries such as ours, it even probably involves consumers such as you and me as well.
首先，這是一條巨大的產業鏈。絕非只是蛇頭和偷渡者之間的關係，還牽涉到偷渡者的親戚朋友，牽涉到與蛇頭展開合作的整個人口販運集團網絡。這牽涉到目的地國家的僱主，甚至可能牽涉到像你我這樣的普通消費者。
Secondly, this approach tells us that, every single person in the process is deeply incentivised to make it work. Migrants have to get work, have to save money and have to send money home, because they're socially obliged to do so to their family and friends. Families and friends have put a large amount of money upfront as a stake and an investment and they would expect a return.
其次，這一模式還告訴我們，為從中獲利，這條產業鏈上的每個人都會務必確保偷渡成功。偷渡者必須找到工作，必須攢下積蓄寄回老家，因為他們有義務回饋自己的親友。親戚朋友為他們的"路費"預付了一大筆錢，作為一種投資，他們當然會期待回報。
The network of people working with the migrants smugglers must make this work, otherwise next time they won't get any money out of him, and he'll turn to another person within the network. The smuggler for sure has to make it work, otherwise he won't get the money that's been deposited with a third party. Unscrupulous employers in countries such as ours take huge profit from this. They can employ people to do dirty work, pay them less than minimum wage and give them social welfare too.
那些在這條產業鏈上與蛇頭合作的人，也必須確保偷渡成功。否則，蛇頭下次不會再給他們塞錢，而是轉去賄賂這條產業鏈中的其他人。蛇頭當然也必須確保偷渡成功，否則就無法從第三方處拿回錢款。而我們國家的無良僱主，也從中牟取巨額利潤。他們僱傭黑工去做骯髒粗活，付出的工資遠低於最低標準，還濫用他們的社會福利。
And even you and I benefit. The reason your pizza last night cost 10 euros rather than 15 euros, is because in the kitchen someone was washing the dishes for less minimum wage. We benefit too. Across the range, if you look at this as a business, everybody is incentivised to make it work.
甚至我們普通人也從中受益。比如，你昨晚吃的比薩，之所以只花10歐，而不是15歐，都是因為那家披薩店的洗碗工，薪資低於法定標準。我們也從中受益。如果將非法移民販運看作商業生意，牽涉其中的每個人都為牟利而必須確保成功。
I think the third implication and these are policy implications, we need to start thinking about how to disrupt the money flow if we want to stop migrant smuggling.
第三個要點，關於政策。要想打擊遏制移民偷運，我們必須考慮如何截斷資金流動。
Let's educate migrants and their families that this is not a gilt-edged investment, it's a risk investment that may not pay off.
首先，要對偷渡者及其家人展開教育，偷渡並非什麼穩當投資，而是可能毫無回報的風險投資。
Let's try to undermine the trust system around which is escrow third party processing system has developed.
其次，針對錢款的交易方式，要打破圍繞第三方機構的信任機制。
Let's try to tackle corruption, which means that people both in origin countries and destination countries are willing to take extra money in order to break the law.
還要根治腐敗問題。正是由於偷渡者的來源國和目的國的腐敗問題，有人願意接收賄賂，鋌而走險，違法犯罪。
Let's focus on employers who are giving migrants jobs, exploiting them and giving them the money to send back in the first place.
再次，要關注招聘黑工的僱主。這些無良僱主恣意剝削非法勞工，還給他們工資寄回家鄉。
Let's look at remittance flows to understand how remittances work, and try to make sure they're directed towards constructive development orientation, rather than to negative criminality.
最後，要重視並了解匯款機制是如何運作的。監管匯款的來源與去向，確保款項流入建設性發展方向。而不是作為犯罪用途。
The bottom line is this, ladies and gentlemen, I think we can all agree that migrant smuggling is a modern-day scourge. It's clear to me that policy over the last ten years has failed lamentably, and it seems to me what we need is a fresh new approach to migrant smuggling. The bottom line is this, if you want to stop migrant smuggling, you need to reduce the bottom line.
女士們先生們，這就是關鍵所在。移民偷運，是破壞現代社會的一大禍害。顯而易見，過去十年來的管制政策都以失敗收場。我們需要的是以一種全新的方式看待並解決移民偷運。這就是關鍵所在，要想遏制移民偷運，就必須使其獲利最小化。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。