編者語：
歐盟間人員的自由流動是英國脫歐公投時爭議最大的議題之一，也是歐盟內個別成員國人才流失到鄰近更富裕國家（例如德國）的原因。但這個說法在多大程度上是公平或準確的呢？作者從各方考究這個日漸升溫的問題，並嘗試探討難民移民可能的命運。同時移民問題要分清，歐盟內部人員流動與難民移民是兩個不同的問題。對待難民移民雖然更多從人道主義的高度出發，但是根據現實，難民也在為飽受人才流出之苦的成員國帶來積極作用。敬請閱讀。
文/Stefanie Linhardt（《The Banker》歐洲編輯）；編譯/王思權Europe on the move：the economics of EU migration
Immigration is a topic that always gets emotions running high. The UK’s vote in June to leave the EU can be attributed partly to a perception that immigration has had a detrimental impact on the country’s society and economy. But not all migration is the same, and not all migrants make the same economic and social impact.
移民是一個總是讓情緒高漲的話題。 英國在6月份投票離開歐盟的部分原因就有，移民對該國的社會和經濟產生了不利影響。 但並不是所有的移民都是一樣的，並不是所有的移民都會產生同樣的經濟和社會影響。
At the heart of the Brexit debate was the right of member state citizens to travel freely under the EU’s single market and free movement of people framework. Together with the overwhelming flow of Middle Eastern refugees (mainly to Germany), it became part of an even broader discussion within the union.
在英國脫歐辯論的核心是成員國公民在歐盟市場下自由旅行的權利和人們自由移動的範疇。 加上中東難民（主要是去德國）的過多性湧入，移民話題成為聯盟內最為廣泛討論的話題。
The economics of free movement人口自由移動的經濟學
Marianne Thyssen, EU commissioner for employment, social affairs, skills and labour mobility, has little doubt. 「Across the union, we have numerous people searching for a job but we still have 2 million unfilled vacancies,」 she says. 「Labour mobility allows a more efficient allocation of human resources within Europe. It means more opportunities for workers but also for employers.」
Marianne Thyssen，歐盟負責就業、社會事務、勞動力技能與流動的委員長毫不懷疑這點。 「在整個歐盟中，有很多人尋找工作，但我們還有200萬的勞動力空缺未填補」她說。 「勞動力流動允許在歐洲更有效地分配人力資源。 這意味著工人和僱主都有了更多的機會。」
According to Eurostat data from 2008, employment is the main reason European citizens move within the EEA – with or without having previously secured a job in the destination country – followed by family reasons. Italy and the UK are the countries that have the highest percentage of people moving there for work (data for Germany was not available), and Norway for family reasons.
根據2008年歐盟統計局的數據，尋找就業是歐洲公民在歐洲經濟區內移動的主要原因 -無論前往前有沒有在目的地國家得到工作機會 -其次是家庭原因。 義大利和英國是因工作移民佔比最高的國家（德國的數據不可得），挪威則是因家庭原因移民佔比最高的國家。
For businesses, the idea of matching people with jobs where they are available creates a market of 500 million potential employees, rather than the more limited pool of citizens in one country. It is no wonder that lobby group BusinessEurope, which represents Europe’s national business federations, sees free movement within the EEA as a huge advantage.
對於企業來說，將人們與工作相匹配的想法創造了一個有5億潛在員工的市場，而不是把潛在人才庫局限於一個國家中。 難怪，代表歐洲國家商業聯合會的遊說集團「BusinessEurope」認為歐洲經濟區內的自由流動是一個巨大的優勢。
「The single market is a cornerstone of European prosperity,」 says BusinessEurope director-general Markus Beyrer. 「Free movement of people is as important for a well-functioning single market as the free movement of goods, services and capital. In fact, the free movement of people not only allows companies to get access to the skills they need to generate more growth and more employment, it is also essential to be able to provide services across Europe’s internal borders.」
「共同市場是歐洲繁榮的基石」BusinessEurope總裁Markus Beyrer說。 「人們的自由流動對於運作良好的統一市場，與貨物、服務和資本的自由流動一樣重要。 事實上，人們的自由流動不僅允許公司獲得他們所需的技能，以產生更多的增長和更多的就業，而且對是否能在整個歐洲內部提供服務也至關重要。」
However, David Goodhart, head of demography, immigration and integration at UK think tank Policy Exchange, argues that businesses』 ability to choose from a larger pool of skilled or unskilled workers is not necessarily to the benefit of the average member of the society 「if that advantage to the employer means that wages are lower and investment in education and training of the domestic workforce falls off, which it obviously tends to do」.
然而，英國智庫「Policy Exchange」的人口、移民和融合部主管David Goodhart認為，企業擁有更大的人才庫不一定對社會普通成員有利「如果這個對僱主的優勢意味著工資降低，對家庭勞動力的教育和培訓投資下降的話（而這也是顯然傾向於這種結果）」。
Not for jobs不是為了就業的移民
And what about those not moving for jobs, but for family, education or other reasons? Within the EEA, people can move for different reasons – but not to receive social benefits, says Ms Thyssen.
那些不是為了工作的移民，而是為了家庭、教育或其他原因呢？在歐洲經濟區，人們可以出於不同的原因，但卻不是為了獲得社會福利，Thyssen女士說。
「The right of free movement is a citizens』 right but it is subject to conditions,」 she says. 「If you are working, then you have the right to reside in the country where you work and you cannot be discriminated against. But if you do not have a job and you cannot show that you have sufficient means to live independently, then you do not have the right to stay in another member state and have access to their social benefits.」
「自由運動的權利是一個公民的權利，但它必須有條件限制」她說。 「如果你在工作，那麼你有權在你工作的國家居住，並且不能被歧視。 但是，如果你沒有工作，你不能證明你有足夠的手段獨立生活，那麼你就沒有權利留在另一個成員國，並獲得他們的社會福利了。」
Citizens are entitled to unemployment benefits only in the country where they have last worked. However, their duration of employment in another member state has to be taken into account under the so-called 『aggregation rule』, creating another cause for discord.
公民只能在他們最後工作的國家享有失業救濟金。然而，他們在另一個成員國的就業期限基於「匯總規則」下，也需要被考慮。這也是造成歐盟不和的另一個原因。
In this respect, the European Commission is examining whether there should be a minimum period of employment in the new member state before the aggregation rule kicks in and is working on legislation to better coordinate social security rules in Europe, which are expected to be presented before the end of the year.
在這方面，歐洲委員會正在審查在「匯總規則」啟動之前，在新成員國是否應該有一個最低僱用期限，並且正在制定立法，以便更好地協調歐洲的社會保障規則，這些規則預計將在年底前提交。
Is EU migration beneficial?歐盟內移民是否有益？
Madeleine Sumption, director at Oxford University’s Migration Observatory analysis body, suggests that while there have been attempts to measure the economic benefits of migration, ultimately it is difficult to find reliable and comparable answers in areas such as the impact on labour markets, productivity and innovation due to a lack of accurate data.
牛津大學移民觀察分析機構主任Madeleine Sumption表示，雖然已經嘗試衡量移民的經濟效益，但由於缺乏準確的數據，最終難以在諸如對勞動力市場、生產力和創新的影響等領域找到可靠和可比的答案。
「That said, there are some semi-theoretical comparisons that we can make across countries,」 she adds. 「High-skill immigration is more economically beneficial than low-skill immigration, as are migrants with high employment rates, because someone who is working is going to be paying taxes and is less likely to require support from the state.」
「這就是說，我們可以在一些國家之間進行一些半理論的比較，」她補充說。 「高技能移民比低技能移民更有經濟效益，自身就業率高的移民也是如此，因為有工作的人將要繳稅，而且不太需要國家的支持。
Looking at EU free movement migrants, at 38% Luxembourg is the country with the highest percentage of migrants to have found a job before emigrating, followed by Switzerland at 37% and the UK at 23%, according to Eurostat’s 2008 figures.
根據歐盟統計局2008年的數據，在歐盟自由移民移民中，38％的盧森堡移民在移民前找到工作的，其次是瑞士37％和英國23％。
While more detailed data on the fiscal impact of the EU’s free movement is not available across all EU countries, research has been conducted into the cases of Sweden and the UK, two countries with different pull factors for immigration.
雖然更詳細的、關於歐盟自由流動的財政影響的數據不是在所有歐盟國家都找得到，但對瑞典和英國的研究已經開始進行了。這兩個國家有著不同的移民拉動因素。
Sweden has higher social expenditure (28.1% of gross domestic product [GDP] in 2014) than the majority of free movement countries that are Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) members (where the average is 24.2% of GDP), and as such, could be seen as a more favourable destination for older migrants or those with lower expectations of finding employment. The state provides more support, which could suggest that the impact of migration to Sweden could be fiscally negative.
與經濟合作與發展組織（經合組織）成員國的大多數自由流動國家（其平均社會支出佔國內生產總值的24.2％）相比，瑞典有著更高的社會支出（2014年國內生產總值的28.1％）。因此，瑞典可以被看作是老年移民或者就業期望較低的移民的更有利的目的地。國家提供了更多的支持，這可能表明移民對瑞典財政的影響可能是負面的。
Yet a discussion paper by Joakim Ruist, migration researcher at Gothenburg University’s department of economics, argues that the average net fiscal contribution to Sweden of EU10 migrants (that is, from Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) in 2011 was positive at an average of Skr35,290 ($4117) per migrant, as was that of the 『old』 EU14 members to the tune of Skr64,235 – all considering benefits used such as sickness support, pensions, unemployment support, schooling and care.
然而，哥德堡大學經濟系遷移研究員Joakim Ruist的討論文件認為，對於歐盟10國的移民（即來自保加利亞、賽普勒斯、捷克共和國、愛沙尼亞、匈牙利、拉脫維亞、立陶宛、羅馬尼亞、斯洛伐克和斯洛維尼亞）在2011年平均每位能為財政貢獻35,290瑞典克朗（4117美元）。與「舊的」EU14成員的64,235人均瑞典克朗一樣，把使用的福利，如疾病支持、養老金、失業支持、學校教育和照料都考慮入內了。
「In terms of migration, in particular from EU countries, there seems to be a big mix-up [between] availability of public services at times of demographic change and austerity, and what those who are coming to the country are contributing in terms of taxes and are taking out in services,」 says Christian Dustmann, professor of economics at University College London and director of UCL’s Centre for Research and Analysis on Migration.
「在移民方面，特別是來自歐盟國家的，都得綜合考慮在人口變化和緊縮時期公共服務的可用性、來到以後以稅收衡量貢獻程度的建設性與從社會服務中索取性，在這三者中衡量。」倫敦大學學院經濟學教授，UCL移民研究與分析中心主任Christian Dustmann說。
A positive for the UK?那對英國是積極的嗎？
A country that has become a centre of migration research thanks to its often Eurosceptic stance, the UK has comparatively low income taxes. OECD data from 2015 found the UK on average has the third lowest taxes, putting it well below the area average (26.31% of GDP versus 38.19%). Switzerland – which sees high numbers of German immigrants (26,640 in 2013 according to the OECD) where the income tax rate is among the four highest in the region – has the lowest tax rates, followed by Ireland.
作為一個由於其經常的歐式立場成為移民研究中心的國家，英國的所得稅相對較低。 2015年經合組織數據顯示，英國平均稅率排在最低的第三位，遠低於地區平均水平（GDP的26.31％，相比於平均38.19％）。 瑞士 –有大量的德國移民（根據經合組織，2013年為26,640），德國稅率第四高 - 稅率最低，其次是愛爾蘭。
UCL’s Mr Dustmann and Tommaso Frattini, associate professor in the department of economics, management and quantitative methods at the University of Milan, were the first to publish in-depth analysis of the fiscal impact of immigration in the UK in 2013. This concluded that EEA migration to the UK has been fiscally positive from 1995 to 2011 to the tune of £8.8bn ($11.41bn). Updated calculations in 2014 halved the figure to £4.4bn but migration-critical think tank MigrationWatch UK disputed the figures and published its own estimates, which put the total fiscal impact of EEA migrants for 1995 to 2011 at -£13.6bn.
UCL的Dustmann先生和米蘭大學經濟學，管理和定量方法部副教授Tommaso Frattini先生首次發表了對2013年英國移民財政影響的深入分析。結論是，歐洲經濟區 從1995年到2011年，到英國得移民財政貢獻達到88億英鎊（114.1億美元）。 2014年的更新計算將數字減少了一半，達到44億英鎊。但移民領域關鍵的智庫「MigrationWatch UK」對這些數據進行了爭議並公布了自己的估計，公布的結果是1995年至2011年EEA移民的總財政影響為負的136億英鎊。
But EU commissioner Thyssen says that EEA migration has 「boosted the GDP in the host countries in the EU15 by about 1% in the long run」.
但歐盟委員Thyssen說，歐洲經濟區的移民「從長遠來看，使歐盟東道國的國內生產總值提高了約1％」。
Brain drain人才流失
Still, the impact of migration is felt in both the origin country as well as the destination. Across EU countries, the member state seeing the most inter-EU emigration is Romania. According to OECD data, some 293,521 Romanians left the country for other EEA members in 2013. Although the overwhelming majority (139,500) moved to Germany, the strong numbers for Italy (59,700) and Spain (30,035) suggest that language similarities play a significant role when choosing a country to migrate to.
然而，移民的影響在原籍國和目的國都能明顯感受到。 歐盟之間移民移出最多的成員國是羅馬尼亞。 根據經合組織的數據，2013年約有293,521羅馬尼亞人離開了本國成為其他歐盟成員國的居民。雖然絕大多數（139,500）遷移到德國，但義大利（59,700）和西班牙（30,035）的這個數字表明當選擇遷移目的國時，語言相似性發揮著重要作用。
And while in destination countries it is more beneficial for the economy to have the highly skilled migrate, this can be problematic for the origin countries. Romania’s finance minister Anca Dana Dragu told The Banker in May that the country has to deal with an 「exodus of young doctors to western Europe」, while large numbers of education workers are also leaving the country.
而在目的地國家，高級人才的移民對目的國可能是有利的，這對原籍國卻可能造成問題。 羅馬尼亞財政部長Anca Dana Dragu在5月份向《The Banker》表示，該國必須處理「年輕醫生逃往西歐」的問題，同時大量的教育工作者也正在離開該國。
While Romania’s economy has not yet seen a correlation between migration and GDP growth – the contraction in the economy in 2009 and 2010 was related to the financial crisis – its population had already been shrinking before EU entry. International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows that since 1991, the Romanian population has been on the decline, from 23.5 million to 19.9 million in 2015.
雖然羅馬尼亞的經濟還沒有看到移民和國內生產總值增長之間的相關性--2009年和2010年經濟的萎縮受金融危機影響太大--其人口在歐盟入世前已經萎縮。 國際貨幣基金組織數據顯示，自1991年以來，羅馬尼亞人口一直在下降，從2350萬減少到2015年1 990萬。
An IMF report on the emigration impact on eastern Europe finds 「overall, emigration appears to have lowered potential growth and slowed economic convergence with the EU」 in countries in the south-east of Europe and the Baltics. Nearly 20 million central, eastern and south-eastern Europe (CESEE) nationals have left the region over the past 25 years. Some 80% of these migrants went to western Europe, according to the report, more than half of which moved to Germany, Italy and Spain.
國際貨幣基金組織關於東歐移民影響的報告發現，「整體來說，在歐洲東南部各國和波羅的海國家，移民問題似乎降低了經濟潛在增長，並減緩了與歐盟的經濟趨同」。 在過去25年中，有近2000萬中歐，東歐和東南歐國家（CESEE）的人民離開該地區。 根據報告，這些移民中約有80％移居西歐，其中一半以上移居德國，義大利和西班牙。
But an exodus of highly skilled and educated workers should encourage any government to try to lure their citizens back. In Romania, the government increased local wages in healthcare and education sectors to attract valuable emigrants to return, Ms Dragu told The Banker, adding that these structural policy measures have already sparked interest from Romanians to return.
但是，高技能和受過教育的工人的大量湧出應該迫使任何政府採取行動誘使他們的公民回來。 Dragu女士告訴《The Banker》，羅馬尼亞政府增加了醫療保健和教育部門的工資，以吸引珍貴的人才回國，還補充道，這些結構性政策措施已經引起了羅馬尼亞人回國的興趣了。
While return migration appears to have been limited in the CESEE region, according to IMF research, there is no consistent data available. Should policies and structural reforms such as those in Romania attract more workers back to their home countries, economies could benefit from 『brain gain』 – a transfer of knowledge from returning migrants to the local population.
根據貨幣基金組織的研究，移民回歸似乎在CESEE地區有限，但也沒有長期對應的數據來驗證。 如果諸如羅馬尼亞的政策和結構改革吸引更多的工人返回祖國，經濟可以從人才引進中受益 –使知識從返回的移民傳播到當地居民。
Another way in which origin countries are benefiting from migration is through remittance flows. According to the IMF, emigrants』 remittances back to their home countries have become important in many CESEE countries, particularly low-income ones. Furthermore, they appear to have 「promoted investment and, in some cases, supported consumption and facilitated financial deepening」, the IMF adds – although the benefits of remittances are another hotly debated topic.
原籍國家從移民中受益的另一種方式是通過匯款流動。 根據國際貨幣基金組織，移民匯款回本國，在許多CESEE國家，特別是低收入國家，已經變得很重要。 此外，這些資金似乎起著「促進投資，並在某些情況下，支持消費和促進金融深化」的作用。
The economics of refugee migration難民經濟
Movement within the EU is one topic, but the influx of refugees is a whole different ball game. Europe has given refuge to some 1 million migrants fleeing war and persecution in mainly Syria and Afghanistan, but also some African countries.
歐盟內部的移民是一個話題，但難民湧入卻是另一回事了。 歐洲已經接納了大約100萬逃離戰爭和迫害的移民。他們主要來自敘利亞和阿富汗，但也有一些非洲國家。
The bulk of them are making their way to Germany, not least since chancellor Angela Merkel said in 2015 that Europe’s largest economy was getting ready to welcome 800,000 refugees by the end of the year – some 441,900 ended up claiming asylum in 2015.
大部分的移民在前往德國，尤其是2015年，德國總理默克爾承諾歐洲最大的經濟體已準備好接納800,000名難民 - 大約441,900名要求庇護。
The flows are not slowing, despite agreements between the EU and Turkey for the latter to return migrants who reach Greece via Turkey, measures taken to make the journey through the EU from Greece or Italy more difficult and to share the burden of refugees across member states. Yet the EU’s decision to impose refugee quotas across its member states is facing criticism from the Visegrad group countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia), making the implementation of plans difficult.
儘管歐盟和土耳其之間達成了協議，讓後者返回從土耳其到達希臘的移民，採取措施使從希臘或義大利到歐盟更加困難，並在成員國間分擔難民的負擔，但人口流動並沒有放緩。同時，歐盟將其難民配額強加於其成員國的決定也受到來自捷克共和國，匈牙利，波蘭和斯洛伐克的批評，使計劃的實施變得更加困難。
「The economic case for today’s refugee migration from the Middle East is slim but we shouldn’t confuse refugee migration with our obligation as signatories of the Geneva Convention, which requires us to give refuge to people who flee persecution and war after having evaluated their cases,」 says Christian Dustmann, professor of economics at University College London and director of UCL’s Centre for Research and Analysis on Migration. 「Now whether that is economically beneficial for us or not is a secondary thought.」
「今天從中東難民移徙的經濟情況很少，但我們不應將難民移徙與我們作為日內瓦公約籤署國的義務混為一談。這個義務就要求我們在評估其案件後逃離迫害和戰爭的人提供避難」倫敦大學學院經濟學教授，UCL移民研究與分析中心主任Christian Dustmann說。 「現在經濟上，移民是否對我們有利，應該是次要的考慮。」
While the majority of refugees coming to Europe are men and women of working age, the economic benefits of refugee migration are in most cases not equal to those of EEA migrants.
雖然大多數來到歐洲的難民是工作年齡的男子和婦女，但難民移徙的經濟利益在大多數情況下不等同於歐洲經濟區內移民的。
「The big question is, how easily can these people get integrated and get jobs,」 says Madeleine Sumption, director at Oxford University’s Migration Observatory. 「When you compare people who have migrated for different reasons, refugees tend to find it more difficult to get work and to find work that reflects the education they have had in their countries of origin.」
牛津大學移民觀察所的主任Madeleine Sumption說，「最大的問題是，這些人在多大程度上能夠輕鬆融入社會並獲得就業機會。」當你比較因不同原因而遷移的人時，難民往往更難找到工作，找到與他們在原籍國教育水平匹配的對應工作。
Refugees do not move by choice and often lack local language skills, all of which is why these migrants are, at least initially, expected to be net receivers of public funds rather than contributors.
難民的遷徙是被逼無奈的，他們往往缺乏當地語言技能。這就是為什麼這些移民，至少初期，會被認為是公共財政的淨接收者，而不是貢獻者。
However, if those refugees become well integrated within the countries, the EU’s efforts to reach burden-sharing agreements across countries in the long run could see refugee migration help revive communities that have been been hit by emigration, as in the case of Riace, a village in Calabria, Italy.
然而，如果這些難民在各國內部得到充分融合，歐盟長期努力達成各國分擔負擔協議，可以看到難民移民能有效幫助恢復受移民移出打擊的社區，如在義大利的卡拉布裡亞Riace村莊。
Once a shrinking and ageing community with high unemployment, Riace welcomed thousands of migrants in the past 18 years – many from the Middle East and Africa – and is now thriving. More than 2000 have settled there and now make up the majority of the 2500 population, which allowed the reopening of bakeries, workshops and schools.
作為一度萎縮、老齡化、失業率高的社區，Riace在過去18年中歡迎成千上萬的移民 - 許多移民來自中東和非洲，並且現在正恍然一新，蓬勃發展。 2000多移民已經定居在那裡，佔了當地2500人口的大多數。使得一度消失的麵包店，車間和學校都能重新開始經營。
While with refugees the humanitarian argument has to be the strongest one for action, and infrastructure needs to be adapted to the new population requirements, some eastern European countries, which themselves have been hit by emigration, may well look to benefit from refugee migrants.
雖然對難民來說，人道主義必須是最重要的考慮因素，而且基礎設施需要適應新的人口需求，一些本身也受到移民的打擊東歐國家，很可能從難民移民中受益。（完）
文章來源：《The Banker》官網 2016年10月3日（本文僅代表作者觀點）
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