Who will be the next superpower - India or China?
下一個超級大國是哪個？印度還是中國？
資料圖
QUORA網站讀者評論：
Rajagopalan K Suryanarayan, works at Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
Both India and China wish to be super power. China is now a $ 11 trillion economy where as India is $2.25 trillion economy. In the following paragraph I will compare India and China.
印度和中國都希望成為超級大國。中國是一個11萬億美元的經濟體，而印度的經濟體量是2.25萬億美元。在下面一段中，我將對比一下印度和中國。
1.Indian GDP at 7.6% on 2015 -16 is highest. Whereas China’s GDP at 6.9% is second. But the economy of China is four times higher.
2.As per RBI 22%, of India are living below line. They are living with less than Rs3000 per month. Nearly 10000 villages do not have electricity. The whole of India will be electrifued by the end of this financial year. India is also taking up the project of providing quality electricity. Entire population is provided bank accounts. During 2016-17 with an allocation of Rs 2000 crores, is providing LPG to 1.5 crores of households. This will be continued for the next two years to cover 5 crore households. Whereas China too has poverty, but the percentage is less. One in every ten is living in poverty in China. Nearly 82 million are living below poverty line. They are living with less than 2300 yuan ($ 370). Two hundred thousand Chinese do not have electricity. Six million Chinese do not have clean fuel to heat and cook . Three quarters of global poverty reduction between 1995 to 2013 occurred in China. 12.5 million were moved from poverty in 2013 in China.
3.In steel production China is first with 803.3 million tons ranks first and India 89.58 million tons as on 2015, is third. With 280 million tons of cement production India is second largest and China with 2500 million tons stands first. With refining capacity of 12.54 Mbd is ranked second and India with 4.1 Mbd is ranked 5. China is refining 12.5% of global requirement and India 4.5%. In electricity China with 5398 billion Kwh is first and India with 871 billion Kwh is fifth .
1。印度GDP在2015-16年為7.6%，是全球最高的。中國的GDP為6.9%，位居第二。但中國的經濟體量是印度的四倍。
2。據印度央行的數據，22%的印度人民生活在貧困線以下。他們每月生活費不足3000盧比。近1萬個村莊沒有通電。到本財政年度末，印度將實現全境通電。印度也仍在努力進行高質量供電。所有人口將開立銀行帳戶。2016年至2017年，撥款2000億盧比向1.5億家庭提供液化石油氣。這將在未來兩年繼續下去，覆蓋50億家庭。中國也有貧困人口，但比例較低。在中國，十分之一的人生活在貧困之中。近8200萬人生活在貧困線以下。他們的生活費不足2300元(370美元)。20萬中國人沒有電。600萬中國人沒有清潔燃料取暖和做飯。1995年至2013年，全球減貧四分之三發生在中國，2013年中國有1250萬人擺脫了貧困。
3。在鋼鐵產量方面，中國以8.033億噸的產量排名第一，印度以8958萬噸排名第三。印度水泥產量為2.8億噸，位居第二，中國水泥產量為25億噸，位居第一。中國的煉油能力為12.54萬桶/天，排名第二，印度4.1萬桶/天排名第五。在電力方面，中國的發電量為5,398億千瓦時，印度為8,710億千瓦時，排名第五。
4.Both China and India are nuclear state and both are signatories to No First User of Nuclear bomb. China is ranked third militarily with a military personnel of 2,285,000 and reserve of 2,300,000, Aircraft of 2788, tanks 9150 and Subs 69. India is ranked fourth with military personnel of 1,321,000 and a reserve of 2,143,000, aircraft 1905, tanks 6464, Subs 15. China has ICBM but India is yet to produce one. Agni VI is in advanced stage of testing. India has Ballistic Missile Defence System. Only four countries US, Russia, Isreal and India has them. China is yet to develop one. Brahmos is another missile which do not have a deterrent or equalizer in China. India has two aircraft carriers whereas China has one.
5.Ten years before China was a two trillion US dollar economy. It has developed into the present eleven trillion economy. India too is 2.25 trillion dollars economy now and it's growth is fastest. India will take at least another eight years to reach 10 trillion dollar economy with a growth rate between 8 to 11% of GDP.
6.Chinese debt is huge. There is every possibility China will be trapped in debt. Now for every dollar of growth China has to incurr a debt of 6 dollars. The present debt is 245% of GDP which is disturbing. Indian debt is 61% of GDP which bis quite stable or safe.
7.At present China seem to be reaching fast the status of Super Power. But India is doing very well in all fundamentals . But to reach the Super Power status, if China because of its weak economic growth and huge debt get burst there is every possibility of China being derailed.
4。中國和印度都是有核國家，都是籤署了不首先使用核武器的國家。中國軍事排名第三，軍事人員228.5萬人，預備役23萬人，飛機2788架，坦克9150輛，潛艇69艘。印度排名第四，軍事人員132萬人，儲備214.3萬人，1905架飛機，6464輛坦克，15艘潛艇。中國有洲際彈道飛彈，但印度還沒有。烈火6飛彈處於測試的末期。印度有彈道飛彈防禦系統。只有美國、俄羅斯、以色列和印度這4個國家擁有這些系統。中國還沒有研發成功。布拉莫斯飛彈是又一個中國尚未擁有可威懾或可有效抗衡的武器。印度有兩艘航空母艦，中國有一艘。
5。十年前，中國是一個2萬億美元的經濟體。現在它已經發展到11萬億的規模。印度經濟規模達到了2.25萬億美元，增長速度也是全球最快。如果GDP的增長率維持在8%到11%之間，印度至少還需要8年的時間才能達到10萬億美元的規模。
6。中國的債務是龐大的。中國極有可能陷入債務困境。現在，中國每增長1美元，就必須背負6美元的債務。目前的債務是GDP的245%，這令人不安。印度債務佔GDP的61%，這是相當穩定和安全的。
7。目前，中國似乎正迅速接近超級大國的地位。但印度在所有基本面都做得很好。但在成為超級大國的路上，如果因為經濟增長疲弱和巨額債務而崩潰，中國完全有可能脫軌。
譯文來源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46435.html 譯者：Joyceliu
Pavan Addanki, Indian forever !!
As an Indian, I am fascinated by China and what is stands for in the modern world today. I keep reading stories of comparisons of India’s and China’s economy. Many have predicted that both will become bitter rivals in the near future and will aim to outdo the other. Some say that China already has a head start over India as it opened it’s economy very early, while India was late. Many say that China’s economy is many years ahead and it will take years for India to catch up with it.
But that depends on whether India really wants to catch up with China.
作為一名印度人，我對中國以及現代世界的標準非常關心。我一直在閱讀印度和中國經濟對比的故事。許多人預測，在不久的將來，這兩個國家都將成為死對頭，力爭超過彼此。有人說，中國已經比印度領先了，因為它開放的時間較早，而印度較晚。許多人說，中國經濟領先了許多年，印度要趕上中國需要很多年的努力。
但這取決於印度是否真的想趕上中國。
No one can accurately predict the future and how conditions will be (except if you are Nostradamus). But as an Indian, I can tell you one thing. I really don't care if China stays ahead of India in the long run. As an Indian, I am focussed only on India and looking for ways and means to make my country a heaven. Our politicians are focussed on making India a better place for present and future generations. They work tirelessly day and night to ensure better governance and more opportunities and economic freedom for our citizens. What matters is not whether our neighbour is a super power or not. What matters is that the citizens of our country stay happy, healthy, peaceful and prosperous. What matters is that every Indian gets to lead the life he/she wants, get to see the world, given freedom to pursue chosen opportunities and make their dreams come true etc. etc. And for that India will have to look inwards, and grow from within. Economic and democratic freedom should be available for all. There is no point in being a wealthy nation if wealth is unfairly concentrated in the hands of a few and many are left penniless. There is no point if a select few Indian individuals shine in the global stage while many other struggle to get opportunities and facilities to prove themselves.
And to India’s credit, it has not tried to compete with China or any other developing or developed nation. Sure, the Indian economy made a slow start. But it takes time for a flower to bloom and India’s economy is now picking up the pace and reaping the benefits.
沒有人能準確預測未來和未來的狀況(除非你是諾查丹瑪斯)。但作為一個印度人，我可以告訴你一件事。從長遠來看，我真的不在乎中國是否領先印度。作為一個印度人，我只關注印度本身，希望找到讓我的祖國成為人間天堂的方法。我們的政治家能夠努力把印度變成一個對現在和未來幾代人來說更好的地方。他們夜以繼日不知疲倦地工作，以確保我們的公民有更好的治理、更多的機會和經濟的自由。我們的鄰國是否是超級大國並不重要。重要的是我們國家的公民能夠幸福、健康、和平與繁榮。重要的是，每個印度人都能過上自己想要的生活，自由地追求自己選擇的機會，實現自己的夢想等等。如果財富不公平地集中在少數人手中，而許多人身無分文，那麼成為一個富裕國家毫無意義。如果只有少數印度人能在全球舞臺上大放異彩，而其他許多人難以獲得機會來證明自己，那就沒有意義了。
值得讚揚的是，印度從未試圖與中國、任何其他發展中國家或發達國家競爭。當然，印度經濟起步緩慢。但鮮花盛開需要時間，印度經濟現在正在加快步伐，並從中獲益。
I have nothing personal against China or Chinese (unless they act as a hindrance to our progress). China, like India has a rich cultural history and there is a lot both nations can learn by co-operating with each other, rather than fighting each other. We have similar problems and can work mutually for eradicating them. I have deep respect for Chinese as they are a hard working people. Like Indians, they too have made their mark in other countries, especially South East Asia.
My knowledge of China’s economy is very limited, and further more, I am not an economist so I really cannot predict how China’s and India’s economy will shape in the future. But I can tell you this, both nations are mature and know better that they must not compete with each other, but rather compete with themselves and ensure peace, harmony and prosperity for their respective citizens.
Jai Hind !!
我對中國或中國人沒有個人的反感(除非他們妨礙了我們的進步)。中國和印度一樣，有著豐富的文化歷史，兩國可以通過相互合作而不是相互對抗來學習很多東西。我們有相似的問題，可以共同努力消除問題。我很尊敬中國人，因為他們是勤勞的民族。和印度人一樣，他們也在其他國家，尤其是東南亞，留下了自己的印記。
我對中國經濟的了解非常有限，而且我不是經濟學家，所以我真的無法預測中國和印度的經濟在未來會如何。但我可以告訴你們，這兩個國家都是成熟的，更清楚地知道彼此不應該相互競爭，而應該跟自己競爭，確保各自國家公民的和平、和諧和繁榮。
印度必勝! !
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Prasanth Valsan K, B.E Computer Science, Sri Venkateswara College of Engineering (2009)
Neither India not China i
Neither nation is going to replace the United States as a global superpower in terms of military prowess, diplomatic clout and allies. India and China can at best be economic powers and aspire to provide a higher quality of life to their citizens. But it is going to take at least a century, if not more.
I would list the reasons for the US』 pre-eminence as follows:
既不是印度也不是中國
在軍事實力、外交影響力和盟友方面，這兩個國家都不會取代美國成為全球超級大國。印度和中國充其量可以成為經濟強國，為本國公民提供更高質量的生活。但這至少需要一個世紀，甚至更長時間。
我將列舉美國之所以出類拔萃的原因如下:
1 Location:
The US
The United States occupies a prime piece of real estate. It has direct access to 2 of the biggest oceans in the world and through them, direct access to the largest economies of Asia, Western Europe and to the resource rich African continent.
Look at the world map with the US at the centre and you will understand:
It has relatively weak and small neighbours namely Canada and Mexico that pose no military threat to its territory. More importantly, the US has settled borders which means that it does not have to station large divisions of its military at the border to secure it from an external invasion. Furthermore, it is the only nuclear weapon state in the Western hemisphere.
1位置:
美國
美國佔有最好的位置。它擁有直接進入世界上最大的兩個海洋的通道，並通過它們直接進入亞洲、西歐和資源豐富的非洲大陸。
看看以美國為中心的世界地圖，你就會明白:
它有相對弱小的鄰國：加拿大和墨西哥，對其領土不構成軍事威脅。更重要的是，美國已經劃定了邊界，這意味著它不必在邊界部署大量軍隊，防止外敵入侵。此外，它是西半球唯一的核武器國家。
India and China
Neither India nor China enjoys any of these benefits. Both nations have unsettled borders and both nations spend billions keeping the border secure, even from one another. Both nations have hostile nuclear armed neighbours. India has Pakistan and China to deal with. China has India, Russia and North Korea to deal with. So simplistic comparisons of military size with the US is moot. The American armed forces are placed all over the world whereas those of India and China are right at their respective borders. This limits the ability of both India and China to project power in other areas of the world.
印度和中國
印度和中國都沒有享受到這些好處。這兩個國家都有尚未劃定的邊界，兩國都花費了數十億美元來確保邊境安全，甚至是彼此兩國間的安全。這兩個國家都有擁有核武器的敵對鄰國。印度需要對付巴基斯坦和中國。中國需要對付印度、俄羅斯和朝鮮。因此，將軍事規模與美國進行簡單比較是毫無意義的。美國的軍隊分布在世界各地，而印度和中國的軍隊分布在各自的邊界。這限制了印度和中國在世界其他地區展現實力的能力。
Waqar Ahmad, Officially patriotic Muslim Indian citizen
The current and next super power for the near future is China.
This conclusion is based on economic, political, social parameters and on all of them China is way way ahead of India.
China has Poor's but they are less poor then ours.
Their dominance of world trade and international bodies is far superior. they have veto power in UN. If u will read the bylaws of newly formed BRICS bank then u will get to know that even in that they are on a strong footing against all other members including India.
當前和未來的超級大國是中國。
這一結論是基於經濟、政治和社會參數得出的，在所有這些方面，中國都遠遠領先於印度。
中國有窮人，但沒有我們貧窮。
他們在世界貿易和國際組織中的主導地位要優越得多。他們在聯合國擁有否決權。如果你讀過新成立的金磚銀行的章程，你就會知道，即便是在金磚銀行與包括印度在內的所有其他成員國的競爭中，他們都有著強大的基礎。
William Moore, Lived in China for a year
Well to answer the question you really must define superpower.
The answer is 「Nations that can extent there influence anywhere in the world.」
There really most likely wont be another super power for a long time.
But Nations that CAN be super powers if things go well for them.
要回答這個問題，你必須定義超級大國。
答案是「能夠影響世界任何地方的國家」。
很可能在很長一段時間內不會再有超級大國出現。
如果不出意外，這些國家有可能成為超級大國。
North America: Mexico.
South America: Brazil. (This one is actually a good bet on the same level as India and China)
Europe: Russia. (Its not likely but not impossible)
The Scandinavian nations. (As a group)
The EU itself. (They might actually be a super power already if you considered them one political group)
France or Germany. Maybe the UK.
北美:墨西哥。
南美洲:巴西。(實際上，這是一個與印度和中國不相上下的好選擇)
歐洲:俄羅斯。(可能性不大，但並非絕無可能)
北歐國家。(作為一個整體)
歐盟本身。(如果你把他們看作一個政治整體的話，他們可能已經是超級大國了)
法國或德國。也許英國。
Africa: Really South Africa is the only place that is even possible right now, and that’s a really long shot.
Middle East: Turkey and Iran if they can solve a lot of issues.
Asia: India. China. South Korea. Japan. Any of them can. I would have said China was the best bet before I lived there.
Having lived in all four nations now….
I’m not really sure about China. And I’m just going to say no to India for a while.
非洲:南非是目前唯一一個有可能實現的國家，雖然這個希望非常渺茫。
中東:土耳其和伊朗，如果他們能解決很多問題。
亞洲:印度，中國，韓國，日本。他們中的任何一個都可以。在我住在中國之前，我會說中國是最好的選擇。
我現在在這四個國家都生活過....
我不敢肯定中國行不行。但印度暫時沒可能。
Pravinchandra G Dhameliya, Project Manager (2015-present)
In near future next super power is China.
As of today China economy is more than 4 times that of India.
Their military is larger than India in all comparable measures.
China has intervened in many countries and they have self belief and crack down on any adversary if they feel to.
China already have veto power which India is not likely to get in Immediate future.
US is real superpower and they have many reservation towards India and they are more inclined to China.
Officially China GDP in absolute term is more than USA so they are actually economic superpower already what they need to do is built military power and international influence in strategic terms.
在不久的將來，下一個超級大國將是中國。
截至今天，中國經濟是印度的4倍多。
在所有可比較的指標上，他們的軍隊都比印度強大。
中國已經在很多國家進行了幹預，他們有自信，如果他們覺得有必要，就會打擊任何對手。
中國已經擁有否決權，而印度不太可能在近期內獲得。
美國是真正的超級大國，他們對印度有很多保留，更傾向於中國。
從官方的角度來看，中國的絕對GDP超過了美國，所以他們實際上已經是經濟超級大國了，他們需要做的是建立軍事力量和戰略上的國際影響力。
SHASHANK PAI K, Researched emerging Superpowers
India has a slightly greater chance Over China. Read why.
Excluding Contemporary Western Nations , the rest of the world thinks the two Major contenders for the potential superpower throne are China and India. While majority of them think China, the fastest growing economy as the next leading Nation , considerable amount of People beleive in India ,as they think India is comparable to it’s counterpart with similar history, demographics and more importantly India’s 『free』
與中國相比，印度的機會略大一些。為什麼呢。
除了當代西方國家，世界其他地區認為，中國和印度是潛在超級大國寶座的兩大競爭者。儘管大多數人認為中國是增長最快的經濟體，將成為下一個領先國家，但仍有相當多的人相信印度，因為他們認為印度可以與擁有相似歷史、人口結構的國家相媲美
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Jay Desai, studies at Sydenham Institute of Management Studies, Research and Entrepreneurship Education (2019)
Both the countries are going to be SuperPower before the end of this century.
China will be the first one to become a SuperPower. Thereafter India will also become a SuperPower in next two decades approximately.
Both the countries are economy powerhouses and they have a large armies. China is already a manufacturing house of the world. India is also likely to join this club as Make In India Initiative is already showing its results.
這兩個國家都將在本世紀末成為超級大國。
中國將成為率先成為超級大國。然後，印度也將在未來20年左右成為超級大國。
這兩個國家都是經濟強國，擁有龐大的軍隊。中國已經是世界製造業中心。印度也有可能加入這個俱樂部，因為「印度製造」計劃已經初見成效。
Chinmay, studied at The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India
I thought china will be the superpower . It is just because of non-circulation of money in India . If money got circulation then I am sure, next superpower will be India . I will explain with the example ..!
Think why Indians are not purchasing indian light for Deepawali, why they are purchasing Chinese light ..?
If you will go to market you see, Indian light cost ₹100 and Chinese light cost ₹40 …
If all people get employment then money get circulation, if nobody do Corruption then money get circulation …
And when all get high salary then they can purchase expensive also, and that's how people can serve Indian economy and money also get circulation …
In foreign countries there is huge circulation of money (employer gives huge salary, employees spend it on weekends then employer gives salary …) .
But in India people does not spend money and add to their stocks, corruption sucks whole of the economy and that's why India can't be superpower .
我以為中國會成為超級大國。原因就是印度沒有貨幣流通。如果貨幣流通，我相信下一個超級大國將是印度。我將用例子來解釋…
想想，為什麼印度人不購買印度造的燈，而要買中國的燈具?
如果你去市場，你就會發現，印度燈具成本要₹100，中國燈具成本只要₹40…
如果所有人都有工作，那麼錢就能得到流通，如果沒有人貪汙腐敗，那麼錢就能得到流通……
如果所有人都獲得高收入，他們也可以購買價格高的東西，這就是人們可以為印度經濟做的貢獻，錢也會得到流通……
國外有充分的資金流通(僱主給了高額的工資，員工在周末消費，然後僱主給發工資…)
但在印度，人們不花錢，只會存起來，腐敗把整個經濟搞得一團糟，這就是為什麼印度不能成為超級大國的原因。
Nitesh Ambuj, A Proud Indian
The world is becoming more interdependent rather than a country centric. India will have close ties with US, Japan, and European Union while China will have close ties with Russia, Islamic Nations, and African countries. But, the relationship will not be that simple. There would be business flow from India to China, India to Russia, China to US and so on.
Currency war will shift to war against cryptocurrency and entire world (govt organizations) will join hands to fight against that.
10–20 years down the line, there would be competition in space exploration and there would even be combined operation (US + China + India +European Union+..) to achieve greater feats.
世界正變得更加相互依存，而非以國家為中心。印度將與美國、日本和歐盟保持密切聯繫，而中國將與俄羅斯、伊斯蘭國家和非洲國家保持密切聯繫。但是，這種關係不會那麼簡單。商業從印度流向中國，印度流向俄羅斯，中國流向美國等等。
貨幣戰爭將轉向加密貨幣的戰爭，整個世界將攜手對抗。
10-20年後，太空探索領域將會出現競爭，甚至會出現聯合作戰(美國+中國+印度+歐盟+..)，以取得更大的成就。
Faraz Yusuf Khan, Dil hai Hindustani.
China.
1.GDP per capita of China is $12,880 while India lacks behind at $5,885
2.China is the fastest growing economy while India is the second fastest growing economy
3.According to International Monetary Fund China is the second largest economy while India is the 7th largest economy.
4.United States owes more than $1 Trillion USD to China
5.Chinese political will is iron-clad, they have been flexing muscles in South China Sea confronting both Japan and United States. While India is a peace loving country who has never initiated a first strike war in all it’s existence
6.China has a considerably larger nuclear arsenal than India and also has about 5? nuclear submarines with India just having one that too on lease from Russia
7.China already has a permanent United Nations Security Council seat while India is a long way from having one.
中國
1。中國的人均GDP為12,880美元，而印度的人均GDP為5,885美元
2。中國是增長最快的經濟體，印度是增長第二快的經濟體
3。根據國際貨幣基金組織的數據，中國是第二大經濟體，而印度是第七大經濟體。
4。美國欠中國的債務超過1萬億美元
5。中國的政治意志是鋼鐵鑄造的，他們一直在南中國海與日本和美國對抗。印度是一個熱愛和平的國家，從來沒有主動發動過空襲戰爭
6。中國的核武庫比印度大得多，擁有大約5艘核潛艇，印度只有一艘核潛艇，還是從俄羅斯租借的
7。中國已經擁有聯合國安理會常任理事國席位，而印度離這個席位還有很長的路要走。
Aakash Mitra, studied at M.S.Ramaiah Institute of Management
I will give you short and crisp answer for your question. China is the next superpower, as a matter of fact China is a superpower. All this while they haven’t worked much with foreign relations but now things are changing and they are also focused on foreign relations. India on the other hand has lot of issues which needs to be tackled and solved. Foreign debt is the biggest challenge above all as we have huge debts which makes us less credit reliant country and our per capita income is also less as compared to other many other developing nation. So in a nutshell China is way ahead of India despite if we discuss about their infrastructure, exports, defense system and hence it’s a bitter pillow to swallow that China has upper edge then India
讓我來簡短而乾脆地回答你的問題。中國會是下一個超級大國，事實上中國已經是超級大國了。雖然他們在外交方面做得不多，但現在情況正在發生變化，他們也關注外交關係。另一方面，印度有很多問題需要解決。外債是最大的挑戰，因為我們有巨額債務，這使我們對信貸的依賴程度降低，我們的人均收入也低於其他許多發展中國家。所以簡單地說，儘管我們討論中國的基礎設施、出口、國防體系，但中國遠遠領先印度。因此，中國比印度有優勢，這是一個難以接受的事實
Anonymous
I think India may be the next superpower. It is so, because China has an older population, spoiled environment and almost no water reserves. China really needs water and natural gas. India’s chances are limited by the un-organized systems in specific entities and needs to work hard. India’s advantages are that it has a young population, natural resources and water (though it has to be noted that water is fast disappearing).
我認為印度可能是下一個超級大國。因為中國人口老齡化，環境汙染嚴重，而且幾乎沒有水資源儲備。中國急需水和天然氣。印度受到某些散亂無組織的系統的限制，需要發憤圖強。印度的優勢在於它擁有年輕的人口、自然資源和水資源(儘管必須指出，水資源正在迅速消失)。
外文連結：https://www.quora.com/Who-will-be-the-next-superpower-India-or-China