For the previous two American presidents, the war in Yemen seemed like an afterthought. Barack Obama backed the Saudi-led coalition fighting on behalf of Yemen’s government against the Houthi rebels. But it was a cynical decision meant to blunt Saudi anger over the nuclear deal he reached with Iran in 2015. Then came Donald Trump, who resisted calls to curtail American support for the war. Instead he signed huge arms deals with Saudi Arabia.
對前兩任美國總統來說，葉門戰爭似乎是事後才想起來的。巴拉克•歐巴馬(Barack Obama)支持沙特領導的聯盟，代表葉門政府打擊胡塞(Houthi)叛軍。但這是一個憤世嫉俗的決定，目的是緩和沙特對他2015年與伊朗達成的核協議的憤怒。然後是唐納·川普(Donald Trump)，他拒絕了削減美國對伊拉克戰爭支持的呼籲。相反，他與沙烏地阿拉伯籤署了巨額武器交易。
Joe Biden has promised a different approach. In a wide-ranging speech at the State Department on February 4th, Mr Biden excoriated the 「humanitarian and strategic catastrophe」 of the war in Yemen, now in its seventh year. There was no hyperbole in his diagnosis. More than 112,000 people have been killed in the fighting. With the economy devastated, four out of five Yemenis rely on aid to survive. Collapsing health and sanitation systems caused a years-long cholera outbreak; the United Nations warns of incipient famine.
喬•拜登(Joe Biden)承諾採取一種不同的方式。2月4日，拜登在美國國務院發表了一篇內容廣泛的演講，他痛斥葉門戰爭帶來的「人道主義和戰略災難」，葉門戰爭已進入第七年。他的診斷沒有任何誇張之處。超過112,000人在戰鬥中喪生。隨著經濟的崩潰，五分之四的葉門人依靠援助生存。健康和衛生系統的崩潰導致了長達數年的霍亂疫情;聯合國警告即將發生饑荒。
To take Mr Biden at his word, America will no longer be complicit in this. It will continue to sell defensive arms to Saudi Arabia, which the Houthis have targeted scores of times with drones and missiles, including an attack on February 10th that targeted the airport in Abha. But Mr Biden pledged to end 「all American support for offensive operations」, including arms sales. He also reversed the Trump administration’s eleventh-hour decision to label the Houthis a terrorist group and tapped a respected diplomat, Timothy Lenderking, to serve as his special envoy for Yemen.
相信拜登的話，美國將不再是這一事件的同謀。它將繼續向沙烏地阿拉伯出售防禦性武器，胡塞武裝已經多次以無人機和飛彈為目標，其中包括2月10日針對阿巴哈機場的襲擊。但拜登承諾將結束「美國對進攻性行動的所有支持」，包括武器銷售。他還推翻了川普政府在最後一刻決定將胡塞武裝定性為恐怖組織的決定，並任命受人尊敬的外交官蒂莫西·倫德金(Timothy Lenderking)擔任他的葉門問題特使。
Much will depend on the details of his policy. If America merely cuts off the flow of 「smart」 bombs, the Saudis can continue dropping dumber ones. If it goes further, though, it could hobble the Saudi war machine. Between 2015 and 2019 the kingdom was the world’s largest arms importer, according to figures collected by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think-tank. Around three-quarters of that came from America, with another 13% from Britain.
這在很大程度上將取決於他的政策細節。如果美國僅僅切斷「智能」炸彈的供應，沙特就可以繼續投放更笨的炸彈。不過，如果它走得更遠，可能會阻礙沙特的戰爭機器。根據智庫斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所(Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)收集的數據，2015年至2019年期間，沙特是世界上最大的武器進口國。其中四分之三來自美國，另外13%來自英國。
Years of lavish spending mean the kingdom has all the tanks and warplanes it needs. But it still needs other things from America, such as munitions and spare parts. Mr Biden has already paused a $478m deal for 7,500 guided missiles announced in the waning days of the Trump administration. And the Saudis still rely on American help for everything from identifying targets on the battlefield to keeping their kit in shape. If America stops maintaining Saudi jets, half of the kingdom’s air force could be affected, estimates Tom Beckett of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank in London.
多年的揮霍意味著這個王國擁有所需的所有坦克和戰機。但是它仍然需要美國的其他東西，比如軍需品和備件。拜登已經暫停了川普政府任期即將結束時宣布的一項價值4.78億美元的7500枚飛彈交易。此外，從戰場上的目標識別到裝備的完善，沙特在所有事情上都依賴美國的幫助。倫敦智庫——國際戰略研究所的Tom Beckett估計，如果美國停止維護沙特的噴氣式飛機，該國一半的空軍可能會受到影響。
At best, though, this would ease a conflict that had reached an impasse anyway. The United Arab Emirates (UAE)had been the most effective partner in the coalition. But it largely withdrew from the war in 2019, leaving the Saudis to muddle along against an intransigent foe. The Houthis have been fighting the Yemeni state for decades and have shown little appetite for compromise. Other Yemeni groups are also vying for power. Months of UN-backed peace talks have not produced a deal.
不過，最好的情況是，這將緩解已經陷入僵局的衝突。阿拉伯聯合大公國(UAE)一直是聯盟中最有效的合作夥伴。但它在2019年基本上退出了戰爭，留下沙特人應付一個頑固的敵人。胡塞武裝幾十年來一直在與葉門政府作戰，並沒有表現出妥協的意願。其他葉門組織也在爭奪權力。數月來，聯合國支持的和平談判沒有達成任何協議。
America’s about-face on Yemen may matter more for the future of its partnership with Saudi Arabia. Forged in 1945, when Franklin Roosevelt met King Abdulaziz aboard an American cruiser in Egypt’s Great Bitter Lake, it has grown dysfunctional since the turn of the century. The attacks of September 11th 2001—overseen by the Saudi-born Osama bin Laden and carried out by mostly Saudi hijackers—led many Americans to associate the kingdom with terrorism. Eighteen months later George W. Bush invaded Iraq, over the objections of some Saudi officials, who feared (correctly) that it would destabilise the region.
美國在葉門問題上的態度大轉變，可能對其與沙烏地阿拉伯未來的夥伴關係更加重要。1945年，當富蘭克林·羅斯福在埃及大苦湖的美國巡洋艦上會見了阿卜杜勒阿齊茲國王時，該組織建立了。自世紀之交以來，該組織已經變得功能失調。2001年9月11日的襲擊由沙特出生的奧薩馬·賓·拉登監督，主要由沙特劫機者實施，導致許多美國人將沙特王國與恐怖主義聯繫在一起。18個月後，喬治·w·布希(George W. Bush)不顧一些沙特官員的反對，入侵了伊拉克。沙特官員擔心(這是正確的)這會破壞該地區的穩定。
Still, the Saudis remained friendly with Mr Bush. Not so with his successor. They were furious in 2011 when, as revolution brewed in Egypt, Mr Obama called on Hosni Mubarak, its longtime dictator, to step down. It seemed to them a hasty betrayal of an American partner—one that left them worried about their own status. A far bigger rupture came in 2015, when Mr Obama signed the deal under which Iran curbed its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. For Mr Obama it was a legacy-defining achievement. For the Saudis it was a reckless boost to their arch-nemesis, one that offered Iran the prospect of legitimacy and economic growth.
儘管如此，沙特仍與布希保持著友好關係。但他的繼任者卻不是這樣。2011年，在埃及醞釀革命之際，歐巴馬要求其長期獨裁者胡斯尼•穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)下臺，這讓埃及人非常憤怒。在他們看來，這似乎是對美國合作夥伴的草率背叛，讓他們擔心自己的地位。更大的裂痕出現在2015年，當時歐巴馬籤署了一份協議，根據該協議，伊朗限制其核計劃，以換取解除制裁。對歐巴馬來說，這是一項決定政治遺產的成就。對沙特來說，這是對他們宿敵魯莽的推動，為伊朗提供了合法性和經濟增長的前景。
No surprise, then, that the Saudis were happy to see Mr Obama go. They spared no effort to charm Mr Trump. Unusually for an American president, he made his first foreign trip to Saudi Arabia, where his hosts feted him with a traditional sword dance and a bizarre glowing orb. The president’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal was well received in the kingdom. After the murder in 2018 of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist dismembered by Saudi agents inside the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul, Mr Trump helped shield the government from consequences.
因此，沙特人樂於看到歐巴馬下臺也就不足為奇了。他們不遺餘力地取悅川普。對於一位美國總統來說，他首次出訪的目的地是沙烏地阿拉伯，在那裡，他的東道主為他表演了傳統的舞劍和一個奇異的發光球體。總統退出核協議的決定在沙特受到好評。2018年，沙特記者賈馬爾•卡舒吉(Jamal Khashoggi)在沙特駐伊斯坦堡領事館內被沙特特工肢解，在那之後，川普幫助政府避免了後果。
Yet Mr Trump was hardly a reliable partner either. The Saudis (and other Gulf states) were shaken in 2019 when he did not retaliate for an Iranian attack on their oil facilities. And his embrace turned Saudi Arabia into a partisan issue in Washington. Many Democrats, and some Republicans, want to see the kingdom punished for the carnage in Yemen and Mr Khashoggi’s murder. Mr Biden himself said in a presidential debate that he would treat it like a 「pariah」.
然而，川普也很難說是一個可靠的合作夥伴。2019年，沙特(和其他海灣國家)震驚了，因為他沒有對伊朗對其石油設施的攻擊進行報復。他的支持讓沙烏地阿拉伯成為華盛頓的一個黨派問題。許多民主黨人和一些共和黨人希望看到沙特為葉門的大屠殺和卡舒吉的謀殺案受到懲罰。拜登本人在一次總統辯論中表示，他會像對待「賤民」一樣對待中國。
That is unlikely. Americans may be exasperated with Saudi Arabia, but it remains a big oil producer and a useful intelligence partner. Mr Biden cannot simply cut ties. Nor, however, can he avoid confrontation. He plans to re-enter the nuclear deal with Iran. And he will probably keep up his criticism of the kingdom’s human-rights record, as it seems to have produced a result: the release on February 10th of Loujain al-Hathloul, a women’s rights activist. Mr Biden’s challenge will be to find a path that neither indulges the kingdom’s worst impulses nor reinforces its worst fears.
這是不可能的。美國人可能會對沙烏地阿拉伯感到惱怒，但它仍然是一個重要的石油生產國和有用的情報合作夥伴。拜登不能簡單地斷絕關係。然而，他也無法避免對抗。他計劃重新與伊朗籤署核協議。而且他可能會繼續批評沙特的人權記錄，因為這似乎已經產生了一個結果:婦女權利活動家Loujain al-Hathloul於2月10日被釋放。拜登面臨的挑戰將是找到一條既不縱容沙特最壞的衝動，也不加劇其最壞恐懼的道路。