Many people face the news each morning with trepidation and dread. Every day, we read of shootings, inequality, pollution, dictatorship, war and the spread of nuclear weapons. These are some of the reasons that 2016 was called the "Worst. Year. Ever." Until 2017 claimed that record --
每天早晨，很多人都面對著 充滿不安和恐懼的新聞。 每天，我們都會讀到槍擊案， 不平等、汙染、獨裁統治、 戰爭和核武器擴散的消息。 這些是 2016 年 被稱為「史上最糟糕的一年」的部分原因。 直到 2017 年再創新高——
00:35
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
00:36
and left many people longing for earlier decades, when the world seemed safer, cleaner and more equal.
這使得很多人不禁 懷念幾十年前的日子， 那時世界看來更安全，清淨和平等。
00:43
But is this a sensible way to understand the human condition in the 21st century? As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out, "Nothing is more responsible for the good old days than a bad memory."
但這是理解 21 世紀人類生存狀況的 合理方式嗎？就如富蘭克林 · 皮爾斯 · 亞當斯指出的那樣：「懷念往昔美好時光的人的記憶 一定糟透了。」
00:55
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
00:58
You can always fool yourself into seeing a decline if you compare bleeding headlines of the present with rose-tinted images of the past. What does the trajectory of the world look like when we measure well-being over time using a constant yardstick?
如果你拿現在的新聞頭條 跟過去玫瑰色的圖片相對比， 你就總會以為自己 正面臨著世風日下的局面。 當我們用恆定的尺度 來衡量幸福感時， 世界的變化軌跡會是什麼樣呢？
01:14
Let's compare the most recent data on the present with the same measures 30 years ago. Last year, Americans killed each other at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand, had seven percent of their citizens in poverty and emitted 21 million tons of particulate matter and four million tons of sulfur dioxide. But 30 years ago, the homicide rate was 8.5 per hundred thousand, poverty rate was 12 percent and we emitted 35 million tons of particulate matter and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.
讓我們用同樣的方法 來比較最新的數據 和 30 年前的數據。去年，美國每 10 萬人中有 5.3 人死於兇殺， 7%的貧困人口， 排放了 2100 萬噸的微粒物質， 以及 400 萬噸的二氧化硫。而 30 年前，每 10 萬人中 有 8.5 人死於兇殺， 貧困率為 12 %， 我們排放了 3500 萬噸的微粒物質， 以及 2000 萬噸的二氧化硫。
01:47
What about the world as a whole? Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars, 60 autocracies, 10 percent of the world population in extreme poverty and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons. But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars, 85 autocracies, 37 percent of the world population in extreme poverty and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons. True, last year was a terrible year for terrorism in Western Europe, with 238 deaths, but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.
那麼世界整體情況如何？ 去年，全球共有 12 場戰爭， 60 個獨裁政權， 10% 的極端貧窮人口 以及超過 1 萬件核武器。而 30 年前，一共有 23 場戰爭， 85 個獨裁政權， 37 %的全球人口極度貧困 以及超過 6 萬件核武器。的確，去年是西歐恐怖主義 十分猖獗的一年， 共造成 238 人死亡， 但 1988 年更糟，有 440 人死亡。
02:24
What's going on? Was 1988 a particularly bad year? Or are these improvements a sign that the world, for all its struggles, gets better over time? Might we even invoke the admittedly old-fashioned notion of progress? To do so is to court a certain amount of derision, because I have found that intellectuals hate progress.
這是怎麼回事？ 1988 年是尤其糟糕的一年嗎？或者，這是世界進步的跡象， 在掙扎中，越變越好？我們是否可以援引 公認的過時了進步觀念？這樣做會招來一些嘲笑， 因為我發現知識分子憎恨進步。
02:49
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
02:51
(Applause)
（鼓掌）
02:54
And intellectuals who call themselves progressive really hate progress.
自稱進步的知識分子真的討厭進步。
02:57
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
02:59
Now, it's not that they hate the fruits of progress, mind you. Most academics and pundits would rather have their surgery with anesthesia than without it. It's the idea of progress that rankles the chattering class. If you believe that humans can improve their lot, I have been told, that means that you have a blind faith and a quasi-religious belief in the outmoded superstition and the false promise of the myth of the onward march of inexorable progress. You are a cheerleader for vulgar American can-doism, with the rah-rah spirit of boardroom ideology, Silicon Valley and the Chamber of Commerce. You are a practitioner of Whig history, a naive optimist, a Pollyanna and, of course, a Pangloss, alluding to the Voltaire character who declared, "All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds."
請注意，我並不是說 他們討厭進步的成果。 大多數學者和專家 做手術時還是會選擇用麻醉， 而非什麼都不用。 讓這些喋喋不休的人不滿的， 是進步的觀點。 如果你相信人類可以改善命運， 正如我被告知的那樣， 這意味著你有著盲目的信仰， 一種類似宗教的落後迷信， 相信對不可阻擋的進步神話的 虛假承諾。 你是粗俗的美國佬的啦啦隊長， 擁有董事會的意識形態，矽谷和商會的 拉拉隊精神。 你是輝格歷史的實踐者， 一位天真的樂觀主義者， 你就像是潘格勞斯， 伏爾泰小說裡的角色，曾宣稱： 「在理想的最美好的世界中， 一切都是為最美好的目的而設。」
03:54
Well, Professor Pangloss, as it happens, was a pessimist. A true optimist believes there can be much better worlds than the one we have today. But all of this is irrelevant, because the question of whether progress has taken place is not a matter of faith or having an optimistic temperament or seeing the glass as half full. It's a testable hypothesis. For all their differences, people largely agree on what goes into human well-being: life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace, freedom, safety, knowledge, leisure, happiness. All of these things can be measured. If they have improved over time, that, I submit, is progress.
好吧，潘格勞斯教授 碰巧是個悲觀主義者。 一個真正的樂觀主義者相信 存在著比我們今天擁有的 更好的世界。 但所有這些都無關緊要， 因為進步是否發生 與信念無關， 也不取決於是否擁有樂觀氣質， 或是看到了半杯水（而不是半個空杯子）。 而是一個可檢驗的假設。 儘管各有分歧， 在很大程度上人們會一致認為， 人類的幸福包括以下因素： 生命、健康、生計、繁榮、 和平、自由、安全、知識、 休閒、快樂。 這些東西都可以測量。 如果它們隨時間得到改善， 我認為就是進步。
04:35
Let's go to the data, beginning with the most precious thing of all, life. For most of human history, life expectancy at birth was around 30. Today, worldwide, it is more than 70, and in the developed parts of the world, more than 80. 250 years ago, in the richest countries of the world, a third of the children did not live to see their fifth birthday, before the risk was brought down a hundredfold. Today, that fate befalls less than six percent of children in the poorest countries of the world. Famine is one of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. It could bring devastation to any part of the world. Today, famine has been banished to the most remote and war-ravaged regions. 200 years ago, 90 percent of the world's population subsisted in extreme poverty. Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do. For most of human history, the powerful states and empires were pretty much always at war with each other, and peace was a mere interlude between wars. Today, they are never at war with each other. The last great power war pitted the United States against China 65 years ago. More recently, wars of all kinds have become fewer and less deadly. The annual rate of war has fallen from about 22 per hundred thousand per year in the early '50s to 1.2 today. Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey and is threatened by the rise of authoritarian populism in Eastern Europe and the United States. Yet the world has never been more democratic than it has been in the past decade, with two-thirds of the world's people living in democracies. Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy and the code of vendetta are replaced by the rule of law. It happened when feudal Europe was brought under the control of centralized kingdoms, so that today a Western European has 1/35th the chance of being murdered compared to his medieval ancestors. It happened again in colonial New England, in the American Wild West when the sheriffs moved to town, and in Mexico.
讓我們看看數據。 從最珍貴的東西開始，生命。 在人類歷史長河的大部分時期中， 預期壽命為 30 歲上下。今天，全球平均壽命超過了70歲， 在發達國家， 則超過80歲。250 年前，在全球最富有的國家， 在風險被降低一百倍之前， 1/3 的兒童活不到五歲。今天，嬰兒死亡率在全球最貧窮的國家 也已經降低到 6 %以下。饑荒是世界末日的四騎士之一。它可以給世界上任何地方帶來毀滅。今天，饑荒已經被驅逐至 最偏遠和飽受戰爭蹂躪的地區。200 年前，90 %的世界人口 處於極端貧困。今天只有不到 10 %的人如此。在人類大部分的歷史中， 強大的國家和帝國 總是彼此交戰， 而和平只是戰爭之間的插曲。今天，他們不再彼此開戰。上一場大國之間的戰爭 發生在 65 年前的中國和美國。最近，各種各樣的戰爭發生得 越來越少，傷亡人數也有所下降。每年的戰爭死亡率 從 50 年代的 10 萬分之 22 下降至今天的 10 萬分之 1.2。民主在委內瑞拉，俄羅斯，土耳其 遭受了明顯的挫折， 並在東歐和美國受到了 來自獨裁民粹主義崛起的威脅。但是相比過去的時代， 世界從來沒有如此民主， 全球 2/3 的人口生活在民主國家。每當無政府狀態和仇殺行為 被法治取代時， 兇殺犯罪率就會下降。這發生在封建的歐洲 被中央王國控制時， 所以今天西歐人 被謀殺的機率是 他們中世紀祖先的 1/35。這也發生在新英格蘭的殖民地， 治安官進駐後的美國西部小鎮， 以及墨西哥等地。我們的確在各個方面 都變得更安全了。
06:46
Indeed, we've become safer in just about every way. Over the last century, we've become 96 percent less likely to be killed in a car crash, 88 percent less likely to be mowed down on the sidewalk, 99 percent less likely to die in a plane crash, 95 percent less likely to be killed on the job, 89 percent less likely to be killed by an act of God, such as a drought, flood, wildfire, storm, volcano, landslide, earthquake or meteor strike, presumably not because God has become less angry with us but because of improvements in the resilience of our infrastructure. And what about the quintessential act of God, the projectile hurled by Zeus himself? Yes, we are 97 percent less likely to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
上個世紀以來， 我們死於交通事故的概率 降低了 96 %。在人行道上被撞倒的概率 降低了88 %。飛機事故死亡率下降了 99 %。因公殉職的概率也降低了 95 %。死於大自然因素的 概率也降低了 89 %， 比如乾旱，洪水，野火，風暴，火山， 山崩、地震或流星撞擊。應該不是因為 上帝對我們不再那麼生氣了， 而是因為我們的基礎設施的 應變能力提高了。那麼，典型的天災， 宙斯自己投擲的炮彈呢？沒錯，我們被閃電擊中的 概率降低了 97 %。
07:40
Before the 17th century, no more than 15 percent of Europeans could read or write. Europe and the United States achieved universal literacy by the middle of the 20th century, and the rest of the world is catching up. Today, more than 90 percent of the world's population under the age of 25 can read and write. In the 19th century, Westerners worked more than 60 hours per week. Today, they work fewer than 40. Thanks to the universal penetration of running water and electricity in the developed world and the widespread adoption of washing machines, vacuum cleaners, refrigerators, dishwashers, stoves and microwaves, the amount of our lives that we forfeit to housework has fallen from 60 hours a week to fewer than 15 hours a week.
17 世紀以前， 不到 15 %的歐洲人能讀會寫。歐洲和美國在 20 世紀中葉 就消滅了文盲， 世界其他地方也在陸續跟上。今天，全球年齡在 25 歲以下的人中， 超過 90 %的人口能讀會寫。在 19 世紀，西方人每周工作時間 遠遠超過 60 個小時。今天，這個數字已經低於 40 小時。得益於發達國家 自來水和電的普及， 以及洗衣機，真空吸塵器， 冰箱、洗碗機、爐子和 微波爐的廣泛使用， 我們花費在家務上的時間 從一周 60 個小時 下降至每周不到 15 小時。
08:29
Do all of these gains in health, wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure make us any happier? The answer is yes. In 86 percent of the world's countries, happiness has increased in recent decades.
在健康、財富、安全、知識 和休閒方面的這些進步 讓我們更加幸福了嗎？ 答案是肯定的。 全球 86 %的國家中， 幸福指數在最近幾十年來都在增長。
08:42
Well, I hope to have convinced you that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism, but is a fact of human history, indeed the greatest fact in human history. And how has this fact been covered in the news?
好了，我希望我已經說服你們 進步無關信念或樂觀， 而是人類歷史的事實， 確實是人類歷史上最偉大的事實。 而這些事實是如何 被新聞媒體報導的呢？
08:55
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
08:59
A tabulation of positive and negative emotion words in news stories has shown that during the decades in which humanity has gotten healthier, wealthier, wiser, safer and happier, the "New York Times" has become increasingly morose and the world's broadcasts too have gotten steadily glummer.
新聞故事中積極和消極的情緒詞彙表 已證明，在過去幾十年裡 人類變得更健康， 更富有，更聰明，更安全，更快樂。 《紐約時報》的措辭卻變得越來越陰鬱， 全球的廣播節目的腔調 也變得越來越陰沉。
09:19
Why don't people appreciate progress? Part of the answer comes from our cognitive psychology. We estimate risk using a mental shortcut called the "availability heuristic." The easier it is to recall something from memory, the more probable we judge it to be. The other part of the answer comes from the nature of journalism, captured in this satirical headline from "The Onion," "CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide What Viewers Should Panic About For Rest of Day."
為什麼人們不感激這些進步？ 部分答案來自於我們的認知心理學。 我們用一個名為「可得性啟發」的 心理捷徑來估計危險。一件越容易被回憶起來的事， 我們就越可能認為它就是那樣。另外一部分答案來自於新聞業的本質， 這個諷刺性的頭條取自「洋蔥新聞」， 「美國有線電視新聞網 CNN 開早會決定 觀眾在這一天應當對什麼感到恐慌。」
09:47
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
09:48
(Applause)
（掌聲）
09:53
News is about stuff that happens, not stuff that doesn't happen. You never see a journalist who says, "I'm reporting live from a country that has been at peace for 40 years," or a city that has not been attacked by terrorists. Also, bad things can happen quickly, but good things aren't built in a day. The papers could have run the headline, "137,000 people escaped from extreme poverty yesterday" every day for the last 25 years. That's one and a quarter billion people leaving poverty behind, but you never read about it. Also, the news capitalizes on our morbid interest in what can go wrong, captured in the programming policy, "If it bleeds, it leads." Well, if you combine our cognitive biases with the nature of news, you can see why the world has been coming to an end for a very long time indeed.
新聞是報導那些正在發生的事， 而不是沒有發生的事。 你從沒見過一個記者說， 「我正在一個40年來 局勢都很穩定的國家直播」， 或者在一個從來沒有被 恐怖分子襲擊的城市直播。另外，壞事可能會瞬間發生， 但是好事卻不是一天能成的。新聞媒體可以在 過去25年中。每天都使用 「昨天有 13 萬 7 千人脫離了極端貧困」 這個標題。也就是說，總共有 12.5 億人脫離了貧困， 但是你從來沒有看到過這一條新聞。而且，新聞報導還會利用我們對 哪裡會出現問題的病態興趣， 其規劃政策是「越血腥越吸睛」。如果將我們的認知偏差和 新聞的本質相結合， 你就可以了解為什麼這個世界 的確是在很久以前 就開始走向末日了。
10:47
Let me address some questions about progress that no doubt have occurred to many of you. First, isn't it good to be pessimistic to safeguard against complacency, to rake the muck, to speak truth to power? Well, not exactly. It's good to be accurate. Of course we should be aware of suffering and danger wherever they occur, but we should also be aware of how they can be reduced, because there are dangers to indiscriminate pessimism. One of them is fatalism. If all our efforts at improving the world have been in vain, why throw good money after bad? The poor will always be with you. And since the world will end soon -- if climate change doesn't kill us all, then runaway artificial intelligence will -- a natural response is to enjoy life while we can, eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die.
讓我提出幾個關於進步的問題， 豪無疑問這些進步 在你們很多人身上都發生過。 首先，成為一個悲觀主義者， 可以防範自滿、清清除糟粕， 向當權者說實話，這有什麼不好嗎？ 其實，這樣未必好。 能做到精確是很好的。 當然我們都應當知道 痛苦和危險發生的地方， 但是我們也應當知道 如何去減少它們。 因為不分青紅皂白的 悲觀主義是危險的。 其中一個例子就是宿命論。 如果我們所有 推動這個世界進步的努力 都是徒勞的， 為什麼我們還要去做無用功？ 反正貧窮無論如何都會一直跟隨你。 並且既然這個世界 很快就要完蛋了—— 如果氣候變化沒有將我們全都幹掉， 那麼失控的人工智慧也會—— 自然的反應就是，樂在當下吧， 吃喝玩樂，同時坐以待斃。
11:39
The other danger of thoughtless pessimism is radicalism. If our institutions are all failing and beyond hope for reform, a natural response is to seek to smash the machine, drain the swamp, burn the empire to the ground, on the hope that whatever rises out of the ashes is bound to be better than what we have now.
輕率的悲觀主義的 另一個危險是激進主義。 如果我們的機構都失敗了， 改革的希望也破滅了， 自然的反應就是砸爛機器， 抽乾沼澤， 把帝國燒成灰燼， 抱著灰燼中無論長出什麼 都要好於當下的幻想。
12:00
Well, if there is such a thing as progress, what causes it? Progress is not some mystical force or dialectic lifting us ever higher. It's not a mysterious arc of history bending toward justice. It's the result of human efforts governed by an idea, an idea that we associate with the 18th century Enlightenment, namely that if we apply reason and science that enhance human well-being, we can gradually succeed. Is progress inevitable? Of course not. Progress does not mean that everything becomes better for everyone everywhere all the time. That would be a miracle, and progress is not a miracle but problem-solving. Problems are inevitable and solutions create new problems which have to be solved in their turn. The unsolved problems facing the world today are gargantuan, including the risks of climate change and nuclear war, but we must see them as problems to be solved, not apocalypses in waiting, and aggressively pursue solutions like Deep Decarbonization for climate change and Global Zero for nuclear war.
那麼，如果真的有進步這個東西， 是什麼導致了進步呢？ 進步並不是某種神秘力量或辯證法， 可以將我們推向更高的境界。 它不是一條屈服於正義的神秘弧線。 進步是人類在一種思想 指引下努力的結果。 這個思想與 18 世紀的啟蒙運動有關， 那就是，如果我們運用理性和科學 來提高人類的幸福水平， 我們就可以逐漸取得成功。進步是不可避免的嗎? 當然不是。進步並不意味著所有人在任何地方， 任何時候都能變得更好。那就算得上是一個奇蹟， 但進步並不是奇蹟， 而是解決問題的過程。問題不可避免， 解決問題的方案還會帶來新的問題， 這些問題在未來必須解決。當今世界面臨的 未解決的問題是巨大的， 包括氣候變化 和核武戰爭的風險。我們必須將其視為需要解決的問題， 不能坐以待斃， 而要積極尋求解決之道， 比如以深脫碳技術對應氣候變化， 和全球零核戰。
13:12
Finally, does the Enlightenment go against human nature? This is an acute question for me, because I'm a prominent advocate of the existence of human nature, with all its shortcomings and perversities. In my book "The Blank Slate," I argued that the human prospect is more tragic than utopian and that we are not stardust, we are not golden and there's no way we are getting back to the garden.
最後一點，啟蒙運動 是否違背了人類的本性？ 這對我來說是個尖銳的問題， 因為我是人類本性天然存在 這一觀點的主要倡導者， 儘管其中存在許多的缺點和不足。 在我的書《白板》中， 我認為人類的前景比烏託邦更悲慘， 我們不是星塵，我們不是金色的， 我們不可能回到伊甸園。
13:36
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
13:38
But my worldview has lightened up in the 15 years since "The Blank Slate" was published. My acquaintance with the statistics of human progress, starting with violence but now encompassing every other aspect of our well-being, has fortified my belief that in understanding our tribulations and woes, human nature is the problem, but human nature, channeled by Enlightenment norms and institutions, is also the solution.
但是我的世界觀 隨著 15 年前《白板》的出版改變了。我對人類進步的統計數據的接觸—— 從暴力開始， 到現在涵蓋了我們幸福的每一個方面—— 強化了我的信念， 即我們的困難和困境， 人性是主要的問題， 但是人性，在啟蒙運動的 規範和制度引導下， 也可以是解決方案。
14:05
Admittedly, it's not easy to replicate my own data-driven epiphany with humanity at large. Some intellectuals have responded with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now," saying first how dare he claim that intellectuals hate progress, and second, how dare he claim that there has been progress.
不可否認，讓人類普遍複製 我通過數據得到的洞察 並不容易。 有些學者憤怒地反擊 我的書《當下的啟蒙》說： 首先，他怎麼敢宣稱 知識分子痛恨進步， 第二，他怎麼敢宣稱 世界已經取得了進步。
14:25
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
14:28
With others, the idea of progress just leaves them cold. Saving the lives of billions, eradicating disease, feeding the hungry, teaching kids to read? Boring.
和其他人一樣， 進步的概念對他們毫無意義。 拯救數十億人的生命， 消滅疾病，養活饑民， 教孩子識字？ 太無聊了。
14:41
At the same time, the most common response I have received from readers is gratitude, gratitude for changing their view of the world from a numb and helpless fatalism to something more constructive, even heroic.
同時，我得到的最常見的 反饋是讀者的感謝， 為改變了他們對世界的看法而感激， 從麻木和無助的宿命論 變得更具建設性， 甚至更英勇。
14:54
I believe that the ideals of the Enlightenment can be cast a stirring narrative, and I hope that people with greater artistic flare and rhetorical power than I can tell it better and spread it further. It goes something like this.
我相信啟蒙運動的理想 可以是一種激動人心的敘述。 我希望那些比我擁有 更豐富的藝術靈感 和修辭力量的人， 能夠把這個故事講述得更好， 並傳播得更遠。 聽起來就像這樣：
15:08
We are born into a pitiless universe, facing steep odds against life-enabling order and in constant jeopardy of falling apart. We were shaped by a process that is ruthlessly competitive. We are made from crooked timber, vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness and at times astounding stupidity.
我們生於無情的宇宙， 面對著維持生命秩序的巨大挑戰， 並不斷陷入分裂的危險之中。 我們成長於殘酷的競爭過程。 我們是彎木頭做的， 容易幻想，以自我為中心， 有時愚蠢到令人髮指。
15:30
Yet human nature has also been blessed with resources that open a space for a kind of redemption. We are endowed with the power to combine ideas recursively, to have thoughts about our thoughts. We have an instinct for language, allowing us to share the fruits of our ingenuity and experience. We are deepened with the capacity for sympathy, for pity, imagination, compassion, commiseration. These endowments have found ways to magnify their own power. The scope of language has been augmented by the written, printed and electronic word. Our circle of sympathy has been expanded by history, journalism and the narrative arts. And our puny rational faculties have been multiplied by the norms and institutions of reason, intellectual curiosity, open debate, skepticism of authority and dogma and the burden of proof to verify ideas by confronting them against reality.
然而，人類本性也被賦予了資源， 為一種救贖打開了空間。 我們被賦予了以遞歸的方式 組合思想的力量， 能夠對個人的想法進行自省。 我們有語言的本能， 讓我們可以分享智慧和經驗成果。 我們因擁有憐憫、想像、 慈悲、同理心的能力而深化。 這些天賜的能力也找到了 擴大其作用的方法。 語言的覆蓋範圍因手寫， 印刷和電子文字而增加。 我們的同情圈 因歷史，新聞和敘事藝術而擴大。 通過理性的規範和制度， 好奇心，公開辯論， 對權威和教條的懷疑， 以及與現實對抗來驗證想法的舉證責任， 我們微小的理性思考能力 就會成倍增加。
16:28
As the spiral of recursive improvement gathers momentum, we eke out victories against the forces that grind us down, not least the darker parts of our own nature. We penetrate the mysteries of the cosmos, including life and mind. We live longer, suffer less, learn more, get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures and rich experiences. Fewer of us are killed, assaulted, enslaved, exploited or oppressed by the others. From a few oases, the territories with peace and prosperity are growing and could someday encompass the globe. Much suffering remains and tremendous peril, but ideas on how to reduce them have been voiced, and an infinite number of others are yet to be conceived.
隨著遞歸改進的螺旋上升的 勢頭不斷增強， 我們戰勝了讓我們沮喪的力量， 尤其是本性中較黑暗的部分。 我們深入宇宙的奧秘， 包括生命和心靈。 我們活得更久，遭遇更少，學得更多， 變得更聰明，享受更多的小樂趣 以及更豐富的體驗。 更少的人被殺害，被襲擊， 被奴役，被剝削， 或被人壓迫。 從最初的幾塊綠洲， 和平與繁榮的領土正在增長， 終有一天，世界將會被其包圍。 苦難依舊， 危險尚存， 但減少它們的方法已經被提出， 還有無數其他的方法仍在孕育中。
17:18
We will never have a perfect world, and it would be dangerous to seek one. But there's no limit to the betterments we can attain if we continue to apply knowledge to enhance human flourishing. This heroic story is not just another myth. Myths are fictions, but this one is true, true to the best of our knowledge, which is the only truth we can have. As we learn more, we can show which parts of the story continue to be true and which ones false, as any of them might be and any could become.
我們永遠不會擁有完美的世界， 尋找完美世界的過程危機重重。 如果我們繼續將知識用於人類福祉， 就會源源不斷的獲得更美好的東西。 這個英雄故事不是另一個神話。 神話是虛構的，但這是真的。 這是我們所知道的最好的真理， 也是我們唯一能擁有的真理。 當我們懂得更多， 我們就可以展示故事的哪些部分 繼續為真，哪些為假， 而這一結果是隨機的。
17:50
And this story belongs not to any tribe but to all of humanity, to any sentient creature with the power of reason and the urge to persist in its being, for it requires only the convictions that life is better than death, health is better than sickness, abundance is better than want, freedom is better than coercion, happiness is better than suffering and knowledge is better than ignorance and superstition.
這個故事不屬於任何一個部落， 而屬於全人類， 屬於任何擁有離職和情感， 以及維繫自己生命的欲望的生物。 因為它只需要相信 活著好過死亡， 健康好過疾病， 富足好於渴求， 自由好於強迫， 幸福好於痛苦， 知識勝於無知和迷信。
18:19
Thank you.
謝謝。
18:20
(Applause)
（鼓掌）