For Ma Changjiang, Wang Juan and many of 300 million other migrant workers in China, there will be no once-a-year trip home to celebrate the 2021 Lunar New Year thanks to restrictions to limit a resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Ma, a plasterer working in southern China’s Guangdong province, scrubbed his 1,000-mile trip home to northern China’s Hebei province as this year’s holiday begins Feb. 12. He cited the rigorous quarantine and testing restrictions imposed by his village, which is about 1 kilometer from Nangong, one of the cities in Hebei with the highest level of risk in a recent outbreak.
「It is very sad that I can’t make my trip home as it is the only chance in a year,」 Ma said. 「But there is nothing (I) can do.」
Domestic worker Wang similarly won’t be going home from Beijing to visit her husband and children in Jiaozuo, Henan. Under local policy, travelers from Beijing need to quarantine for 21 days in designated hotels at their own cost.
「The holiday will be over after 21 days of quarantine,」 Wang said. 「What is the point for me to go back?」
有史以來第一次，全國人民收到了來自中央「就地過年」的通知。
中共中央辦公廳和國務院辦公廳1月25日公布的《關於做好人民群眾就地過年服務保障工作的通知》中明確要求：「疫情高風險地區群眾均應就地過年，把人員流動降到最低，防止因人員流動導致疫情傳播擴散。中風險地區群眾原則上就地過年，特殊情況需要出行的，需經屬地疫情防控機構批准。低風險地區倡導群眾就地過年，非必要不出行。機關、事業單位和國有企業人員要帶頭就地過年，引導外地農民工、尚未離校的師生就地過年。確需出行人員原則上不前往中高風險地區。」
This year’s holiday travel boom will be even smaller than last year’s as governments across the country ramp up virus control measures ahead of traditionally each year’s busiest travel. The Ministry of Transport estimated last week that there will be about 1.15 billion trips during this year’s holiday season, the fewest on record since the government began releasing the data in 2003.
A year ago as the pandemic emerged, Lunar New Year travel fell by half from the 3 billion journeys recorded in 2019. This year’s estimate is 20% lower than last year’s total, and the transport authority said the actual number of trips could be even fewer. Already, the number of trips taken by road, rail, airplane and boat are down about 50% from the comparable period last year, according to the transport authority.
交通運輸部1月20日預計，2021年全國春運期間發送旅客17億人次左右，日均4000萬人次。相比2019年，該數據已下降超四成，但比2020年增加了一成多。「就地過年」意在進一步收縮人員流動，防範春運期間疫情擴散的風險。
A year after the pandemic began, China now faces the challenge of preventing the virus from spreading more deeply into its vast rural areas, especially during the Lunar New Year holiday when hundreds of millions of people normally travel from big cities to their rural hometowns. Such fears sparked local authorities to resort to strict measures to stop returnees, spurring public criticism that some of them may be excessive.
Rampant spread of the virus globally means that the pandemic’s threat to China will persist until large-scale vaccinations worldwide effectively contain the virus’s spread, experts said. Before that, the country needs to develop more sophisticated and targeted virus responses that could prevent chaos and unnecessary costs. Different strategies should be designed to fit the needs of different regions, they said.
Globally, the novel coronavirus has sickened more than 100 million people and killed 2.2 million, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Fearing a resurgent pandemic will spread in rural areas, governments impose tough, new travel restrictions that some say are too muchThe State Council, China’s cabinet issued an unusual call to the public Jan. 25 for people to stay put and avoid nonessential trips during the Lunar New Year period. The government’s message reflects mounting concerns that the annual Spring Festival travel rush, known as Chunyun (春運), will brew increased risks for the spread of the coronavirus.
As winter fell, China encountered its worst resurgence in nearly 10 months as new clusters were reported in several provinces. Between Jan. 2 and 28, more than 2,600 new cases were confirmed in north China’s Hebei and northeast China’s Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces. In response to the surge of new infections, several cities reimposed lockdowns and conducted mass virus testing of millions.
自1月2日起，河北省及黑龍江省先後出現從農村開始的聚集性疫情，並波及多地。截至1月28日24時，河北省本輪疫情已累計報告新冠病毒感染者1107例，黑龍江省新冠病毒感染者總人數則已達到1111例，其疫情傳播鏈波及的吉林省也有超過400例新冠病毒感染者。
這是2020年新冠肺炎疫情首度「清零」後，全國各地從零星感染擴散成較大範圍的疫情中，規模最大的一波。而這波疫情恰恰發生在春節前不久，至1月28日中國春運期正式開啟，疫情雖然已明顯得到控制，但感染者仍在繼續增加。
Rural loopholes
In addition to its Jan. 25 notice calling on Chinese to 「celebrate in place,」 the State Council also said interprovincial travelers will have to present a negative Covid-19 test result from the preceding seven days, starting Jan. 28. The cabinet urged people to practice 14 days of home quarantine after arriving and not to attend large gatherings.
Some areas』 requirements are even stricter, requiring a negative result from the prior three days for those traveling from higher-risk areas. Although Beijing has ordered local authorities not to add excessive requirements and block necessary travel, many localities have scrambled to ramp up control, reflecting fears of infection risks from massive visitor flows during the holidays.
實際上，由於出現本土疫情的多個中高風險地區大面積「封城」，同時多個人口淨流入地區發布留人政策，今年春運期間人員流動已大幅減少。據交通運輸部統計，1月19日至25日，公路、鐵路、民航、水路等四類交通發送的旅客量在1803.7萬—1933.5萬人次之間波動，較2020年同期下降超五成。但低風險地區限制返鄉政策「層層加碼」仍然很多見，要麼喊話勿返鄉，要麼動輒核酸檢測，結果為陰性也要求隔離。
「Recent outbreaks in Hebei and the northeast sounded the alarm for us,」 said a county official in Henan, one of the largest sources of migrant workers from its vast rural regions.
The latest waves of resurgence in northern China spotlighted the fragility of rural areas in the face of the virus, the official said.
The official’s county found in a survey that 40,000 people planned to return during this year’s holidays, compared with about 100,000 last year, she said. The county is home to 200,000 migrant workers, according to the official.
她分析，現有的疫情和以前的認知有很大差異。她一直認為，武漢等城市地區傳播病毒，和人員居住集中、空氣流通不暢有一定關係，在農村不易發生；而通過進口海鮮冷鏈傳播的病毒，也因為農村生活水平低而基本絕緣。但河北和黑龍江的情況顛覆了他們的原有認知。
上述副縣長向財新記者介紹，他們從1月2日河北省暴發疫情後，就進行了返鄉人員排查上報，截至1月26日下午6點，統計到今年返鄉4萬多人。「在去年離過春節十幾天的這個時間，那時候武漢還沒有說疫情，我們的返鄉人數基本上有10萬人，就是一半以上都已經返鄉了。」前述副縣長向財新記者透露，其所在縣每年有近20萬人外出務工，目前的返鄉人數較2020年同期減少超過一半。
Recent outbreaks in Hebei and Heilongjiang started in rural areas and spread quickly. Contact tracing later found that the wide spread was partly due to late discovery of earliest cases.
Compared with urban areas that have been fully equipped and on high alert for the pandemic, many rural areas haven't encountered large outbreaks and were unprepared, said Wang Chenguang, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
「（有的地方）以前沒有出現過新冠疫情，或者說很少，長期以來它們所謂的常態化防控是有點流於形式的。」清華大學法學院教授王晨光向財新記者指出，類似於吉林省通化市出現的「封城」「封戶」後「斷糧斷藥」的現象，更不只是簡單的防控是否過度的問題，而是在常態化防控的各個方面，其政府的聯防聯控機制沒有真正完全建立起來。
On Jan. 20, the State Council issued a notice ordering local authorities to view epidemic prevention and management in rural areas as 「a matter of the utmost importance」 and keep track of people returning to hometowns ahead of the holidays.
「Disease control capacity in rural areas is weak, and controlling the epidemic is difficult, especially as the number of people returning home during the Lunar New Year rush markedly increases … and further increases the risk of transmission,」 the National Health Commission (NHC) wrote in an article outlining virus control measures for rural returnees.
1月27日，國務院聯防聯控機制舉行的新聞發布會指出，從近期的聚集性疫情看，農村地區存在防控意識不強、防控物資不足、技術條件比較差的問題，部分地方還發生了由於聚集性活動造成的超級傳播現象。
The biggest challenge in rural disease control is to enhance the capacity of local health institutions so that they can detect the virus quickly, said Lu Hongzhou, head of the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center.
Big cities remain the focus of virus control, but policy documents indicated that more attention is being paid to rural areas, said Jiang Qingwu, a public health expert at Fudan University in Shanghai.
「城市不平安，農村不太平。」復旦大學公共衛生學院教授姜慶五指出，當前疫情防控的重點仍在城市，但國家衛健委已發布農村疫情防控相關文件，說明也看到農村存在薄弱環節。
Balancing act
Following months of nationwide lockdown measures, China largely put domestic outbreaks under control since April and gradually reopened to normal activity levels. Since then, authorities have sought to set up more normalized approaches for virus control to reduce the impacts on social and economic activities.
Big cities including Shanghai and Beijing have developed more-targeted strategies involving limited restrictive measures and rapid virus screening to successfully contain sporadic outbreaks.
In response to the surge of new infections, several cities reimposed lockdowns and conducted mass virus testing of millions.However, in the face of the recent resurgence sweeping North China and pressure from the holiday travel rush, some local authorities again turned to drastic measures. For instance, in Tonghua, Jilin province, an abrupt lockdown and lack of preparation left many residents without enough food and necessities when they were forced to stay home, exposing an emergency response failure.
Meanwhile, rounds of virus tests involving millions were ordered in many places, raising questions whether the mass testing was necessary. In Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, three rounds of nucleic acid tests were conducted on all 10 million residents over the past few weeks, while people in some districts with high risk were tested as many as five times.
Beijing also tested millions of people after several cases were reported in its southern district of Daxing.
Under the latest holiday travel rules issued by the NHC, a migrant worker who wants to return to rural Henan from Shanghai would need to take at least four nucleic acid tests during a round trip, according to Soochow Securities Co.
原本用於重點人群主動篩查和精準定位患者的核酸檢測，逐漸被擴大化使用。除多地反覆操作全員核酸檢測外，原本低風險地區人員流動本無須進行核酸檢測的，春節前夕門檻也水漲船高。無論春節要去哪裡，核酸檢測證明都成為必備的流動「健康」憑證。
Some experts said that although rapid virus testing is crucial for tracing infections, it should be conducted in consideration of costs, and the current expansive use could be excessive. In many cities, recent tests covering millions of people often detected only a few infections.
「I feel the current screening is excessive,」 said a public health expert in Beijing. 「We』ve done tests for millions in many places and found nothing at the end. … It is unnecessary to do it in some places as community spread has been effectively controlled.」
Aggressive measures by local authorities reflect concerns over capacity to control the virus, especially in rural areas, analysts said. Officials are also under pressure because they would be held accountable for any failure to contain an outbreak. Dozens of officials have been punished in Hebei and Heilongjiang for the recent resurgences.
「（疫情）篩查方面，我覺得做得過嚴了。」北京一名公衛教授向財新記者指出，中國當前的疫情源頭仍以輸入性病例為主，因此應在輸入方面嚴格把關，「我們很多地方的篩查，動輒篩查幾百萬人，最後甚至一個陽性都沒發現，我覺得我們在社區流行方面基本上是有效控制了⋯⋯其實有些地方的做法，我覺得可以不做。」
Compared with most countries』 strategies for slowing the virus’s spread, China has stuck to a much more aggressive goal of eliminating domestic cases. Under this principle, localities across China will remain on high alert to eliminate new outbreaks probably until next year, one local official said.
But Shanghai’s Lu is more optimistic. As the weather gets warmer and inoculations expand globally, the pandemic will gradually come under control worldwide and people will 「be able to travel home for the next Spring Festival,」 he said.
目前，中國的「圍堵」和「壓制」與境外的「緩疫」策略之間的張力仍難緩解，最關鍵的變量是境外疫情能否明顯遏制。
盧洪洲對未來疫情走勢持樂觀態度。他認為，今年春節過完，到春暖花開時疫情形勢就會好轉，全球範圍內疫情也有望得到控制。此外，全球多款新冠病毒疫苗已經研製成功並開始普遍接種，相信疫苗廣泛接種後，疫情就可以得到很好的控制，「明年春節一定可以回家」。
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