經濟學人精讀27 | 疫苗究竟能起多大作用?

2021-03-02 燃燃要燃了


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①Even miracles have their limits. ②Vaccines against the coronavirus have arrived sooner and worked better than many people dared hope. ③Without them, the pandemic threatened to take more than 150m lives. ④And yet, while the world rolls up a sleeve, it has become clear that expecting vaccines to see off covid-19 is mistaken. ⑤Instead the disease will circulate for years, and seems likely to become endemic. ⑥When covid-19 first struck, governments were caught by surprise. ⑦Now they need to think ahead.


①即使奇蹟也有其局限性。②針對冠狀病毒的疫苗比許多人希望的來得更快,效果也更好。③如果沒有疫苗,疫情有可能奪走超過1.5億人的生命。④然而,當全世界挽起袖子加油幹的時候,寄希望於疫苗消滅新冠病毒的想法顯然是錯誤的。⑤相反,這種疾病將會傳播多年,而且似乎難以擺脫。⑥當新冠疫情初次爆發時,各國政府措手不及,⑦而現在他們需要提早做出打算。


「重點知識點」

threaten to do有可能做某事(be likely to do sth)·[經濟學人精讀3]The Chinese giant denounced a 「pernicious」 decision that 「threatens to undermine the entire industry worldwide」. 華為譴責了這一有可能破壞全球晶片行業的惡性行為。endemic地方性的;(某地或某集體中)特有的,流行的,難擺脫的(regularly found in a particular place or among a particular group of people and difficult to get rid of)[高級代低級]endemic表示普遍的,可以代替common·Corruptionis endemic in the system.腐敗在這種制度下普遍存在。·the endemic problem of racism普遍存在的種族主義問題endemic, epidemic, pandemic, outbreak的辨析

·endemic主要當作形容詞使用(當作名詞使用時,這個單詞是 endemic disease 的簡化形式)。當作形容詞使用時,endemic表示「特定時間、地點或群體所特有的」。因此,endemicdisease 指影響範圍相當有限的疾病。此外,endemic disease 並不包括「短暫流行」的意思,所以應該將其解釋為長期或永久性的現象

·epidemic指短暫爆發的疾病,患者人數突然顯著增加、疾病迅速擴散,之後又突然銷聲匿跡。所謂的 epidemic,並不局限於特定群體或地區,也不限定為長期性質。

·pandemic的意思與 epidemic 非常相近,唯一的差別在於兩者的規模。通常,pandemic 指影響範圍達到全國或全球規模的傳染病爆發。

·outbreak是指地方性病例數目的增長超過預期。它也可以是一個新區域內的單一病例。如果不迅速控制,疫情就可能演變成epidemic。

catch突然遭受,意外的發生(to happen unexpectedly and put sb in a difficult situation)·His arrival caught me by surprise.他的到來讓我感到意外。·She got caught in a thunderstorm.她遇上了雷雨。[經濟學人精讀5] catch / take sb off-guard使某人措手不及,讓某人猝不及防(to surprise someone by happening when they are not expecting something or prepared for it) ·The raging pandemic of Covid-19 caught some European countries without experience in epidemic prevention off guard, for example, Italy, Spain and France etc.

就catch sb/sth off guard來看The Texas Tribune德州論壇上的一句話,關於德州最近因天氣引發大規模斷電· ERCOT officials have repeatedly said that the winter storm that swept the state caught power generators off guard, and that it previously appeared there was more than enough supply to meet demand. But the storm far exceeded what ERCOT projected in the fall to prepare for winter. ERCOT官員一再表示,席捲該州的冬季風暴讓發電機措手不及,而此前似乎有足夠的供應來滿足需求。但是這場風暴遠遠超過了ERCOT在秋天為冬天做準備的預測。

再來看一句The Washington Post華盛頓郵報上的一句話·And across Louisiana and Mississippi, nearly a quarter-million homes were without power, with officials conceding that in a region better known for hurricanes and tornadoes, the winter cold had caught them off-guard. 在路易斯安那州和密西西比州,近25萬戶家庭斷電,官員們承認,在這個以颶風和龍捲風著稱的地區,冬季的寒冷讓他們措手不及


①To call vaccination a miracle is no exaggeration. ②A little more than a yearafter the virus was first recognised, medics have already administered 148m doses. ③In Israel, the world’s champion inoculator, hospital admissions among those aged below 60, who have not received a jab, are higher than ever. ④By contrast, among the largely inoculated over-60s they are already nearly 40% below their mid-January peak and they will fall further. ⑤Although vaccines fail to prevent all mild and asymptomatic cases of covid-19, they mostly seem to spare patients from death and the severest infections that require hospital admission, which is what really matters. ⑥Early evidence suggests that some vaccines stop the virus spreading, too. ⑦This would greatly slow the pandemic and thus make it easier to alleviate lockdowns without causing a surge ofcases that overwhelms intensive-care units. ⑧Those findings, and many more, will harden up over the next few months as more data emerge (see Briefing). 

①將疫苗稱為奇蹟並不誇張。②在首次發現新冠病毒一年多後,醫護人員已經注射了1.48億劑疫苗。③在世界上接種率最高的以色列,未注射疫苗的60歲以下的住院人數比以往任何時候都要高。④相比之下,在60歲以上接種疫苗的人群中,感染率已經比1月中旬的峰值低了近40%,而且還會進一步下降。⑤儘管疫苗不能預防所有的新冠輕症及無症狀病例,但它們似乎大多能使患者免於死亡和需要住院的最嚴重的感染,這才是真正重要的。⑥早期證據表明,某些疫苗也能阻止病毒傳播。⑦這將大大減緩疫情的傳播,從而更容易緩解封鎖,而不會造成重症監護病房人滿為患,無法容納激增病例的問題。⑧隨著更多數據的出現,目前以及更多的發現將在未來幾個月進一步得到證實。


「重點知識點」


administer 給予,施用(藥物等)(to give drugs, medicine, etc. to sb)·The dose was administered to the childintravenously.已給那孩子靜脈注射了一劑藥物。[熟詞僻義]

admission (機構、組織等的)準許加入,加入權,進入權(the act of accepting sb into an institution, organization, etc; the right to enter a place or to join an institution or organization)·Hospital admissions for asthma attack shave doubled.哮喘發作入院人次已成倍增加。[搭配]hospital admission入院,住院

①However, despite all this good news, the coronavirus is not finished with humanity yet. ②Covid19 will continue to circulate widely. ③There is a growing realisation that the virus is likely to find a permanent home in humans, as 「The Jab」, our new podcast, which launches on February 15th, will explore. ④That has profound implications for how governments need to respond. 

①然而,儘管有這些好消息,新冠病毒還沒有結束與人類的關係。②新冠病毒將繼續廣泛傳播。③越來越多的人意識到這種病毒可能會與人體永久共存,正如我們2月15日發布的新播客《注射》將探索的那樣。④這對政府思考如何應對疫情有著深遠的影響。


「重點知識點」


profound implications深遠的影響,其中的implication我們比較熟悉的表示「暗示」,在這裡表示「可能的影響(或作用、結果)」(a possible effect or result of an action or a decision)[用法]經常用作複數名詞,implications for/of sth。[熟詞僻義] [寫作推薦]表達A對B產生深遠影響,可能首先想到A brings important influence to B,我們可以改為A has profound implications of B。我們簡單練習一下:電子支付將對人們的生活方式產生深遠的影響E-payment will have profound implications for the way of living.


①One reason the coronavirus will persist is that making and distributing enough vaccine to protect the world’s 7.8bn people is a Herculean task (see Graphic detail). ②Even Britain, which is vaccinating the population at a faster rate than any other big country, will not finish with the over-50s until May. ③To add to the burden, the potency of a jab may fade, making boosters necessary. ④Outside the rich world, 85% of countries have yet to start their vaccination programmes. ⑤Until the billions of people who live in them have felt the prick of a needle, which may not be before 2023, they will remain fuel for the virus. 


①生產和分配足夠的疫苗來保護全球78億人口是一項艱巨的任務(見圖表細節),這是新冠病毒將持續存在的原因之一。②即使是比其他大國給民眾接種速度都快的英國,也要到5月份才能完成50歲以上人口的接種。③雪上加霜的是,疫苗的效力可能會減弱,因此有必要注射疫苗加強針。④在富裕國家之外,85%的國家尚未啟動疫苗接種計劃。⑤除非這些國家的數十億人接種,而這不太可能在2023年前實現,否則他們仍是病毒傳染的導火索。


「重點知識點」


add to the burden/add to the…(對象)burden of…(群體)加重負擔,雪上加霜·To concentrate so much on infections is to add to the health burden of the next generation in what are already the world's poorest, unhealthiest places.對世界上最貧窮、健康條件最差的地區來說,過多專注於傳染病只會增加下一代人的健康負擔。· [經濟學人精讀26] Adding fuel to the flames were claims that, throughout her very public life, Zheng has never appeared to be pregnant, and thus may have resorted to surrogacy to have children更火上澆油的是,有說法稱,在鄭爽的公眾生活中,她從未出現過懷孕的情況,因此可能是通過代孕生的孩子·add fuel to the flames/fires 火上澆油·His remarks simply added fuel to the fires/flames of her rage.他的話只是給她的憤怒火上澆油。


booster 加強劑量(an extra small amount of a drug that is given to increase the effect of one given earlier, for example to protect you from a disease for longer)·a booster injection or booster dose 注射疫苗加強針。[熟詞僻義]



①Another reason for covid-19’s persistence is that, even as vaccines are making sars-cov-2 less infectious and protecting people against death, new viral variants are undoing some of their good work. ②For one thing, successful variants are more infectious—anything from 25-40% in the case of b.1.1.7 which was first found in Britain. ③Infection is governed by the dizzying mathematics of exponential growth, so cases and deaths accumulate rapidly even if the variant is no more deadly. ④To get a given level of viral suppression, more onerous social distancing is needed.


①新冠病毒持續存在的另一個原因是,儘管疫苗降低了sars-cov-2的傳染性,保護人們免於死亡,但新的病毒變體正在破壞疫苗產生的良好功效。②一方面,成功變異的病毒更具傳染性,在英國首次發現的b.1.1.7變異病毒的病例中,其傳染性在25-40%之間。③感染受令人眼花繚亂的指數增長數學模型的控制,所以即使變異不再致命,病例和死亡數也會快速累積。④要達到一定程度的病毒抑制,就需要更為繁重的社交距離限制。


「重點知識點」


viral病毒的;病毒性的;病毒引起的(like or caused by a virus)·aviral infection病毒性感染·[經濟學人精讀12] Japan’s viral caseload is relatively small, with just 1,148 total deaths, roughly America’s daily average. 日本感染此病毒的病例數相對較少,死亡總數僅為1,148例,大致相當於美國日均的死亡水平。[拓展] a bacterial infection細菌性感染[複習]go viral風靡網絡,迅速走紅。·[Global Times] As pollution, climate change and pandemic illness become a routine aspect of our global reality, we may soon see facemask fashion go viral (excuse the pun) in Western countries as well. 隨著汙染、氣候變化和大流行性疾病成為我們全球現實生活的一個常規方面,我們可能很快就會看到戴口罩的時尚在西方國家迅速躥紅(原諒這個雙關語)。[拓展]run rife迅速蔓延(to spread quickly in an uncontrolled way)·No one knew exactly what he had done, but speculation ran rife沒有人確切知道他的所為,但是各種猜測層出不窮。




①In addition, new variants may withstand current vaccines. ②The ones found in Brazil and South Africa may also be defeating the immunity acquired from a previous covid-19 infection. ③The hope is that such caseswill be milder, because the immune system has been primed by the first encounter with the disease. ④Even if that is true, the virus will continue tocirculate, finding unprotected people and—because that is what viruses do— evolving new strains, some of which will be better at evading the defences that societies have mounted against them.


①此外,新的病毒變體可以抵抗現有的疫苗。②在巴西和南非發現的病毒變體可能也會破壞之前因新冠病毒感染所獲得的免疫力。③人們希望這樣的病例會比較溫和,因為免疫系統在第一次遇到這種疾病時就已經啟動了。④即使真的溫和,病毒也會繼續傳播,找到未受保護的人群,因為這就是病毒進化出新毒株的原因,其中一些病毒會更好地避開社會對它們建立的防禦機制。


「重點知識點」


prime事先指點;使(某人)做好準備(to prepare sb for asituation so that they know what to do, especially by giving them specialinformation)·They had been primed with good advice.他們事先得到了高人指點。·He had primed his friends togive the journalists as little information as possible.他已經知會他的朋友,儘量少向記者透露消息。[熟詞僻義]·[Global Times]But just as the Biden administration gets itself primed to fight the COVID-19 epidemic, political uncertainties took place in Myanmar, a country praised by the West as a model of democratic transformation. 但就在拜登政府為抗擊新冠疫情做好準備之際,緬甸這個被西方譽為民主轉型典範的國家政局動蕩。·[Global Times] China's industrial machines areprimed to meet soaring overseas demand, even for the upcoming Spring Festivalholidays, during which factories traditionally shut down for a couple of weeksand exports waned. 中國的工業機器已做好準備,即使是在即將到來的春節假期期間,也能夠滿足不斷飆升的海外需求。春節期間,工廠通常會停工幾周,出口也會下降。[高級代替低級]get ready to dosth準備好做某事可以用get oneself primed to do sth或者be primed to dosth來代替


mount準備;安排;組織開展(to organize andbegin sth)·to mount a protest/campaign/an exhibition發起抗議/運動;舉辦展覽。[同義表達]kick off, launch, organize, arrange。[原文]mount thedefences against them[熟詞僻義]

①And the third reason sars-cov-2 will persist is that lots of people will choose to remain a target by refusing vaccination.②A total of 10m Britons are vulnerable to the disease, because of their age or underlying conditions. ③Modelling suggests that if just 10% of them declined to be vaccinated and if social distancing were abandoned while the virus was still liable to circulate at high levels, then a tremendous spike in infections and deaths would result.

①Sars-cov-2病毒繼續存在的第三個原因是,許多人會選擇拒絕接種疫苗。②由於年齡和潛在的疾病,總共有1000萬英國人容易感染這種疾病。③模型顯示,如果只有10%的人拒絕接種疫苗且如果在病毒仍有可能在高水平傳播時放棄保持社交距離,那麼感染和死亡人數將會大幅上升。

「重點知識點」


be vulnerable to ·[經濟學人精讀1] Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, a research firm, calculates that more than 30m American jobs are highly vulnerable to closures associated with covid-19 研究公司Moody’s Analytics的馬克贊迪估計超過3000萬個美國工作崗位極有可能因冠狀病毒病而關閉。vulnerable(身體上或感情上)脆弱的易受…傷害的,易受…影響的(weak and easily hurt physically or emotionally)[同義表達]be susceptible to sth

liable[adj]1.可能(做某事)(likely to do sth)·We're all liable to makemistakes when we're tired.人在疲勞時都可能出差錯。[高級代低級]be liable to dosth=be likely to do sth.[同義表達]stand to do sth,threaten to do sth, be liable to do sth, be on course to do sth, be on track todo sth  2. 必須按法律做(某事);負有…責任。[用法]be liable forsth/to do sth·People who earn under a certain amount are not liable to pay tax.收入低於一定數額者不必納稅。[同義表達]held accountable for sth, be responsible for sth, be liable for sth


 

①In reality, the share of the overall population that remains unvaccinated is likely to be much higher than inthat thought-experiment (see Briefing). ②Vaccines are not yet licensed for children. ③Minority communities inmany countries, which are most vulnerable to infection, tend to have less trust in the government and the medical establishment. ④Even among some care workers, as many as half refuse vaccination, despite having seen the ravages of covid-19 at first hand. ⑤With the new variants, about 80% of the overall population needs to be immune for an infected person, on average, to pass on the disease to less than one contact, the threshold at which the epidemic subsides. ⑥That will be a tall order.

①實際上,仍然沒有接種疫苗的人口份額可能比那個思想實驗中的份額要高得多(見簡報)。②兒童疫苗尚未獲批。③在許多國家,最容易受到感染的少數群體往往對政府和醫療機構不太信任。④即使在一些護理工作者中,也有多達一半的人拒絕接種疫苗,儘管他們親眼目睹了疫情的破壞力。⑤對於新的變種,平均來看,大約80%的總人口需要對一個感染者有免疫力,才能將疾病傳染給少於一個接觸者,即為流行病消退的閾值。⑥這將是一個艱巨的任務。

「重點知識點」

at first hand 第一手;親自(by experiencing, seeing, etc. sth yourself rather than being told about it by sb else)·The President visited the area to see the devastation at first hand.總統親臨該地區視察受損情況。

a tall order 艱難的任務(something that is very difficult to do)·Getting the project done on schedule is going to be a tall order.·[Global Times] Convincing movie legend Anthony Hopkins to star in your first-ever film is a tall order for any director. 要說服電影界的傳奇人物安東尼·霍普金斯出演你的第一部電影,對任何導演來說都是一項艱巨的任務。

①For all these reasons, governments need to start planning for covid-19 as an endemic disease.②Today they treat it as an emergency that will pass. ③To see how those ways of thinking differ, consider New Zealand, which has sought to be covid-free by bolting its doors against  the world. ④In this way it has kept registered deaths down to just 25, but such a draconian policy makes no sense as a permanent defence: New Zealand is not North Korea. ⑤As vulnerable Kiwis are vaccinated, their country will come under growing pressure to open its borders—and hence to start to tolerate endemic covid-19 infections and deaths.

①出於所有以上原因,各國政府需要開始長期存在的新冠疫情進行規劃。②如今,他們將疫情視為一個會過去的緊急情況。③要了解各國思維方式是如何不同的,不妨看看紐西蘭,該國一直試圖通過將國門與世界隔離來擺脫新冠肺炎。④通過封鎖的方式,紐西蘭在冊登記的死亡人數控制在25人以下。但為了永久防禦病毒,這樣嚴苛的政策毫無意義:紐西蘭並不是朝鮮。⑤隨著易感的紐西蘭人接種疫苗,他們的國家將面臨越來越大的壓力—需要開放邊境,繼而開始接受新冠疫情感染及死亡的長期存在。

「重點知識點」


come under 1.被…控制;受…影響(to be controlled orinfluenced by sth)·All her students came under her spell.她所有的學生都被她迷住了。2. 成為(攻擊或批評的)目標(to be a person that others are attacking or criticizing)·come under fire/criticism遭受攻擊、批評等



①Across the world governments will have to workout when and how to switch from emergency measures to policies that are economically and socially sustainable indefinitely. ②The transition will be politically hard in places that have invested a lot in being covid-free.


①世界各國政府將不得不考慮何時以及如何從緊急措施轉向經濟和社會可持續發展的政策。②在那些為消除新冠肺炎而投入大量資金的國家,這種政治上地轉變將是困難的。




The new coronormal

①The adjustment to living with covid-19 begins with medical science. ②Work has already started on tweaking vaccines to confer protection against variants. ③That should go along with more surveillance of mutations that are spreading and accelerated regulatory approval for booster shots. ④Meanwhile treatments will be required to save more of those who contract the disease from death or serious illness. ⑤The best outcome would be for a combination of acquired immunity, regular booster jabs of tweaked vaccines and a menu of therapies to ensure that covid-19 need rarely be life-threatening. ⑥But that outcome is not guaranteed.


疫情新常態

①與新冠病毒共存的調整從醫學開始。②改良疫苗的工作已經展開,能夠讓疫苗對病毒變體同樣有防護效應。③與此同時,還應加強對正在傳播的突變病毒毒株的監測,並加快對加強疫苗的監管審批。④還需同時出臺治療方案,以挽救更多的感染者免於死亡或嚴重疾病。⑤最好的結果是能將獲得性免疫、定期加強接種改良疫苗及出臺一系列療法進行三位一體的整合,以確保新冠幾乎不會危及到生命。⑥然而,這種結果無法得到保證。

「重點知識點」

contract感染(疾病);得(病)(to get an illness)·to contract AIDS/a virus/a disease感染愛滋病/病毒/疾病[熟詞僻義]

①To the extent that medicine alone cannot prevent lethal outbreaks of covid-19, the burden will also fall on behaviour, just as it has in most of the pandemic. ②But rather than national lockdowns and months-long school closures, which come at a huge price, the responsibility should fall more heavily on individuals. ③Habits like mask-wearing may become part of everyday life.④Vaccine passports and restrictions in crowded spaces could become mandatory.⑤Vulnerable people will have to maintain great vigilance.⑥Those who refuse vaccination can expect health-education and encouragement, but limited protection.

①在某種程度上,單靠藥物是無法預防致命的新冠肺炎的。就像大多數的疫情一樣,疫情防護的重擔在於措施。②但是,這種責任應該更多地落在個人身上,而不是全國範圍內的封鎖及長達數月的停課,這些措施帶來了巨大的代價。③像戴口罩這樣的習慣可能成為日常生活的一部分。④疫苗接種通行證及在人群密集場所的限制可能會成為強制性的。⑤易感人群必須保持高度警惕。⑥那些拒絕接種疫苗的人可以接受健康教育和鼓勵,但只能得到有限的保護

「重點知識點」

the burden/responsibility should fall on 重擔/責任應該落在…上,當我們在作文中寫到提出解決問題的那段時,我們可能會說We should keep social-distancing to curb the spread of Covid-19.我們應該保持社交距離,阻止疫情的傳播。此時我們就可以說重擔/責任應該落實在社交距離的保持上。The burden of curbing Covid-19 should fall more heavily on individual behavior, for example, keeping social-distancing and mask-wearing every day.抑制新冠病毒的重擔更多地應該落在個人的行為上,比如保持社交距離、每天都佩戴口罩。[寫作推薦]

①The persistence of acute infections and chronic, debilitating 「long covid」 means that the next stage of the pandemic sounds grim. ②But even if covid-19 has not been completely put to rest, the situation is immeasurably better than what might have been. ③The credit for that goes to medical science.

①急性感染的存在以及慢性、讓人身心衰弱的「漫長的新冠」意味著下一階段的疫情聽起來十分嚴峻。②但即使新冠疫情沒有完全平息,未來的形勢也比現在出現的情況好得多。③這些都歸功於醫學。


「重點知識點」

chronic長期的;慢性的;難以治癒(或根除)的(lasting for a long time; difficult to cure or get rid of)·the country's chronic unemployment problem該國長期存在的失業問題。[複習]perennial 長久的;持續的;反覆出現的,如a perennial unemployment problem長期存在的失業問題

credit讚揚,稱讚(praise or approval because you are responsible for sth good that has happened)·I can't take all the credit for the show's success — it was a team effort.演出成功不能都算成我一個人的功勞,這是集體努力的結果。[熟詞僻義]

Mutual support really matters

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