作者：蘭順正
首發自：CGTN
7月10日，土耳其總統埃爾多安正式宣布，位於伊斯坦堡的聖索菲亞大教堂將於7月24日以清真寺的形式重新向穆斯林開放，並將聖索菲亞大教堂的管理權移交給土耳其宗教事務國家委員會。無疑，由於聖索菲亞大教堂的特殊地位，埃爾多安此舉將成為全球的關注焦點。
聖索菲亞大教堂由東羅馬帝國皇帝查士丁尼一世於532年下令修建。在537年建成後，該教堂成了東羅馬帝國首都君士坦丁堡（今伊斯坦堡）的東正教牧首所在地，同時也是東羅馬帝國的皇家慶典舉辦場所。在隨後的近1000年時間裡，聖索菲亞大教堂一直都是世界最大的基督教堂。直至1453年奧斯曼人攻佔君士坦丁堡後將其改為清真寺。1934年，奉行世俗主義的現代土耳其國父凱末爾將這座建築又改為博物館。
不出所料的是，埃爾多安將聖索菲亞大教堂改為清真寺的決定，在國際基督教社會引發了軒然大波。如美國國務院發言人摩根·奧塔格斯表示：「我們對土耳其政府改變聖索菲亞大教堂地位的決定感到失望。」美國國際宗教自由委員會則言辭激烈，稱這是將這座博物館「毫不含糊地政治化」。法國外交部長也表示，法國對「強烈反對」土耳其改建聖索菲亞大教堂的決定。同時俄羅斯東正教教會發言人也對此嚴厲譴責。而對於來自國際社會的種種壓力，埃爾多安表示如何處置教堂是土耳其的內政，自己的決定是在代表國家行使主權權利，並敦促世界各方尊重土耳其的決定
有分析認為，此次埃爾多安在更改聖索菲亞大教堂定位問題上如此堅定，其直接原因是為了贏取民族主義選民支持。據報導，埃爾多安近年來非常重視紀念奧斯曼帝國擊敗拜佔庭的戰爭，每年都舉行盛大的慶祝活動。2018年，埃爾多安本人在聖索菲亞大教堂背誦了《古蘭經》的一段經文。而聖索菲亞大教堂可以說是土耳其奧斯曼帝國歷史最顯著的象徵，改建聖索菲亞大教堂有助於埃爾多安博取宗教保守派以及土耳其民族主義者的好感，以鞏固自己的政權基礎，並向其身居海外的政治對手施加壓力。另外，在新冠疫情的影響下，土耳其經濟損失慘重。據統計截至12日北京時間21點，土耳其新冠肺炎確診病例已達211981，目前名列世界第15位。死亡病例為5344例，每日新增病例仍維持在1000例以上。在過去兩年中，經濟已成為埃爾多安執政的正義與發展黨（AKP）的主要弱點。在2018年，裡拉就經歷了大跌，使通貨膨脹率飆升至25％，從而引發經濟衰退。去年土耳其的地方選舉演變成了關於埃爾多安應對這場危機的全民公決，正義與發展黨第一次在幾個主要城市遭受恥辱性的失敗。此次據國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預測，由於新冠疫情，土耳其經濟2020年將萎縮5％，通貨膨脹率將升至12％，而失業率將提高到17.2％。一些預測甚至描繪了土耳其失業率可能達到30％的嚴峻局面。因此埃爾多安也在利用聖索菲亞大教堂的定位改變來轉移國內民眾對新冠疫情造成的經濟損失的注意力。
從更深層次分析，聖索菲亞大教堂的定位改變是土耳其向「伊斯蘭化」的又一次邁進。現代土耳其國家建立於「一戰」之後，1924年，執政地位剛剛穩固的土耳其「國父」凱末爾宣布廢除象徵著伊斯蘭世界最高權威的「哈裡發」制度，並且關閉宗教學校，將宗教基金充公，開始實行世俗化。但是儘管土耳其的世俗化早已完成，主張重新「伊斯蘭化」聲音卻並未消失，而埃爾多安就是一個堅定的「伊斯蘭化」支持者。埃爾多安曾經多次組建政黨並大肆宣傳伊斯蘭主義，因而數度被政府取締。但是埃爾多安毫不避諱自己對伊斯蘭主義的支持，他曾公開拒絕做禮拜時在地面鋪報紙，以表明自己的虔誠，1998年，埃爾多安更是在公開場合頌揚宗教詩篇，被判刑入獄10個月。這就是所謂的 「錫而特反詩事件」。在成為土耳其領導人後，埃爾多安一方面大力振興土耳其的經濟，另一方面也大力推行保守、傾向伊斯蘭主義者的措施，比如發展宗教學校，擴大宗教事務局的權限，頒布限酒令，管制媒體，反對女性採取生育控制措施，並要求每個女性至少為國家生育三個孩子等等。
同時，近年來土國內對於「伊斯蘭化」的制約正在減少。如土耳其軍隊一直是維護世俗化的堅定力量，歷史上土耳其多個挑戰世俗化政策的政府，都被土耳其軍隊推翻。在2016年7月15日，土耳其軍方內部部分派系發動軍事政變，據稱其目的就是試圖推翻埃爾多安並中斷其主導的土耳其伊斯蘭化進程，但是該政變遭遇失敗，土耳其政府隨後迅速展開「清洗」活動，成千上萬名軍方人士和內政部官員受到牽連，這在客觀上為土耳其「伊斯蘭化」掃除了一個巨大障礙。
不難看出的是，隨著聖索菲亞大教堂被改為清真寺，未來土耳其「世俗化」的形象將被進一步的削弱，而距離政教合一的伊斯蘭國家則將又近一步。
（以下為英文原版）
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivers a televised address to the nation in Ankara, Turkey, on July 10, 2020. /Xinhua
Editor's note:Lan Shunzheng is a research fellow at the Charhar Institute and a member of the Chinese Institute of Command and Control. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
On July 10, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan officially announced that the Hagia Sophia in Istanbul will reopen to Muslims on July 24 as a mosque and transfer its management to Turkey's National Council for Religious Affairs. No doubt Mr. Erdogan's move has become a focus of global attention because of the Hagia Sophia's special status.
Hagia Sophia was built by the order of the Eastern Roman Emperor Justinian I in 532. After its completion in 537, the church became the orthodox patriarch of Constantinople (now Istanbul), the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire, and the site of royal celebrations for the Eastern Roman Empire.
For nearly 1,000 years, Hagia Sophia remained the largest Christian church in the world. It was not until the Ottomans captured Constantinople in 1453 that turned it into a mosque. In 1934, Kemal Ataturk, the secular founder of modern Turkey, turned the building into a museum.
Unsurprisingly, Erdogan's decision to turn Hagia Sophia into a mosque has caused some concern in the international Christian community.
As U.S. State Department spokesman Morgan Otagus said, "We are disappointed by the Turkish government's decision to change the status of Hagia Sophia." The French foreign minister also said his country was strongly opposed to Turkey's decision. A spokesman for the Russian Orthodox Church also condemned the act.
As for the pressure from the international community, Erdogan said that how to deal with the church is an internal affair of Turkey, and his decision is to exercise sovereign rights on behalf of the country.
Analysts say the immediate reason Erdogan is so determined to change the Hagia Sophia's status is to win over nationalist voters. Erdogan has reportedly made a point of commemorating the Ottoman defeat of the Byzantines in recent years, with big annual celebrations.
In 2018, Erdogan himself recited a Koran verse at Hagia Sophia. While the Hagia Sophia is a prominent symbol of Ottoman history, reconstructing it could help Erdogan mix favor with religious conservatives and Turkish nationalists, solidifying his power base and putting pressure on his political opponents abroad.
People visit the Hagia Sophia in Istanbul, Turkey, on July 10, 2020. /Xinhua
In addition, under the impact of COVID-19, Turkey's economy has suffered a heavy loss. According to statistics, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Turkey has surpassed 215,000 on July 15.
Over the past two years, the economy has become a main weakness of Mr. Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). In 2018, the lira plunged, inflation soars to 25 percent and it has triggered a recession. Last year's local elections in Turkey turned into a referendum on Erdogan's response to the crisis, and for the first time his party suffered humiliating defeats in several major cities.
This time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Turkey's economy will shrink by five percent, inflation will rise to 12 percent and unemployment will rise to 17.2 percent due to COVID-19.
Some forecasts even paint a grim picture of an unemployment rate that could reach as high as 30 percent. In this perspective, Erdogan is also using the Hagia Sophia's conversion as a distraction from the economic toll of COVID-19 at home.
On a deeper level, the change of Hagia Sophia's orientation is another step towards the "Islamization" of Turkey. Modern Turkey was founded after World War I.
In 1924, Ataturk, the country's founding father, announced the abolition of the Islamic caliphate, closing religious schools, confiscating religious funds and secularizing it.
But while Turkey's secularization has long been complete, the case for re-Islamization, of which Erdogan is a staunch supporter, has not gone away.
Before joining the politics, Erdogan has been banned by the government several times for forming political parties and trumpeting Islam. But Erdogan has been outspoken in his support for Islam, publicly refusing to lay newspapers on the ground during services to show his devotion, and in 1998, he publicly eulogized religious poetry and was sentenced to 10 months in prison. This is known as the Siddhartha Event.
After becoming a president, Erdogan invigorated the Turkish economy on one hand, on the other hand pushed forward the conservative, tendency of Islamist measures, such as the development of religious schools, enlarging the rights of religious affairs, promulgating a limit on a drinking games and so on.
At the same time, restrictions on "Islamization" in Turkey have diminished in recent years. The Turkish army, for example, has been a staunch force for secularization, and it has overthrown many governments in history that have challenged secularization.
On July 15, 2016, after a military coup that wanted to interrupt the Islamization process failed, the Turkish government quickly to begin a cleansing campaign, in which thousands of military personnel and the ministry officials were cleansed for political means.
It is not hard to see that, with the converting of Hagia Sophia into a mosque, Turkey's future image of secularization will be further weakened and the Islamic state will move closer to theocracy.