美國瘦肉型生豬每磅(約0.9斤)90美分

美國瘦肉型生豬每磅（約0.9斤）90美分

中國養殖網2017-07-17 15:03:21

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加裕養豬評論 Pork Commentary 加裕總裁兼CEO Jim Long Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc 美國瘦肉型生豬達到...

　　加裕養豬評論　　　　Pork Commentary　　　　加裕總裁兼CEO   Jim Long　　　　Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc　　　　美國瘦肉型生豬達到90美分　　　　US Lean Hogs Reach 90￠

　　

　　上周五美國瘦肉型生豬價格達到每磅90美分。豬肉的需求和低量的生豬供應把價格推得更高。加工商的利潤率仍然不錯，美國農業部的豬肉胴體屠宰分割價格超過每磅1.01美元，生產商和加工商都在賺錢。這是豬肉產業在迪士尼樂園奇幻的一天。

　　

　　Last Friday US lean hogs reached 90￠ lb. Pork demand is and lower hog supplies are driving prices higher.  Packers margins remain good with USDA pork carcass cut-outs over $1.01 per lb. Producers and Packers both making money.  It’s a virtual day at Disneyland for the Pork Industry.

　　

　　我父親總是說，市場導向的一個主要指標是「誰在給誰打電話」。 加工商稱幾乎好幾個月沒有人在尋找生豬，在世界豬肉博覽會上我們接到了加工商的電話。對我們來說，這預示著價格上漲。自世界豬肉博覽會以來，瘦肉型生豬已經上漲了每磅10美分或每頭豬20美元。誰在給誰打電話！隨著新屠宰加工廠的投產，我們期待更多的來電。隨著豬肉分割價格超過了每磅1.00美元的浮動，以及更低量的生豬供應，經營良好的加工商盈利豐厚。我們預計未來幾周將有更高的分割豬肉價格和更高的瘦肉型生豬價格。

　　

　　My father always said a major indicator of market direction was 「who’s calling who.」  For many months Packers called virtually no one looking for hogs, at the World Pork Expo we had Packers calling.  To us it was an indication of a coming surge in prices.  Since the WPX lean hogs have jumped over 10￠ lb. or $20 per head.  Who’s calling who! As the new packing plants come on board we expect even more calling.  With surging Pork cut - outs over $1.00 a lb. lower hog supplies, good packer margins.  We expect higher pork cut – outs and higher lean hog prices over the next few weeks.

　　

　　幾個月來，即使是夏季瘦肉型生豬期貨也有60美分，我們堅定地寫道，夏季的瘦肉型生豬將會達到80美分。這是基於我們所監測的全球生豬價格，它是北美在出口市場競爭的指標。出口拉動價格。許多預測者談到很多國家他們從未去過或經營過業務。我們的業務有幸能獲得全球市場的每日報導；這有助於我們預測過去被稱為「後40英畝」。

　　

　　For months even when summer lean hog futures were in the 60’s we steadfastly wrote summer lean hogs would reach into the 80’s.  This was based on Global Hog Prices we monitor as indicators where North American competes in the export market.  Exports pull prices.  A lot of forecasters talk about countries they never been too or done business in.  We are fortunate in our business to get daily Global Market exposure; it helps us see beyond what used to be called the 「back 40 acres」.

　　

　　這是加裕公司直接參與全球大型生產項目的原因之一。這是一個全球性的產業。我們需要「放眼全球，立足當下」。

　　

　　It’s one of the reasons Genesus is directly involved in the Global Mega Producer project.  It’s a Global Industry.  We need to all 「Think Globally, Act Locally」.

　　

　　這個連結可以讓你參觀在世界豬肉博覽會上舉行的全球大型生產商的採訪。

　　

　　This link will take you to an interview re Global Mega Producer held at the World Pork Expo.

　　

　　http://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/marketing/global-changes-pork-industry

　　

　　安大略省豬肉會議

　　

　　Ontario Pork Congress

　　

　　過去一周我們出席了安大略省豬肉會議。安大略省是加拿大一個擁有30萬頭母豬的省份。

　　

　　This past week we attended the Ontario Pork Congress.  Ontario as a province of Canada has about 300,000 sows.

　　

　　我們的觀察

　　

　　Our Observations

　　

　　加拿大的價格反映出開心的生產商正在衝擊著美國生豬價格，1加元價值75美分，正指揮著加拿大從分娩到育肥之間的利潤（目前每頭豬70-90美元）。

　　

　　Happy Producers Surging U.S hog prices which Canada mirrors and a Canadian dollar that is worth 75￠ to the U.S dollar is leading to Canadian Farrow to Finish profits of between ($70-90 per head currently)

　　

　　安大略沒有足夠的屠宰加工產能。每周有2-2.5萬頭豬運輸10個小時到魁北克的市場。

　　

　　Ontario has not enough packing capacity.  20-25,000 head a week travel 10 hours to Quebec for market.

　　

　　安大略省有很多生產商。其中只有2個生產商擁有超過1萬頭母豬，他們在15000頭的範圍內。大多數是家庭農場，種玉米，養豬，擁有自己的土地。許多地區的土地是每英畝2萬加元(44,000美元每公頃)。來自土地和牲畜生產的財富使許多生產商擁有數百萬的資產淨值。

　　

　　Ontario has many producers.  There are only 2 producers with over 10,000 sows, they are in the 15,000 range.  Most are family farms, grow corn, raise hogs, own land.  Land is in many areas is C $20,000 an acre ($44,000 Hectare).  The wealth from land and livestock production has lead to many producers having net worth in the multi million range.

　　

　　有一些新的母豬場正在建造，一些已經建完。很難獲得建築許可。2500頭的母豬場-500萬美元。育肥場裡2500頭豬需要價值300美元的空間。有些擴張，但較小的生產質量。每英畝土地價值2萬美元，繁育更新，豬舍-設備的使用年限，勞動力的可用性，所有這些使得一些人退出了生產。當塵埃落定時，我們預計不會有多少淨母豬數量擴張。

　　

　　There are some new sow barns being built, some finishing.  Hard to get building permits to build.  Sow Barns 2500 sows - $5 million U.S.  Finishing $300 U.S space (2500 head).  Some expansion but also smaller produces quality.  Land at $20,000 acre, generational change, age of barns – equipment, labor availability, all contributing to some producer exiting.  When dust settles we expect little net sow expansion.

　　

　　在安大略省豬肉會議上，有很多關於密西根州新屠宰加工廠的言論。那裡離一些安大略生產商只有不到4小時的路程。當這個廠開始投建的時候，可能會導致一些豬群的移動。當密西根州的屠宰加工廠投產時，泰森食品、印度豬肉和JBS Swift ad Hadfield可採購的生豬將會更少。

　　

　　Lots of talk at Ontario Pork Congress about the new packing plant in Michigan.  It is less then 4 hours from some Ontario Producers.  When it starts up probably will lead to some shifting where hogs go.  Tyson, Indian Pork and JBS Swift ad Hadfield pens will have fewer hogs to chase when Michigan starts.

　　

　　在加拿大，加工商不會購買瘦肉精生豬。而美國仍然有大量的瘦肉精豬。安大略省的生豬生產商注意到了飼餵瘦肉精生豬在成本和性能方面的好處。生產商已經迷失在這種利益中了。有幾個生產商告訴我們，如果美國的加工商會買飼餵瘦肉精的豬，那麼他們會想去美國養豬。這就是經濟優勢。

　　

　　In Canada Packers will not purchase Paylean hogs.  In the U.S lots of Paylean pigs still fed.  Ontario Hog Producers see the benefit of feeding Paylean in cost and performance.  The Producers have lost that benefit.  A couple producers told us that if U.S packers would buy Paylean fed pigs, they would want to go there.  The economic advantage.

　　

　　全球大型生產商

　　

　　Global Mega Producers