Shorting U.S.-listed Chinese companies is so yesterday. That’s the opinion of some hedge fund managers who』ve made money and are struggling to place fresh bets.
做空赴美上市的中國公司已經過時。這是一些曾經賺到錢但再次做空遇到困難的對衝基金經理所持的觀點。
Chinese firms listed in the U.S. have made headlines in recent months amid allegations of fraud and a clampdown by regulators. By the Securities and Exchange Commission’s account, more than two dozen Chinese firms listed in the U.S. in March and April alone announced auditor resignations or other major accounting travails.
因被指欺詐並受到監管機構整頓，赴美上市的中國公司在近幾個月成為媒體關注的焦點。根據美國證券交易委員會(Securities and Exchange Commission)的說法，僅在3月份和4月份，就有20多家在美國上市的中國公司宣布審計機構退出或出現其他重大會計問題。
Hedge funds have been circling Chinese stocks they want to bet against and focusing on those which listed through a backdoor process known as a 「reverse merger」 or 「reverse takeover」 that requires them to disclose less information to investors than a traditional initial public offering.
Reuters/Sukree Sukplan投資銀行Kerrisdale Capital Management LLC.的阿德朗吉說，這種情況一登上財經報紙頭版，很多人馬上就開始效仿，生意全都做不下去了。對衝基金一直逡巡於它們希望做空的中國概念股周圍，並盯上了那些通過「反向併購」實現借殼上市的公司。相比進行傳統的首次公開募股(IPO)，通過反向併購上市的公司按要求需要向投資者披露的信息更少。
「As soon as the story hits the front pages of the financial newspapers then a lot more people start piling in,」 said Sahm Adrangi at Kerrisdale Capital Management LLC. 「Every trade comes to an end.」
投資銀行Kerrisdale Capital Management LLC.的阿德朗吉(Sahm Adrangi)說，這種情況一登上財經報紙頭版，很多人馬上就開始效仿，生意全都做不下去了。
According to a letter to Kerrisdale investors, the New York based investment firm gained 73% in the first quarter, net of fees, one of the best-performing hedge funds globally. Short bets on Chinese companies were a big reason for its success.
Kerrisdale致投資者信顯示，一季度這家紐約投行除去管理費後實現了73%的收益，成為全球業績最好的對衝基金之一。做空中國公司股票是它取得成功的一個重要原因。
However, 「this trade’s becoming more crowded and the opportunity is not as exciting as it was six months ago,」 he said.
但他說，做這種交易的人越來越多，現在的時機已經不像六個月以前那樣激動人心。
John Hempton, chief investment officer at hedge fund Bronte Capital, based in a suburb of Sydney, Australia, agrees. He has about half of his short positions in Chinese stocks. In a letter to clients in May Bronte Capital said one of its accounts was up 65% in the year to date.
位於澳大利亞雪梨郊區的對衝基金Bronte Capital首席投資長漢普頓(John Hempton)也是這樣認為。他一半左右的空頭頭寸都押在了中國公司股上面。Bronte Capital在5月份致信客戶說，它的一個帳戶今年以來已增值65%。
「This year lots of frauds we have been aware of for some time have imploded. We have been working hard to find the next trade but the competition is much harder and the obvious frauds are already beaten up and have high short interest,」 he said.
漢普頓說，我們在一段時間以前就已經知曉的很多欺詐行為已在今年敗露；我們一直在努力尋找下一筆生意，但競爭已經比原來激烈得多，而明顯的欺詐行為已經暴露無遺，並且相關股票的賣空比例已經很高。
In the past, he could quickly study the financial statements of a Chinese company, work out relatively quickly that something looked odd and short the stock. 「That gig is up,」 he said.
在過去，他可以快速地研究某家中國公司的財務報表，相對快地發現某些地方不對勁，然後做空該股。他說，這樣的情況現在已經不復存在了。
Shorting Chinese stocks has always been tricky and demand has been growing fast in recent years. Hedge fund managers can’t sell stocks in China’s A-share market directly. Many have turned to selling Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong known as H-shares. However, even though the number of stocks available for shorting has grown rapidly since 2007, bankers servicing hedge funds say demand often outstrips supply.
做空中國股票一直不易，這方面的需求在最近幾年也一直快速增長。對衝基金經理無法直接在中國A股市場出售股票，於是很多人改為出售在香港上市的中國股，也就是H股。不過，雖然2007年可用於做空的股票數量已經快速增加，但為對衝基金服務的銀行人士說，需求常常超過了供給。
U.S.-listed Chinese stocks have generally been easier to short, but now that space is getting very crowded.
一般來講，在美國上市的中國股更方便做空，但現在這個領域已經變得非常擁擠。
One prime brokerage banker said that hedge funds can only borrow stock to sell short in about 10% of Chinese companies that listed in the U.S. via a reverse takeover, due to supply constraints. Demand from hedge funds grew sharply in the first few months of the year. 「Everything’s exhausted and dried up,」 he said.
一位一級經紀行人士說，由於供應受限，通過反向收購在美國上市的中國公司中，只有大約10%的公司股票可以被對衝基金借去做空。今年頭幾個月對衝基金的需求大幅增加。他說，所有一切都一乾二淨。
In many such stocks, about 20% to 40% of the market capitalization is already out on loan to short sellers. In the case of one stock, Puda Coal Inc., 73% of the free float is out on loan, he said. Generally if the percentage on loan reaches double-digits that is widely considered significant short interest.
在很多這類股票當中，佔各自公司市值20%到40%的股票都已經被借給了空頭。他說，普大煤業(Puda Coal Inc.)73%的流通股都已經被借了出去。一般來講，如果借出股票佔比達到10%以上，那麼該股就被認為存在很大的賣空比例。
Investors who want to short shares borrow the stock and then sell it, betting that the price of the shares will fall and that they can buy them back at a lower price, for return to the lender, usually a broker. In order to borrow the shares, the investors have to pay the owner a fee, normally an annualized percentage of the stock’s value.
想要做空股票的投資者會借入股票並賣出，押注股價將會下跌，然後就可以用更低的價格把這些股票買回來還給出借方。出借方常常是一家經紀行。為借入股票，投資者要向股票所有人支付一筆費用，這筆費用通常是這批股票價值的一個年化比例。
The cost of borrowing the stock to sell short is unusually high right now. In the case of China Agritech Inc. and China-Biotics, Inc., for example, a hedge fund would have to pay 99% of the annualized value of the shares ─ making it essential that the shares fall precipitously for the borrower to end up with a decent profit.
借入股票用以做空的成本目前高得反常。比如對於艾瑞泰克(China Agritech Inc.)和雙金生物(China-Biotics, Inc.)，投資者要付出相當於所借股票年化價值99%的費用，這意味著只有當這些股票的價格筆直下跌時，投資者最後才能獲得一筆可觀的利潤。
Maybe hedge funds need to stop seeking safety in numbers and research new ideas.
或許對衝基金不應該繼續在數字中尋找安全感，而應該研究新的點子出來。