拜登將很快取代川普入主白宮，這不一定會讓北京方面鬆一口氣。無論拜登與川普個人有多麼的不同，由川普政府發起並取得國會兩黨共識支持的大國競爭不僅將持續，而且在未來幾十年中可能會加劇。
當然，沒有什麼比兩個核大國之間的軍事衝突更令人擔憂的了，但是，鑑於臺灣海峽和南海不斷升溫的緊張局勢，這並非沒有可能。
在索馬利亞海域護航的中國海軍特戰隊員
儘管中國人民解放軍的軍事實力總體上落後於美軍，但是在西太平洋地區，這一差距正朝著有利於中國的方向縮小。2018年11月，美國國會成立的兩黨共同參與的國防戰略委員會就警告稱，若與中國就臺灣問題開戰，「美國可能面臨決定性的軍事失敗」。
中國和美國都不想打仗。雙方在建立信任措施方面達成了一些協議，例如《關於建立加強海上軍事安全磋商機制的協定》和《中美海空相遇安全行為準則》，以及政府和軍方的熱線。但事實仍然是，事故照樣會發生，就像2001年美國海軍偵察機與中國戰鬥機在海南發生的撞機事件一樣。在2001年、2009年、2013年、2014年、2015年和2018年，美國和中國的軍艦和飛機也有多次近距離接觸。
中美兩國能否防止一場意外演變成雙方都不願看到的衝突？從這點上講，中國國防部和美國國防部於2020年10月底成立了危機溝通工作組並舉行了第一輪會談，這是朝著正確方向邁出的一步。這是雙方第一次承認中美之間可能爆發危機。
全球公域中的合作
對於中美兩國來說，消弭衝突之道是將目光投向西太平洋以外的、雙方利益有重疊的全球公域。在遠離中國近海的地方，兩國沒有較量，合作是完全有可能的。
中美合作甚至有助於緩解兩國長期以來在航行自由等方面的分歧。儘管北京反對美國海軍在南海及中國近岸附近水域進行的「航行自由」行動，認為其對中國的安全構成了威脅，但是在諸如亞丁灣這樣的地方，情況就不同了。在那裡，中美海軍聯手其他國家的海軍一起進行反海盜巡邏，以維護航行自由。
由於90%的國際貿易是通過海運進行的，中國作為世界上最大的出口國和第二大進口國，與美國一樣，在國際海上通道的安全方面有著至關重要的利益。
如果中美兩國海軍能在亞丁灣成功合作，為什麼不把這種合作擴大到海盜仍然猖獗的幾內亞灣和蘇祿海的公海上呢？
實際上，隨著中國走向全球，她與美國的共同利益越來越多了。
中國此前曾表示，也值得在此重申，中國無意取代美國成為世界領袖或全球警察，也不尋求輸出其意識形態或發展模式。
中國海軍的發展已經取得了很大成就。如今，在艦船和潛艇數量上，中國海軍已經超過了美國海軍，解決臺灣或南海問題綽綽有餘。但必須指明的是，推動建設藍水海軍是保護中國無處不在的海外投資、商業資產和中國公民的必要舉措，也能讓中國承擔起一個大國義不容辭的國際義務。
中國軍隊和美軍可以合作的另一個領域是人道主義行動。在拜登擔任副總統的歐巴馬政府期間，兩國討論過向非洲維和人員提供聯合援助的問題，但在川普於2017年就職後，對話終止了。
中美合作的空間很大，包括那些看似非軍事的、但實際上與安全問題緊密相關的合作。例如，2014年，中國和美國科學家在獅子山的一間中國實驗室裡並肩工作，研究伊波拉病毒。新冠肺炎疫情的蔓延在全球已造成了160多萬人死亡，這清楚地表明，流行病等「非傳統」威脅甚至可能比一場大戰更加致命。更重要的是，這也說明中美兩個大國為什麼應該再次攜手。
其他需要合作的領域
隨著中國和美國軍隊之間差距的縮小，終有一天，兩軍必須討論戰略平衡的問題。
美國現在希望達成一項包括中國、美國和俄羅斯在內的多邊核裁軍協議。考慮到該協議會有多麼不平衡，中國是不會同意的。美國和俄羅斯各自擁有超過6000枚核彈頭。就算中國能夠發射到美國的陸基洲際彈道飛彈彈頭數量，如五角大樓在今年提交給國會的報告中所預測的那樣，在未來五年內將增長到大約200枚，美國對中國的這種提議聽起來也像是一個胖子邀請一個很瘦的人一起減肥。
在核問題上，如果中美兩國能像北京提議的那樣，轉向討論互不首先使用核武器，豈不是更好嗎？互不首先使用核武器不會降低美國在核力量和常規力量方面的整體優勢。儘管北京力爭要在本世紀中葉建成「世界一流軍隊」，但根據北京自己的路線圖，解放軍還需要30年時間才能接近美軍的水平。
在網絡戰、太空、人工智慧等新軍事領域，解放軍與美軍的差距就比較小了。但是，若要讓中國和美國開始討論這些問題，美國就必須首先取消對與解放軍交流的法律限制。
自2000年以來，美國法律就限制美軍在行動層面與解放軍開展交流，因為擔心這些交流可能有助於提升解放軍的作戰能力，並「造成國家安全風險」。
但是解放軍在過去20年取得的巨大進步表明，它不一定需要與美軍交流才能提高能力。根據五角大樓的說法，「中國在某些領域已經領先於美國」，例如在造船、陸基常規彈道飛彈和巡航飛彈，以及綜合防空系統等方面。
如果中國和美國陷入新的冷戰，那真是太不幸了。即便華盛頓的氣氛仍然是大國競爭，雙方也必須努力避免競爭滑向對抗，要做到這一點，方法仍然是合作，即尋找並抓住任何可能合作的機會。
（中國論壇許馨勻譯自《海峽時報》，翻頁閱讀英文原文）
China and US may be rivals, but cooperation is possible and desirable
That Mr Joe Biden will soon occupy the White House instead of Mr Donald Trump will not necessarily elicit sighs of relief in Beijing. However different Mr Biden might be from Mr Trump personally, the great power competition initiated by the Trump administration and backed by a bipartisan congressional consensus will not only remain on course but also likely intensify in the decades to come.
Of course, nothing is more worrisome than a military conflict between two nuclear powers, but this is not impossible, given rising tensions in the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea.
Although the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) military strength lags behind that of the US military in general, in the West Pacific, the gap is closing in China’s favour. In November 2018, the bipartisan National Defence Strategy Commission set up by the US Congress warned that in a war with China over Taiwan, 「Americans could face a decisive military defeat」.
Neither China nor the US wants a war. Both have a few agreements on confidence building measures such as the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement and the Rules of Behaviour for Safety of Air and Maritime Encouters and hotlines both at governmental and military levels. But the fact remains that accidents can happen, as with the deadly collision of a United States Navy surveillance plane with a Chinese fighter jet off Hainan in 2001. There have also been quite a few close encounters between American and Chinese military vessels and aircraft, in 2001, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2018.
Could the two countries prevent an accident spilling over into a conflict neither wants to see? In this regard, the setup and the first round of talks of the Crisis Communications Working Group between the Chinese Ministry of National Defence and US Department of Defence in late October is a move in the right direction. It’s the first time both sides acknowledged that a crisis could break out between them.
COOPERATION IN GLOBAL COMMONS
For China and the US to deconflict, the way forward is to look beyond the Western Pacific into the global commons where their common interests overlap. Away from China’s near sea, the two are not at loggerheads and cooperation is entirely possible.
China-US cooperation could even help to mitigate their longstanding disagreements on, say, freedom of navigation. While Beijing opposes the US Navy's freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea and waters close to its shores, seeing them as a threat to China's security, things are different in places such as the Gulf of Aden, where the two navies have joined other international navies in counterpiracy patrols to maintain freedom of navigation.
As 90 per cent of international trade is seaborne, China, being the largest exporter and the second-largest importer in the world, has vital interests in the security of international sea lanes, like the US.
If the Chinese and American navies can cooperate successfully in the Gulf of Aden, why not extend such cooperation to, say, the high seas of the Gulf of Guinea and the Sulu Sea, where piracy is still rampant?
In fact, as China goes global, it finds itself sharing increasingly common interests with the US.
China has said previously and it bears repeating here, that it has no intention to replace the US as a world leader or global cop. Nor does it seek to export its ideology or development model.
Much has been made of the growth of the PLA Navy, which today outnumbers the US Navy in ships and submarines. Its vessels are more than enough to solve China's Taiwan or South China Sea issues, but it is important to note that the push to build a blue water navy is a necessary move to protect China's ubiquitous investments, commercial assets and nationals overseas. It also enables China to shoulder the international obligations that are incumbent upon a major power.
Another area where the PLA and the US military could cooperate is in humanitarian missions. During the Obama administration when Mr Biden was vice-president, both countries discussed providing joint assistance to African peacekeepers, but the talks were scrapped after Mr Trump took office in 2017.
There is much scope for Sino-US cooperation, including ones that seem non-military but are indeed security-related. For example, in 2014, Chinese and American scientists worked side by side in a Chinese laboratory on Ebola in Sierra Leone. The spread of Covid-19 with a death toll of over 1.6 million people worldwide shows clearly how 「non-traditional」 threats such as pandemics could be far more lethal even than a major war and, more importantly, why the two major powers should join hands once again.
WORK NEEDED IN THESE AREAS
As the gap between the Chinese and the US militaries shrinks, the day will come when they have to discuss strategic equilibrium.
The US now wants a multilateral nuclear disarmament agreement involving China, the US and Russia. China will not agree to this given how lopsided the deal would likely be. Both the US and Russia have over 6,000 nuclear warheads each. Even if the number of warheads on China's land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States grow to roughly 200 in the next five years, as the Pentagon predicted in its report to Congress this year, such an American proposal to China sounds like a fat man inviting a lean man to go on a diet together.
On the nuclear issue, would it not be better if China and the US moved to discuss non-first use of nuclear weapons, as Beijing has proposed? No-first-use won't reduce the overall superiority of the US in both nuclear and conventional forces. Even though Beijing has vowed to build a "world-class military" by the mid-century, it would take the PLA another 30 years to come close to matching the US military, according to Beijing's own road map.
But in new military domains such as cyberwarfare, space and artificial intelligence, the gap between the PLA and the US military is smaller. But for China and the US to even start talking about these issues, the US has to lift the legal restrictions on exchanges with the PLA first.
Since 2000, American laws have restricted exchanges with the PLA in operational areas for fear that they might contribute to the PLA’s war-fighting capabilities and 「create a national security risk」.
But the tremendous progress of the PLA in the last two decades demonstrates that it doesn't necessarily need exchanges with the US military to grow in strength. According to the Pentagon, "China is already ahead of the United States in certain areas" such as in ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles and integrated air defence systems.
It would be most unfortunate if both China and the US were to slide into a new cold war. Even if the mood in Washington is one for big power competition, both sides must strive to avoid the contest sliding into confrontation, and the way to do so is still cooperation, looking for it and engaging in it wherever the opportunity arises.