十年首次降息?從鮑威爾國會證詞一探究竟(中英文)

　　本月底，美聯儲或將實施十年來的首次降息。

　　美國當地時間7月10日，美聯儲主席鮑威爾表示，自6月會議以來，經濟前景並沒有改善，圍繞著貿易緊張局勢的不確定性和全球經濟增速放緩的擔憂依然對美國經濟行為和前景構成壓力。通脹依然疲軟，可能比之前預料的持續更久。

　　鮑威爾的講話強化了市場對美聯儲降息的預期。周三美股收漲，標普500指數盤中一度升穿3000點大關，為史上首次。降息與否的最終決定將在7月31日議息會議結束之後公布。

　　從鮑威爾演講稿和回答中可以看出，美聯儲對於經濟前景的擔憂正在上升，主要原因有：海外幾個主要經濟體經濟增速顯著放緩，以及政府的決策懸而未決，如貿易問題、美國債務上限和脫歐等。鮑威爾承諾，將「採取適當行動」，以捍衛受到貿易爭端和全球經濟放緩威脅的經濟擴張。

　　如果降息基本板上釘釘，那隨之而來的疑問是降多少，25個基點or50個基點？高盛預計，美聯儲在本月底宣布降息25個基點的概率高達75%，而降息50個基點的概率只有15%。芝加哥商品交易所的美聯儲觀察工具顯示，市場預期美聯儲於7月降息的概率維持在100%。至於利率下調幅度，降息25基點的概率為73.4%，降息50基點的概率為26.6%。

　　除了對經濟前景表示擔憂，鮑威爾此次在國會上還回答了許多其他問題。其中備受關注的問題便與川普相關，從去年下半年開始，川普對鮑威爾的批評已經屢見報端，並稱他有權免去鮑威爾的職務。

　　「如果川普要求你辭職，你會怎麼做？」民主黨眾議員、眾議院金融服務委員會主席Maxine Waters提問。

　　「我當然不會辭職。」鮑威爾說，並重申，他打算幹完四年直至2022年2月任期結束。他還表示，公開批評不會增強更不會削弱美聯儲的獨立性。7月10日，國會兩黨的議員均明確表示，他們會站在鮑威爾這邊。

　　值得關注的是，對於當前廣受熱議的Libra，鮑威爾也給出了自己的看法。他表示，數月前，美聯儲就已經與Facebook代表舉行了會議，討論相關問題，並表示目前美聯儲已成立一個特別小組研究Facebook的加密貨幣。

　　鮑威爾強調，「Libra引發了許多關於隱私、洗錢、消費者保護和金融穩定方面的嚴重關切。在該計劃繼續推進之前，這些關切應該得到徹底和公開地解決。」

　　7月10日，美國華盛頓，美聯儲主席鮑威爾在眾議院金融服務委員會作證詞陳述。

　　REUTERS/Erin Scott

　　向國會提交的半年度貨幣政策報告

　　Jerome H.Powell 主席

　　致金融服務委員會，美國眾議院，華盛頓特區。

　　沃特斯主席，麥克亨利高級成員，以及其他委員會成員，我很高興向國會提交美聯儲的半年度貨幣政策報告。

　　首先，我要說的是，我和我的同事強烈支持國會為貨幣政策設定的最大就業和價格穩定目標。我們致力於就美聯儲的政策和活動提供明確的解釋。國會賦予我們重要的獨立性，使我們能夠根據客觀分析和數據有效地實現法定目標。我們感謝獨立性帶來了透明度的義務，這樣我們就可以為國會和公眾負責。

　　今天，我將回顧當前的經濟形勢和前景，然後再轉向貨幣政策。我還將提供我們對制定貨幣政策框架的現行公眾審查的最新情況。

　　經濟現狀與展望

　　經濟在2019年上半年表現相當不錯，目前的擴張正處於第11年。然而，通脹一直低於聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）的對稱2%目標，貿易緊張和對全球增長的擔憂等交叉因素一直在影響經濟活動和前景。

　　勞動力市場保持健康。從1月到6月，平均每月增加17.2萬個工作崗位。這個數字低於去年平均每月22.3萬，但高於為進入勞動力市場的新工人提供就業機會的速度。因此，失業率從12月的3.9%下降到6月的3.7%，接近50年來的最低水平。就業機會仍然充足，僱主越來越願意僱用技能較少的工人並對他們進行培訓。因此，近年來，強勁的就業市場帶來的好處得到了更廣泛的分享。事實上，低技能工人的工資增長更大。也就是說，一些人口群體和國家某些地區的個人繼續面臨挑戰。例如，非裔美國人和拉美裔人的失業率仍然遠遠高於白人和亞洲人的失業率。同樣，在城市地區，有工作的人口比例高於農村社區，這一差距在過去十年中擴大了。7月份貨幣政策報告中的一個框提供了不同教育水平的個人在當前擴張中就業和工資增長的比較。

　　2019年第一季度，國內生產總值（GDP）年增長率為3.1%，與去年同期持平。這一強勁數據主要受淨出口和庫存結構因素推動，這些因素通常不是持續勢頭的可靠指標。經濟增長的更可靠的驅動力是消費支出和商業投資。儘管第一季度消費者支出增長乏力，但新數據顯示，消費支出已反彈，目前正穩步增長。然而，企業投資的增長似乎明顯放緩，第二季度的整體增長似乎有所放緩。企業固定投資放緩可能反映出對貿易緊張和全球經濟增長放緩的擔憂。此外，第一季度住房投資和製造業產出下降，第二季度似乎又有所下降。

　　在去年大部分時間接近我們2%的目標後，以個人消費支出價格指數（PCE）12個月變化為衡量標準的總體消費者價格通脹今年早些時候有所下降，5月份為1.5%。不包括食品和能源價格的核心PCE通脹12個月來的變化，往往是未來通脹的更好指標，今年也有所下降，5月份為1.6%。

　　我們的基本預期是經濟增長保持穩定，勞動力市場保持強勁，通貨膨脹隨著時間的推移回到委員會2%的目標。然而，近幾個月來，對前景的不確定性有所增加。特別是，一些主要外國經濟體的經濟勢頭似乎有所放緩，這種疲軟可能會影響美國經濟。此外，一些政府政策問題尚未得到解決，包括貿易發展、聯邦債務上限和脫歐。還有一個風險是，疲軟的通脹將比我們目前預期的更為持久。我們正在仔細監測這些發展，我們將繼續評估它們對美國經濟前景和通脹的影響。

　　美國還繼續面臨重要的長期挑戰。在美國，那些處於主要工作年的人的勞動力參與率現在比其他大多數經濟體都要低。正如我提到的，在全國不同的人口群體和地區，勞動力市場存在令人不安的差異。中低收入的相對停滯以及低收入家庭向上流動的水平低，也一直受到關注。此外，找到促進生產力增長的方法，從長遠來看，這將導致工資和生活水平的提高，這仍然是國家的一項高度優先事項。我仍然擔心聯邦債務的高增長所帶來的長期影響，這會抑制私人投資，進而降低生產力和整體經濟增長。美國經濟的長期活力將得益於解決這些問題的努力。

　　貨幣政策

　　在此背景下，聯邦公開市場委員會今年上半年將聯邦基金利率的目標範圍維持在2-1/4%至2-1/2%。在1月、3月和5月的會議上，我們表示，我們將耐心等待，因為我們確定未來對聯邦基金利率的調整可能適合支持我們的最大就業和價格穩定目標。

　　在我們5月份的會議上，我們注意到全球增長和貿易的持續交互作用，但有初步證據表明這些交互正在緩和。來自中國和歐洲的最新數據令人鼓舞，有報導稱與中國的貿易談判取得了進展。我們持續的耐心立場似乎是適當的，委員會認為沒有強有力的理由調整我們的政策利率。

　　然而，自從我們5月份的會議以來，這些交互因素已經重新合併，產生了更大的不確定性。貿易的明顯進展變得更加不確定，我們在商業和農業方面的接觸報告加劇了對貿易發展的擔憂。來自世界各地的增長指標在網上令人失望，引發了人們對全球經濟疲軟將繼續影響美國經濟的擔憂。這些擔憂可能導致商業信心在最近的一些調查中有所下降，並可能已經開始向輸入的數據顯示出來。

　　在我們6月份的會議聲明中，我們指出，鑑於經濟前景的不確定性增加，通脹壓力減弱，我們將密切監測輸入的信息對經濟前景的影響，並將採取適當行動維持經濟增長。許多聯邦公開市場委員會的參與者認為，採取稍微寬鬆的貨幣政策的理由得到了加強。從那時起，根據輸入的數據和其他發展，貿易緊張局勢的不確定性和對全球經濟實力的擔憂似乎繼續影響著美國經濟前景。通貨膨脹壓力仍然保持沉默。

　　今年，聯邦公開市場委員會就我們實施貨幣政策的框架和完成美聯儲減持證券計劃作出了一些重要決定。在1月份的會議上，我們決定繼續實施貨幣政策，利用現有的政策體系，儲備充足，並強調，我們準備根據經濟和金融發展調整任何細節，以完成資產負債表正常化。在3月份的會議上，我們傳達了我們的意圖，即從5月份開始，減緩美聯儲證券持有總量的下降，並在9月份結束這些持有量的減少。7月份的貨幣政策報告提供了這些決定的細節。

　　7月份的貨幣政策報告還包括對貨幣政策規則的更新。聯邦公開市場委員會定期研究貨幣政策規則，根據通貨膨脹率和失業率建議聯邦基金利率水平。儘管使用這些規則需要仔細判斷，但我仍然認為這些規則很有用。

　　我們正在對我們的貨幣政策戰略、工具和溝通進行公開審查，這是對聯邦公開市場委員會的第一次此類審查。我們的動機是考慮如何改善委員會當前的政策框架，並使美聯儲處於最佳地位，以實現最大的就業和價格穩定。該審查始於通過一系列聯邦調查局的傾聽活動，與廣泛的人和團體進行接觸和協商。聯邦公開市場委員會將在即將舉行的會議上審議與審查有關的問題。我們將公開報告討論的結果。

　　謝謝。我將很高興回答你們的問題。

　　以下是英文全文：

　　Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

　　Chair Jerome H. Powell

　　Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C.

　　Chairwoman Waters, Ranking Member McHenry, and other members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.

　　Let me start by saying that my colleagues and I strongly support the goals of maximum employment and price stability that Congress has set for monetary policy. We are committed to providing clear explanations about our policies and activities. Congress has given us an important degree of independence so that we can effectively pursue our statutory goals based on objective analysis and data. We appreciate that our independence brings with it an obligation for transparency so that you and the public can hold us accountable.

　　Today I will review the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy. I will also provide an update of our ongoing public review of our framework for setting monetary policy.

　　Current Economic Situation and Outlook

　　The economy performed reasonably well over the first half of 2019, and the current expansion is now in its 11th year. However, inflation has been running below the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) symmetric 2 percent objective, and crosscurrents, such as trade tensions and concerns about global growth, have been weighing on economic activity and the outlook.

　　The labor market remains healthy. Job gains averaged 172,000 per month from January through June. This number is lower than the average of 223,000 a month last year but above the pace needed to provide jobs for new workers entering the labor force. Consequently, the unemployment rate moved down from 3.9 percent in December to 3.7 percent in June, close to its lowest level in 50 years. Job openings remain plentiful, and employers are increasingly willing to hire workers with fewer skills and train them. As a result, the benefits of a strong job market have been more widely shared in recent years. Indeed, wage gains have been greater for lower-skilled workers. That said, individuals in some demographic groups and in certain parts of the country continue to face challenges. For example, unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics remain well above the rates for whites and Asians. Likewise, the share of the population with a job is higher in urban areas than in rural communities, and this gap widened over the past decade. A box in the July Monetary Policy Report provides a comparison of employment and wage gains over the current expansion for individuals with different levels of education.

　　Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019, similar to last year's pace. This strong reading was driven largely by net exports and inventories—components that are not generally reliable indicators of ongoing momentum. The more reliable drivers of growth in the economy are consumer spending and business investment. While growth in consumer spending was weak in the first quarter, incoming data show that it has bounced back and is now running at a solid pace. However, growth in business investment seems to have slowed notably, and overall growth in the second quarter appears to have moderated. The slowdown in business fixed investment may reflect concerns about trade tensions and slower growth in the global economy. In addition, housing investment and manufacturing output declined in the first quarter and appear to have decreased again in the second quarter.

　　After running close to our 2 percent objective over much of last year, overall consumer price inflation, measured by the 12-month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), declined earlier this year and stood at 1.5 percent in May. The 12-month change in core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy prices and tends to be a better indicator of future inflation, has also come down this year and was 1.6 percent in May.

　　Our baseline outlook is for economic growth to remain solid, labor markets to stay strong, and inflation to move back up over time to the Committee's 2 percent objective. However, uncertainties about the outlook have increased in recent months. In particular, economic momentum appears to have slowed in some major foreign economies, and that weakness could affect the U.S. economy. Moreover, a number of government policy issues have yet to be resolved, including trade developments, the federal debt ceiling, and Brexit. And there is a risk that weak inflation will be even more persistent than we currently anticipate. We are carefully monitoring these developments, and we will continue to assess their implications for the U.S economic outlook and inflation.

　　The nation also continues to confront important longer-run challenges. Labor force participation by those in their prime working years is now lower in the United States than in most other nations with comparable economies. As I mentioned, there are troubling labor market disparities across demographic groups and different parts of the country. The relative stagnation of middle and lower incomes and low levels of upward mobility for lower-income families are also ongoing concerns. In addition, finding ways to boost productivity growth, which leads to rising wages and living standards over the longer term, should remain a high national priority. And I remain concerned about the longer-term effects of high and rising federal debt, which can restrain private investment and, in turn, reduce productivity and overall economic growth. The longer-run vitality of the U.S. economy would benefit from efforts to address these issues.

　　Monetary Policy

　　Against this backdrop, the FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 2?1/4 to 2-1/2 percent in the first half of this year. At our January, March, and May meetings, we stated that we would be patient as we determined what future adjustments to the federal funds rate might be appropriate to support our goals of maximum employment and price stability.

　　At the time of our May meeting, we were mindful of the ongoing crosscurrents from global growth and trade, but there was tentative evidence that these crosscurrents were moderating. The latest data from China and Europe were encouraging, and there were reports of progress in trade negotiations with China. Our continued patient stance seemed appropriate, and the Committee saw no strong case for adjusting our policy rate.

　　Since our May meeting, however, these crosscurrents have reemerged, creating greater uncertainty. Apparent progress on trade turned to greater uncertainty, and our contacts in business and agriculture report heightened concerns over trade developments. Growth indicators from around the world have disappointed on net, raising concerns that weakness in the global economy will continue to affect the U.S. economy. These concerns may have contributed to the drop in business confidence in some recent surveys and may have started to show through to incoming data.

　　In our June meeting statement, we indicated that, in light of increased uncertainties about the economic outlook and muted inflation pressures, we would closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would act as appropriate to sustain the expansion. Many FOMC participants saw that the case for a somewhat more accommodative monetary policy had strengthened. Since then, based on incoming data and other developments, it appears that uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook. Inflation pressures remain muted.

　　The FOMC has made a number of important decisions this year about our framework for implementing monetary policy and our plans for completing the reduction of the Fed's securities holdings. At our January meeting, we decided to continue to implement monetary policy using our current policy regime with ample reserves, and emphasized that we are prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments. At our March meeting, we communicated our intention to slow, starting in May, the decline in the Fed's aggregate securities holdings and to end the reduction in these holdings in September. The July Monetary Policy Report provides details on these decisions.

　　The July Monetary Policy Report also includes an update on monetary policy rules. The FOMC routinely looks at monetary policy rules that recommend a level for the federal funds rate based on inflation and unemployment rates. I continue to find these rules helpful, although using these rules requires careful judgment.

　　We are conducting a public review of our monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications—the first review of its kind for the FOMC. Our motivation is to consider ways to improve the Committee's current policy framework and to best position the Fed to achieve maximum employment and price stability. The review has started with outreach to and consultation with a broad range of people and groups through a series of Fed Listens events. The FOMC will consider questions related to the review at upcoming meetings. We will publicly report the outcome of our discussions.

　　Thank you. I am happy to respond to your questions.

本文首發於微信公眾號：中國金融四十人論壇。文章內容屬作者個人觀點，不代表和訊網立場。投資者據此操作，風險請自擔。

（責任編輯：李佳佳 HN153）