No 595 - Never what you expect

2021-02-15 BANDS 磐石

So, I start the new year with an apology, in the last few weeks of 2020 I did not keep to my usual routine of sending this letter every day. With friends and family in the US and Europe facing Christmas within difficult circumstances, going into the last days of the year with China firing on all cylinders it was difficult to write anything that did not sound triumphalist.
 
Last year, the Letter mostly wrote itself. Wuhan was locked down on the 20th January and I only had to look out the window or walk around my Shanghai neighbourhood to comprehend how misunderstood China was by the international media. The bizarre moments, simply looking out of the window to see a city that had stopped, while listening to western pundits on daytime CNBC TV (NY is 12 hours behind) stating emphatically that China was overreacting.
 
However, time moves on, and in poker, if your opponent is making mistakes, miscalculating the odds, playing recklessly, the important thing is not to try to win, it is simply to keep playing, and let their money flow to you. This year, China will play its hand in an understated way. It will stay closed and vaccinate its people. However, the growth in confidence inside China in the last 12 months is real. The way it is dealing with the infection, the recent returning moon-shot, its technology. Domestic China has confidence that its institutions can respond to national challenges. As the world economy stabilises, it is possible that this re-found self-belief will drive China forward for the next 10 years.
 
Making predictions is a parlour game, especially as the most influential US card is yet to be played. The two Georgia Senate seats which go to the poll’s tomorrow are currently too close to call. Should the Democrats win both seats they will control all three repositories of the legislative process in Washington. Therefore, the entire Biden domestic agenda is still a work in progress.
 
So, my advice for this year remains the same, the same as every year, it worked in 2020 and it will work again in 2021. It is the dynamic that underpins our business.
 
If you live outside of China, China is never what you expect.

Have a good day

John 

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