1、統計局數據顯示,一季度國內生產總值達15.85萬億元,同比增長6.7%。國泰君安任澤平稱,微觀水泥等數據與宏觀固投等數據、實體生產等數據與貨幣信貸等數據相互佐證,經濟回升力度較強,預計持續到二季度末三季度初。維持經濟中短期W型,長期L型判斷。
Bureau of Statistics data showed that the gross domestic product reached 15.85 trillion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Guotai Junan Securities Ren Zeping said the data of microscopic cement, macroscopic solid investment, entity production and monetary credit supports each other. The intensity of economic recovery is strong, which is expected to continue till the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter. The judgment needs to maintain the economy for W-type for a short term, and L- type for a long term.
2、海通證券姜超認為,一季度經濟低開高走,在地產、基建的強力拉升下,3月需求、生產均較1-2月大幅改善,預計二季度經濟有望繼續回升,通脹短期保持在溫和區間。但經濟改善力度漸弱、美元加息和通脹上行三大風險未消,仍需居安思危。
Haitong Securities Jiang Chao believes that the economy in the first quarter started low but has risen high. Under a strongly driven real estate and infrastructure, the demand and production in March both had a significant improvement compared with that of in the previous two months. It is expected the economy in the second quarter may continuously keep rising and the inflation will maintain at a moderate range in the short term. However, the weaker economic improvement efforts, the raising of US dollar interest rates and the ascending inflation, these three risks haven’t disappeared, so it still needs to be prepared for.
3、央行數據顯示,一季度,社會融資規模增量為6.59萬億元,同比多增1.93萬億元。其中,對實體經濟發放的人民幣貸款增加4.67萬億元,同比多增1.06萬億元。3月末,M2餘額144.62萬億元,同比增長13.4%;社會融資規模存量為144.75萬億元,同比增長13.4%。
The data of the Central Bank showed that the increment of the social financing scale was 6.59 trillion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of more than 1.93 trillion yuan. Among them, the issuance of RMB loans for the real economy increased 4.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.06 trillion yuan. In the end of March, the M2 balance was 144.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; the inventory of social financing scale was 144.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%.
4、招商銀行表示,首季度社融爆發式增長,主要由於穩增長措施帶來基建、房地產需求,另外,實體需求階段性恢復也對數據有所貢獻。不過,目前的信貸高增長與去槓桿去產能目標不符,且企業槓桿率已近極限,因此不排除央行有對銀行信貸政策收緊的風險,信貸高增較難持續。
China Merchants Bank said the explosive growth of social financing in the first quarter is mainly due to the demand of infrastructure and the real estate brought in by the steady growth measures. In addition, the periodic recovery of the physical requirement also contributes to the data. However, the current high credit growth doesn’t match with that of the target of de-leveraging and de-capacity, and the corporate leverage ratio has nearly reached its limit, so it does not rule out the risk of tightening the bank credit policy by the Central Bank, and high credit growth is difficult to sustain.
5、財政部數據顯示,3月份,全國一般公共預算收入11511億元,同比增長7.1%;一般公共預算支出16788億元,同比增長20.1%。受部分地區商品房銷售回暖以及上年基數較低等影響,房地產營業稅1917億元,同比增長32%;土地增值稅1127億元,同比增長19.9%。
The data of Ministry of Finance showed that the national general public budget revenue was 1.1511 trillion yuan in March, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; the general public budget expenditure was 1.6788 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%. Under the influence of sales of commercial housing rising in some areas and the comparatively lower?basic value of last year, the real estate sales tax was at 191.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%; the land value increment tax was 112.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%.
6、統計局數據顯示,3月末,商品房待售面積73516萬平方米,比2月末減少415萬平方米。對此,易居研究院表示,由於3月份是房企密集的推盤期,待售面積等可能會有一個上升的過程。但今年的格局開始有所變化,這和3月份市場交易比較火爆有關係。
Bureau of Statistics data showed that an area of 735.16 million square meters of commercial residential building was for sale by the end of March, reducing 4.15 million square meters compared to that of in the end of February. In this regard, the E-House Research and Development Institute said it was a period to set up plans for a dense housing business in March, and there may be a rise process for the areas for sale. However, this year’s situation begins to change, and it is related to the comparatively popular market trading in March.
7、住建部副部長陸克華表示,今年5月1日起階段性降低住房公積金繳存比例,凡繳存比例高於12%的一律予以規範調整,該政策暫按兩年執行。生產經營困難企業除可以降低繳存比例外,還可以申請暫緩繳存住房公積金。
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development deputy director Lu Kehua said that the housing provident fund deposit ratio will be lowered periodically starting from May 1st this year. For the deposit ratio, which is higher than 12%, will be adjusted according to the regulation. The policy will be implemented over two years temporarily. The enterprises with difficulty in production and operation cannot only reduce the deposit ratio, but can also apply for suspending the deposit of housing provident fund.
8、經濟參考報從工信部獲悉,新材料產業「十三五」規劃編制基本結束,已於近期送至相關主管部門審議,預計將於今年上半年正式公布。作為我國七大戰略新興產業和「中國製造2025」重點發展的十大領域之一,新材料是整個製造業轉型升級的產業基礎。
Economic Information Daily learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that the planned compilation of the new material industry has basically been completed during the period of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan". It has been sent recently to the relevant authorities for consideration and is expected to be officially announced in the first half of this year. As one of the ten key development areas in China's seven strategic emerging industries and "Made in China 2025", the new material industry is the industrial foundation for the transformation and upgradation of all manufacturing.
9、上證報消息,央行近日召開會議進一步對建立全國性的票據交易所進行論證。多位受訪人士指出,目前探討的問題主要集中在是否強制推行電子票據上。此外,央行牽頭的票據交易所的性質、接入機構、操作流程設計也在討論中。票據交易所設在上海的可能性極大。
Shanghai Securities news, the Central Bank recently held a meeting to carry out the demonstration for further establishing a national clearinghouse. Many respondents pointed out that the current discussed issue mainly focused on whether or not to impose electronic notes. In addition, the nature of the clearinghouse, the access mechanism, the operational design led by the Central Bank is also under discussion. The possibility of a Clearinghouse being based in Shanghai is large.
10、保監會副主席梁濤表示,國內系統重要性保險機構監管制度是在借鑑國際經驗的基礎上,探索建立的具有中國特色的保險監管制度。下一步保監會將發布一系列相關制度,並公布首批國內系統重要性保險機構名單。
Vice-Chairman of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) Liang Tao said that the domestic systemically important insurance regulatory system is to explore the establishment of the insurance regulatory system with Chinese characteristics based on what has been learnt from international experience. The next step for the CIRC is to publish a series of related systems and publish a list of the first batch of domestic systemically important insurance agencies.
11、格上理財數據顯示,2016年一季度,同業存單、短期融資券、公司債發行數量位列前三;同業存單、地方政府債、政策銀行債、短期融資券發行金額較大;可轉債、國際機構債發行規模較小。
Geshang licai data showed that the issuance number of interbank deposits, short-term financing bonds and corporate bonds ranked among the top three in the first quarter of 2016; the issuance amount of interbank deposits, local government bonds, policy bank bonds and short-term financing bonds is quite large; the issuance scale of convertible bonds, and international agency debts is quite small.
12、中證網消息,15日,中科大正式發布我國首臺特有體驗交互機器人「佳佳」,在傳統功能性體驗之外,中科大首次提出並探索了機器人品格定義,以及機器人形象與其品格和功能協調一致。可見,我國機器人產業發展正在提速。
China Stock news, University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) officially released China's first unique experiential and interactive robot, "Jia Jia". Beyond the traditional functional experience, USTC first proposed and explored the definition of the robot character, and the image of the robot and its character and function to be coherent. It is clear to see that the robot industry in China is accelerating.
13、路透社調查顯示,美聯儲今年將加息兩次,下次最有可能是在6月,但這種可能性已消退,因有跡象顯示今年經濟開局不利,通脹仍較疲弱,而且全球經濟不振。
Reuters survey showed that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates twice this year. The next time is most likely to be in June, but this possibility has faded. There are signs to show the economy has had a bad start this year. The inflation is still weak, and the global economy is weak.
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