題目：收入暴跌，生活無比艱難，伊朗政府冒險為石油找買家
在美國的制裁下，伊朗的石油收入暴跌，為了給石油找到新買家，伊朗政府開始用非常冒險的方式搞推銷。
【感謝局勢君翻譯團隊全體成員】：Carry、一平方米、阿琳仔°、Hanferia、Arthur、奤駒、jessie、原來Molly有魔力
剛剛過去的這個周末，伊朗的官員們公布了幾件事兒，導致一些國家驚慌不已。禮拜六那天伊朗一名發言人說已經能把鈾的濃度提高到60%了，歐美聽說後那是一片驚慌；禮拜天人在俄羅斯的伊朗副外交部長說了：伊朗永遠不搞核武器，既不買也不造；還是在禮拜天，伊朗總統魯哈尼興奮地宣布：伊朗發現了超大油田。
Over the past weekend, Iranian officials made several announcements, which caused panic in some countries. On Saturday an Iranian spokesperson said that it could enrich uranium concentration up to 60%, which sent a wave of panic through Europe and America; on Sunday Iranian deputy foreign minister said in Russia: Iran will never pursue nuclear weapons, neither buy it nor make it; also on Sunday, Iranian president Rohani announced excitedly that: Iran has discovered a huge oil field.這三個男人說的話都挺勁爆的，無論內容是真是假，都足以讓美國沉默讓歐洲驚訝，問題是為什麼他們要接二連三地說這些有的沒的呢？
The announcements from these three men were all pretty explosive. Regardless of whether they are realistic or not, they can mute the US and shock the Europe. Our question is why they said these sort of gossip one after another?伊朗現在的處境特別艱難，三年前它的石油可是日銷280萬桶的，現在跌落到了10萬桶左右，這粗略一算收入就掉了二十多倍。這就好比一個曾經月入5000的人，現在每個月連200塊錢都掙不到，這日子被過成什麼樣可想而知了。
Iran's situation is really tough now. Three years ago its oil sales were at 2'8 million barrels a day, but now it has dropped to about 100 thousand barrels, which roughly translates to a 20-fold reduction in revenue. This is just like someone who once had an income of 5 thousand dollars per month, but now barely earns 200 dollars per month. You can imagine what kind of life he would be living.其實伊朗比其他海灣國家要強上很多，那幾個我們熟知的土豪國家比如沙特、科威特或者阿聯，政府收入的90%都依賴賣油，而伊朗只佔了60%。再說人家伊朗人既不過春節也不過聖誕，儘管生活壓力一直在膨脹，但還不至於出現年關難過的情況。
Actually Iran is better off than other Gulf countries. For the several countries that we are familiar with such as Saudi Arabia、Kuwait or UAE, 90% of government revenue comes from oil sales, but for Iran it's only 60%. Furthermore the Iranian people don't celebrate Chinese New Year or Christmas, so even though the pressure of life keeps rising, it has not reached an unbearable extent.可是石油收入畢竟佔了大頭，賣油的錢要用來養活龐大的軍隊，要打點廣泛存在的宗教階層，剩下的還要拿去修路燈建公園發補貼。現在這筆錢沒了，那麼這些活兒的質量就很難保證了，一段時間沒收入還可以花存款，長期沒收入那可是要出事兒的！會出什麼事兒呢？
But oil is still the main source of revenue, which is needed to support a huge army, to provide for a wide range of religious groups, to repair street lamps and build parks and give out subsidies. Now that this sum of money is gone, the quality of these things is hard to guarantee. Savings can sustain a short period of time like this, but there will be a big trouble if there is no income for a long time. What will it be?那就是伊朗的整體消費會萎縮。消費就是花錢，花錢的勇氣來自收入的多少，每天都有進帳那花錢的膽子就大，如果見天地沒有收入，即使手頭有存款也是捨不得花的。伊朗政府的一大塊收入沒了，大量靠政府養活的人也就變得拮据了，這一大批人不敢花錢的結果，是消費的逐漸萎縮，長期鬧下去可能引起經濟的停滯。
It is Iran's overall consumption will shrink. Consumption is spending money, the courage to spend money comes from the amount of income, when it piles up every day there will be more courage, if there is no income day after day, even if there is some savings in hand no one is willing to spend. A large portion of Iranian government's income has gone, so a large number of people who rely on the government would be straitened, the result of this, is a gradual decline in consumption, which in the long run may lead to economic stagnation.停滯是最可怕的事兒，當商品不再流通的時候，企業就沒必要開工了，工人也沒必要去上班了。不上班就沒有收入，沒收入就只能花存款，存款花完後就還不起車貸和房貸，也買不起柴米油鹽，心裡就充滿了絕望和憤怒。這種時候一旦有朋友打電話喊他上街，一起去街上罵魯哈尼或者撕哈梅內伊的畫像，那他一定會去的。
Stagnation is the most terrible thing, when goods are no longer in circulation, there is no need for businesses to run, and workers also do not have to work. No work no income, no income can only live on savings, once savings can not afford the car and house, nor the daily necessities, their hearts will be full of despair and anger. At such a moment if someone incited him to stage a demonstration in the streets, to scold Rouhani or tear up the portrait of Khamenei, he would definitely be there.所以伊朗總統魯哈尼和宗教領袖哈梅內伊現在非常痛苦，他倆必須要趕在伊朗人出門罵街之前給石油找到銷路，不然多年培養的革命衛隊就得上街維護治安，那畫面既難看又痛心。這會被沙特看笑話的，也會被美國人利用，還有以色列搞不好會落井下石，因此魯哈尼和哈梅內伊現在就是在跟時間賽跑。
So Iranian President Rouhani and religious leader Khamenei are now in great pain, they have to find a market for oil before the Iranians go out for demonstration, otherwise the Revolutionary Guards they have trained for years would have to keep peace on the street, that scene would be both bad and sad. It will not only be laughed at by Saudi Arabia, be manipulated by Americans, but also be screwed up worse by Israel, so Rouhani and Khamenei are now racing against time.伊朗的石油當然有市場，過去它也累積了很多客戶，只是老客戶們現在不敢找它買油，因為美國不讓買。如果不聽美國的話非要買的話，那它就會失去美國的市場，以及收穫更多的麻煩。不買伊朗的油可以買沙特的油，但是失去了美國的市場那就萬劫不復了，幾乎找不到替代者，所以結論是：美國人不讓買那就不能買的呀。
There is definitely a marketplace for Iran's oil, and it has acquired a large number of customers, however these customers are now hesitating to place orders, as the Americans forbid. If they refuse to obey, they would lose the American market, and get more troubles. Iran's oil can be substituted by Saudi's oil, while there would be no turning back if losing the American market, because it is hardly possible to find a substitution. So the conclusion is: do as the Americans requested.和時間賽跑的魯哈尼和哈梅內伊是搞不定川普的，想讓川普收回成命，恐怕伊朗得解散自家的軍隊。如果軍隊解散了，那他倆估計也活不過大年三十，這還不如什麼都不做待家裡喝茶活的久。而且您要是知道了川普制裁伊朗的真正原因，就會明白即使伊朗解散了軍隊也沒有用，所以魯哈尼和哈梅內伊只能把渴望的眼神投向歐盟。
Rouhani and Khamenei are unlikely to get Trump to back down while racing against time, if they want to see sanctions removed, then Iran would have to disband its army. If the army is disbanded, then they both probably would not see the sunrise of a new year, so it might be better to do nothing. And if you know the real reason behind trump's sanctions on Iran, you will understand that it would not make any sense even if Iran disbands its army, so Rouhani and Khamenei could only cast their eager eyes on the EU.歐盟領導人一直牽掛著伊朗的安危，他們心裡很清楚地中海已經無法阻止中東人民對美好生活的嚮往，假如伊朗出點什麼事兒，那中東十有八九就要出事，中東一旦有事那裡立刻變成難民的製造基地，難民會像幾年前那樣湧入歐洲求收留。去的人多了歐盟就面臨著分裂的危險，到那個時候英國人會一邊幸災樂禍地笑，一邊高喊著脫歐萬歲。
The EU leaders have been concerned about Iran's safety, as they know the Mediterranean is no longer able to stop the people in Middle East to pursue a better life, if something happened to Iran, then the peace in Middle East would not be realistic, and this region would immediately become a manufacturing base for refugees, who would flood into Europe as they did a few years ago. More refugees there are more possibilities of a divided EU will be. By that time the British would be laughing and screaming, while shouting out long live Brexit.那麼伊朗是用什麼方法向歐盟求助的呢？伊朗的做法居然是威脅。
So in what way did Iran turn to the EU for help? What the Iranians did was to threat.在政治層面，伊朗對內對外都比較強勢，這是它所處的惡劣環境造成的，就像以色列比較好戰一樣。伊朗周邊好些個國家都跟它有宗教矛盾，還有美國及其盟友也把它當死敵看，伊朗只有強勢才能確保自己的存在，和顏悅色或者溫柔相待的外交方式是不存在的，關起門來可以流淚磕頭，出了門就必須一臉的倔強。所以明明想求歐盟幫自家的石油去庫存，但是伊朗卻沒有開口求人家，反而一直在威脅對方。
Politically, Iran always shows its mighty side both internationally and domestically, which boils down to its tough surroundings, just as the warlike Israel. There are more than a few religious countries contradict Iran in terms of religions, also the US and some of its allies treat Iran as their foe, consequently only when Iran becomes mighty will it remain secure, which explains the impossibility of Iran implementing amiable diplomacy, it's acceptable to be soft domestically, but never to show it to outsiders. Therefore despite that Iran is desperately seeking for EU's help for oil destocking, Iran did not beg for it, instead it has been threatening the other.伊朗的威脅是一步一步地違反《核問題協議》，把離心機上的灰塵吹去並將其重新啟動，突破協議規定的數值增加鈾的儲量，突破協議規定的數值提高鈾的豐度，當這兩個指標一直被提升的時候，伊朗似乎走向了研製核武器的羊腸小道。
The tactic of Iran's threat is to act against the Iran Nuclear Deal step by step, sweeping away the dust on centrifuge and restarting it, breaking the stipulated number on the deal by increasing the uranium reserves, and by raising uranium abundance, when the two index keep climbing, Iran seems to step on the narrow path of developing nuclear weapons.假如波斯人某一天成功引爆了核彈，那麼伊朗在中東會格外耀眼，受它支持的武裝組織也會更加活躍。為了夜裡睡得踏實，以色列和沙特也得搞到這玩意兒並引爆才行，那麼中東的沙漠可就變成核試驗場了，即使不發生衝突就那麼僵著，大量的難民也會舉家往歐洲跑。去的人多了歐盟依然面臨著分裂，屆時英國人會一邊嘲笑它，一邊慶祝脫歐成功，那得多氣人啊！
If one day the Persians detonate the nuclear bombs successfully, then Iran will be deemed as the shining star in middle east, which will also activate those armed groups supported by Iran. In order to have a sound sleep at night, Israel and Saudi would have to get this staff and ignite it so as to counterbalance, as a result the whole desert in Middle East would turn into a nuclear test site, even though there's no friction between two sides, a great number of refugees would still flush into Europe. Such crowds will put EU under great pressure of fracture, by the time when it happens the Brits would laugh at it, while cheering for Brexit, all of these would be so irritating for EU!11月9號是上個禮拜六，伊朗原子能組織的發言人在一個會上說，咱們已經有能力把鈾的豐度從3%提高到5%了，目前我們單位接到的需求就是提高到5%，當然提高到20%甚至是60%都不是問題，上級一句話的事兒。
On Nov 9 last Saturday, a spokesperson from Iranian Organization of Nuclear Research declared in a conference that, they are able to raise uranium abundance from 3% to 5% now, the order we received from upper level is to increase it to 5%, of course 20% or even 60% is totally doable, the word from leaders is all that matters.鈾是富含能量的好東西，既可以民用又可以軍用，豐度在3%的時候可以用來發電，豐度提高到90%就能用來做核武器了。提高鈾的豐度是一件極度困難的事兒，難的不是方法而是設備，能把濃度提高到90%的離心機只有那幾個大國有，這種國寶級的設備被嚴格管制，伊朗它搞不到。伊朗手頭的設備是蘇聯解體的時候趁亂搞到的早期低配版，後來自己研製和升級，有沒有升到高級版很難說。
Uranium is a good source of energy. It can be used for both civilian and military purposes. Uranium can be used to generate electricity at the abundance of 3%. If the abundance is increased to 90% it can be used to make nuclear weapon. Increasing the abundance of uranium is extremely difficult. The difficulty is not the method but the devices. Only a few powers have centrifuges that can increase the abundance to 90%. The national treasure level devices are strictly regulated. Iran can't get them. The Iranian devices are an early low-quality version that was grabbed during the collapse of the Soviet Union. Iran has developed and upgraded these devices, and it is hard to say whether they have been reached to the advanced version.弄清楚了伊朗原子能機構發言人公布的那三個數字的意思，美國國務蓬佩奧慌忙表了態，他說伊朗這是在威脅整個世界，它想用核訛詐的方法迫使歐洲幫它的石油去庫存，各單位注意不要上它的當，也不要屈服於伊朗的這種威脅。
When getting the meaning of the three figures released by the spokesman of Iran's atomic energy agency, the US secretary of state Pompeo made a statement immediately. He said Iran was threatening the world, and it wanted to use nuclear to blackmail Europe to destock its oil. Everyone should be careful, not to fall for it nor give in to the threat of Iranian.就像有些男生總是用惡作劇的方式向心儀的妹子表達愛意一樣，伊朗總是用威脅的方式求歐盟幫忙，這都是性格使然。用濃度為60%的鈾來威脅歐盟，本身就很冒險，畢竟歐盟也是有頭有臉的組織，它很反感伊朗的這種手段。伊朗不是不清楚這一點，用這種令歐盟乃至全世界都反感的方法，說明伊朗的情況很不樂觀，它只能冒險試一試了。
Just like some guys always use pranks to show their love to their favorite girls. Iran always uses threats to ask the European Union for help. It's all in character. Threatening the European Union with 60% Uranium, would be risky in itself. After all the European Union is also a powerful organization. It dislikes this approach of Iran. Iran is not unaware of this. In a way that the European Union and all over the world find distasteful, it suggests that Iran is in a really bad situation. It has to take some risks.彭佩奧說伊朗在玩「核訛詐」，倒是說得一針見血，他號召大家不要上當也確實有點逼人太甚了。當年要不是他的老闆川普單方面撕毀核協議，伊朗也不至於走到今天啊，如果說伊朗今天用核來訛詐歐盟，那麼當年美國就是用撕毀協議來訛詐整個世界，結果還不是沒有訛詐成功，才把事兒鬧成今天這樣嗎？
Pompeo said Iran is playing nuclear blackmail, actually he got the point, while his call to not fall for it is a bit overwhelming. If his boss Trump didn't tear up the nuclear deal unilaterally, Iran wouldn't be forced to this point, if we say that Iran uses its nuclear program to blackmail the European Union, then we could say the United States blackmailed the whole world through tearing up the deal, but it didn’t succeed, which led to the current situation.伊核協議是由中國、俄羅斯、法國、英國、德國和美國一起籤的，在川普獨特的腦迴路裡，以上這些國家多多少少都是自己眼裡的肥肉，有些應該接受自己的關稅，有些應該替自己多掏軍費，有些應該多買美國的產品，還有的應該在中東地區有所收斂。那麼有沒有某種技能可以對以上5國來個範圍攻擊呢？這個技能就是把6國一起籤的核協議給撕了。不得不說，幫川普想出這個主意的人實在是瘋狂，是可以載入史冊的那種瘋狂。
The Iran nuclear deal was signed by China Russia France Britain Germany and the US, in Trump's unique brain circuits, these countries are more or less his own prey, some should accept his tariffs, some should pay more for his military, some should buy more American products, and some should restraint himself in the Middle East. Is there a skill that can be used to attack all the 5 countries at the same time? The skill is to tear up the nuclear deal signed by the 6 countries together. We have to admit that, people who came up with this idea for Trump are crazy, and their craziness is the kind going down in history.川普撕了協議逼著伊朗研製核武器，最後的結果會影響所有人，既威脅了歐洲的安全，又影響了國際油價，按理說誰都會阻止他的瘋狂行為。因此在川普的劇本裡，以上5國應該在他提出這個瘋狂想法的時候集體求他高抬貴手，假如他們態度誠懇出手大方的話，他可以考慮停止對伊朗的制裁，讓一切恢復往日的寧靜。
Trump tore up the deal to force Iran to develop nuclear weapons, the final consequence would affect everyone, it not only threatens the security of the Europe, but also influences the oil price globally, logically everyone should stop his crazy behavior. Therefore in Trump's script, all the 5 countries above should beg for mercy when he comes up with this crazy idea, if they are sincere and generous enough, he would consider to lift sanctions on Iran, and let everything back to normal again.然而大家在保全本國利益和犧牲伊朗利益面前，心照不宣地選擇了保全本國利益，最後伊朗遭受了美國的制裁，石油賣不出去收入暴跌。這個是川普那個劇本所設計的最差結果，雖然他不喜歡這個結果，但是在他沒有得到好處之前，他不好意思喊停。
Faced with the choice between protecting the national interests of their own country and sacrificing those of Iran, everyone chose the former tacitly, thus resulted in Iran being sanctioned by the US, consequently Iran's revenues plummeted due to the decline of oil prices. This is the worst-case scenario of Trump's playscript, though he doesn't like it, he cannot stop it, at least before he gets some what he wanted.伊朗核機構發言人的一番話引起的動靜太大，禮拜天人在莫斯科參加核不擴散大會的副外長急忙澄清，說伊朗不會研製核武器，也不會買核武器，核協議現在還沒有過期，它依然是長期有效的，伊朗不玩核武器的義務也是長期有效的。
The remarks made by the spokesman of the Iranian nuclear agency are so explosive, the deputy foreign minister of Iran attending the nuclear non-proliferation conference in Moscow, clarifies urgently that Iran would not develop nuclear weapons, nor buy them, the nuclear deal has not expired yet, and it will be effective in a long term, therefore Iran's obligation to keep clear of nuclear weapons will also be effective in a long term.這一切就像設定好的一樣，先讓一個發言人公布一點嚇人的數據試試各方的反應，然後讓級別更高的副外長在合適的場合表明官方的態度：有能力做是一回事兒，做不做是另外一回事兒。他這麼說或許是希望某些國家不要小看人，也希望歐盟看到自己的誠意，請繼續幫自己想辦法。
All of this seems to be a play after rehearsal, firstly a spokesperson announces a scary number to test the reaction of all parties, then a higher-level deputy minister declares officially: owning the ability is one thing, to do or not to do is another thing. Perhaps he is replying to the underestimation from some countries about Iran, or maybe he wants to show his sincerity to the EU, thus figuring out some ways to help Iran out.在伊朗副外長說不搞核武器的同一天，伊朗總統魯哈尼興奮地宣布發現了500億桶規模的大油田，一次性把伊朗的石油儲備提高了三分之一。根據供求關係，伊朗的石油突然增加了三分之一，那麼伊朗的油價是不是又要降一降呢？或許魯哈尼想說的是：我這兒貨源充足價格優美，請各位買家爸爸們不要再猶豫了。
On the same day when Iran's deputy foreign minister denied the possibility of nuclear weapons, Iran's President Rouhani announced excitedly the discovery of a large oil field of 50 billion barrels, which increased Iran's oil reserves by one-third. According to the law of supply and demand, since Iran's oil reserves increased by one-third suddenly, will Iran's oil price go down? Perhaps what Rouhani wants to convey is: Iran have adequate supply of oil, please don't hesitate to buy oil from us.