Wrong reaction
Was shutting Japan’s reactors deadlier than the Fukushima disaster?
關閉日本的反應堆比福島核災難更致命嗎？
High power prices caused the poor to turn off the heat, killing many of them
高昂的電力價格使窮人關掉了暖氣，許多人因此喪命。
SNUGGLED AMID lush fields and forests, Namie was doomed by its proximity to the local power plant. In 2011 the town’s 21,000 residents were ordered to evacuate after a tsunami overwhelmed the Fukushima nuclear facility 4km away. Soon after, all 54 reactors in Japan were shut down amid safety fears, winking out nearly 50 gigawatts of generating capacity. A new paper* argues that that decision may have cost far more lives than the initial disaster.
依偎在鬱鬱蔥蔥的田野和森林中，浪江町因其靠近當地發電廠而遭遇了厄運。由於2011年的一場海嘯席捲了4公裡外的福島核設施，該鎮的21000名居民被命令撤離。此後不久，由於擔心安全問題，日本的所有54座核反應堆都被關閉，這減少了將近500億瓦的發電量。一篇新論文指出，這一決定造成的生命損失可能比一開始的核事故還要多得多。
The Fukushima accident led to a surge in imports of coal, gas and oil. In the four years after the meltdown, the share of generation from fossil fuels leapt from 62% to 88%. Nuclear power, which once produced over 30% of Japan’s electricity, fell to zero. The result, say three academics, was a sharp spike in electricity prices.
福島事故導致煤炭、天然氣和石油進口激增。危機發生後的四年中，化石燃料發電的份額從62％躍升至88％。核能生產的電力在日本佔比曾經達到30％以上，如今發電量已降至零。三位學者說，這帶來了電價急劇上漲的結果。
Many people responded to higher prices, in turn, by switching off their electric heaters. Average electricity consumption per household fell by 8% in some areas in 2012, according to government surveys. The biggest drops were in regions such as Tokyo, where electricity prices rose by over a third. The increased exposure to the cold in winter caused an additional 1,280 deaths from 2011 to 2014, the authors claim. Given that fossil fuels are far dirtier than nuclear power, the shift almost certainly added to air pollution and thus to respiratory ailments, the authors add, although they did not try to quantify this effect.
面對高電價，很多人因此選擇了關掉電熱器。根據政府調查，2012年，一些地區的家庭平均用電量下降了8%。跌幅最大的是東京等地區，那裡的電價上漲了三分之一以上。作者聲稱，從2011到2014年期間有額外的1280人死於冬季過多暴露在寒冷中。作者還補充說，鑑於化石燃料比核能要更「髒」，這種向使用更多化石燃料的轉變幾乎可以肯定會加劇空氣汙染，進而加劇呼吸系統疾病，儘管他們並未試圖量化這種影響。
The paper is part of a reassessment of Japan’s response to the world’s worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl in 1986. At least 2,000 people died because of the Fukushima evacuation, some in the chaos immediately after the accident, and more from secondary health problems such as stress, suicide and interrupted medical care. Deaths from exposure to radiation, in contrast, are in the single digits. Most estimates assume even the long-term impact will be small. The precautionary principle—taking dramatic action to prevent a worst-case scenario—resulted in poor policymaking in this instance, concludes Matthew Neidell of Columbia University, one of the paper’s authors. 「Our estimated increase in mortality from higher electricity prices significantly outweighs the mortality from the accident itself.」
該論文是對日本應對福島核事故情況進行重新評估的一部分，福島核事故是自1986年車諾比事故以來最嚴重的核災難。至少有2000人死於福島核事故後的疏散過程。一些人在事故帶來的混亂中喪生，還有更多人死於繼發性健康問題，例如壓力、自殺以及醫療中斷。與之相比，因遭到輻射而導致的死亡僅為個位數。該論文作者之一是哥倫比亞大學的馬修·奈德爾。他總結說，這種預防性原則（採取重大行動以防止最壞的情況發生）在這一事故中導致決策不力。「我們估計，高電價造成的死亡人數大大超過了事故本身造成的死亡人數。」
It would have been bizarre if such a dramatic failure had not been followed by a thorough safety review. A second meltdown would have been vastly more damaging than the reactor shutdown, given that the first is estimated to have cost more than $700bn. But whatever the merits of the decision to mothball all reactors, nuclear power remains unpopular in Japan. Most people are opposed to restarting any reactors. Just nine have come back online—and various lawsuits and pressure groups aim to turn them off again. Evacuation orders for towns like Namie have been lifted, yet 35,000 people refuse to return. Even if there is not that much radiation, Japan continues to suffer from the fallout.
對於這樣一次慘痛的失敗，如果人們在事後仍沒有進行徹底的安全檢查，那麼會顯得很奇怪。考慮到第一次核反應堆熔毀帶來的損失預計超過7000億美元，第二次熔毀造成的後果本來會遠超關閉核反應堆造成的損失。但不論關閉所有反應堆這一決定帶來的好處有多少，核電在日本仍然不受歡迎。大多數人反對重啟任何反應堆。只有9個核反應堆重新開始運行，但各種訴訟和壓力集團正致力於將它們再次關停。對於像浪江町這種小鎮的撤離命令已經解除，但仍有35000人拒絕回去。儘管輻射已經所剩無幾，但日本仍在承受核事故帶來的後果。