本文節選自巴曙松教授和高級分析師楊現領博士所著《房地產大轉型的「網際網路+」路徑》一書的英文版《「Internet Plus」 Pathways to the Transformation of China’s Property Sector》的序言，該書由YUE Feng（嶽峰）、YU Junying（餘俊英）、 ZHU Hanxiong（朱漢雄）翻譯，已於2016年9月由Springer出版發行。該書破解國際知名房地產電商企業生存與發展之道，權威分析移動網際網路時代的房地產行業大轉型，為中國「網際網路+房地產」企業尋找下一個風口。本文系該書英文版與中文版序言，敬請閱讀。
文/巴曙松；英文版譯者/嶽峰、餘俊英、朱漢雄
The Forthcoming 「Golden Age」 Of the Internet and the Existing Home Market
Here I am now in Hong Kong, looking out of my window at a forest of high-rises.
While looking at this city with a mature real estate market and contemplating the development of China’s property sector, I wonder what changes are burgeoning as various sectors of the Chinese economy are using 「Internet plus」 strategy to explore new frontiers.
China’s property market is undergoing a dramatic shake-up. A fundamental change is that a market dominated by new homes is giving way to a market of existing homes. In this age of mobile Internet, China’s industrial transformation, which used to feature standardized products, is now characterized by non-standardized services. Mobile Internet is germinating changes in the property sector, although a drastic transformation has not yet started.
Under these circumstances, a shake-up in the property market is duly expected, with the old order receding and the new order being established. This book is my effort to visualize the future in China’s property market. The views expressed in it are my own and do not represent those of any organization.
I. Crossover Fusion of the Internet and Property Sector
The advent of this new age is marked by these three events:
First, a market dominated by new homes is giving way to a market of existing homes, which is the fundamental change.
Second, China’s mobile internet users have outnumbered PC users. This means the Internet’s influence over the traditional industries is no longer about standardized products, but non-standardized service. The internet, now providing all sorts of services in real life situations, is no longer simply a virtual world, but part of the real world. Mobile internet is germinating changes in the real estate brokerage industry, although a drastic transformation is yet to be expected.
Third, the new rules of the real estate brokerage industry are established. The boundaries between different business models are blurring. Real estate developers and traditional brokerages are becoming more and more internet-based, internet companies are engaging in brokerage, and media companies are transforming into e-commerce businesses. The formerly different businesses that used to operate within their own territories are now competing severely on the same battlefield.
II. What Does a Booming Market of Existing Homes Mean to Us?
Existing homes are already a dominant presence in the markets of the US, the UK, France and Australia, where the numbers of existing home sales are respectively 9 times, 8.1 times, 1.9 times and 3.5 times those of new home sales. While this ratio is only 0.6 in Japan at large, existing home sales are much more active in Japan’s Capital Region and Kinki Region than the rest of the country, the numbers of which are 3 times and 1.9 times those of new home sales respectively.
In 2013, although the ratio of existing home and new home sales is only 35% in China at large, the former already surpassed the latter in all first-tier cities and a few second-tier cities. According to the statistics of Centaline Home，first tier cities account for 16 % of the total transacted area of existing homes and 39% of the transaction volume.
Although existing homes have not yet dominated the housing market in most Chinese cities, due to a large enough existing housing stock, relatively high homeownership rate and the increasing population mobility, the boom of the existing home market is but inevitable.
What, then, does a booming market of existing homes mean to us?
1. Balance Between Supply and Demand
As real estate development process consists of many complicated steps like land acquisition, design and construction, the cycle of development can be as long as three years or longer. As a result, in a new home market, the supply of homes does not synchronize with demand. When demand elasticity is much greater than supply elasticity, developers at the supply end of the industrial chain has the final say in the market, with consumers and real estate agents at the disadvantaged end. The result is elevated home prices and reduced commissions.
However, in a market dominated by existing homes, supply and demand are both decentralized, with no individual or organization monopolizing the supply. Supply elasticity and demand elasticity are more balanced and synchronized. If not impacted by a macroeconomic cycle or financial business cycle, home prices will not experience any momentous rise or fall. The fluctuation in home prices will be smaller and more constant. Therefore consumers need to be constantly attentive to the ever changing market. In the existing home market, home buyers are mostly owner-occupiers rather than investors, and naturally they will be more concerned about the location, transportation and neighborhood of the property. Houses to them are not just concrete structures — they are homes to live in. That explains the highly complicated and intensive information cluster each housing transaction is. Furthermore, people may opt to rent a home as an alternative to buying one. The demand for information will be even greater given the shorter cycle of house rental and higher frequency of information exchange.
2. The Emergence of Large Matchmaking Platforms
The prerequisite for a trading platform is balanced and decentralized buyers and sellers. As real estate sector is becoming a buying market, developers』 clout is on the decrease as consumer power rises. This will pave the way for trading platforms and e-commerce businesses in the new home market. What’s more, in the existing home market where buyers and sellers are more decentralized than in the new home market, even larger trading platforms will emerge.
There was no trading platform in its true sense in China’s new home market before 2014. The prevalent business model then was media e-commerce businesses, which were in essence media companies offering advertising services. Internet companies were merely developers』 platforms for advertisement.
However, in 2014, with the hesitant housing market, the long-drawn sales cycle and home-buying process and the limited effect of advertisement in traditional media, traditional brokerages found it difficult to expand its customer base. Trading platforms for both new homes and existing homes then heaved into sight. Furthermore, the group-buy deposits these platforms charge guarantee immediate commission payment, which used to be a headache for traditional brokerages, and these platforms thus thrived.
However, no real trading platform is in sight in the existing home market. Media companies offer advertising channels or platforms for real estate agents or brokerages to disseminate their information, but they are not involved in or have much control over transactions. On the other hand, although traditional brokerages participate in transactions, they have not evolved from brokerages to platforms. Given the complexity of the existing home market and the indispensability of agents, trading platforms are bound to switch from solely match-making platforms to platforms with their own brokerage operations, and then the other way round. In the next two or three years, there will emerge one or several huge regional trading platforms for existing homes, which provide information, match buyers and sellers and provide extended services centering around transactions.
Finally, there will be competition between trading platforms for new homes and those for existing homes, because from a consumer’s point of view, new homes and existing homes are not much different, but it remains to be seen which will get the upper hand.
Ba Shusong
June 2015 at Hong Kong
附：《房地產大轉型的「網際網路+」路徑》中文版原書序言——迎接網際網路與存量房的「黃金時代」
窗外的香港，高樓林立。
身處房地產行業高度發達的香港，回望中國整個房地產市場的發展，在「網際網路+」成為不同產業轉型發展的重要突破方向之一時，房地產行業將出現哪些顯著的趨勢性變化？
從現狀看，中國的房地產市場正在發生激烈的變化與重組。根據一系列數據分析，新房市場主導的階段邁入二手房市場趨勢性上升的存量房時代，這是一個基礎性變化。從網際網路角度看，移動時代的來臨意味著網際網路對傳統行業的改造從標準化商品過渡到非標準化服務，移動網際網路對房地產服務的改造則剛剛開始，真正的裂變尚未出現。在這兩個趨勢的疊加下，我們預計會看到房地產市場遊戲規則的重建，表現為舊秩序的逐步退場和新秩序的曙光初現。那麼，我們將面臨一個什麼樣的未來？這是我們試圖在本書中探討的主題。當然，本書中的所有觀點僅僅代表作者個人作為一個研究人員的看法，不代表任何機構的意見和看法。
一、網際網路改變房地產的時代已經來臨
這個全新時代的來臨是基於三個標誌性事件：
其一，中國由新房市場主導的階段邁入二手房市場趨勢性上升的存量房時代，這是一個基礎性變化。
其二，中國移動網際網路用戶超過PC用戶，移動互聯時代的來臨意味著網際網路對傳統行業的改造從標準化商品過渡到非標準化服務，網際網路從虛擬世界進入現實世界，開始提供線下真實生活場景中的各種服務。在這個大趨勢之下，移動網際網路對房地產服務的改造則剛剛開始，真正的裂變尚未出現。
其三，行業規則的重建。2014年以來，我們已經看到不同商業模型之間的界限開始變得模糊，涇渭分明的鴻溝不復存在，房地產開發企業開始向網際網路轉型，傳統經紀公司也越來越網際網路化，網際網路公司越來越經紀公司化，媒體公司越來越電商化，彼此之間相互滲透，原本定位不同、差異明顯的玩家突然出現在同一個戰壕中，競爭更加激烈。
二、存量房時代的來臨意味著什麼？
從國際對比來看，美國、英國、法國、澳大利亞已經是二手房主導的市場，這四個國家二手房成交分別是新房成交的9倍、8.1倍、1.9倍、3.5倍。儘管日本二手房只有新房的0.6倍，但首都圈和近畿圈的二手房市場活躍度遠遠高出全國水平，分別達3倍和1.9倍。
再看中國，2013年，儘管全國層面二手房與新房成交佔比只有35%左右，但是一線城市和個別二線城市二手房已經超過新房。從二手房市場集中度來看，據測算，2013年中國二手房成交面積的16%集中在一線城市，成交金額的39%集中在一線城市。
儘管目前大部分城市二手房成交尚未處於主導，但是考慮到已經足夠龐大的商品房存量、較高的城鎮家庭住房自有率，以及人口流動趨勢的加速，二手房市場的全面爆發是大勢所趨。
那麼，存量房時代的來臨意味著什麼呢？
1、市場供需雙方的力量更加均衡
在新房主導市場供給的階段，由於拿地、設計、施工等諸多環節涉及的周期較長，往往需要3年甚至更久，因此，新房供給往往滯後於需求的變化，無法與需求同步調整，導致需求彈性遠遠大於供給彈性，導致供給端的開發商在產業鏈上擁有絕對的話語權。一個自然結果是消費者和代理商處於弱勢，前者表現為房價上漲，後者表現為代理費率下降。
然而，在二手房主導市場供給的階段，供給與需求都十分分散，沒有誰可以壟斷供應，因此，供給彈性與需求彈性將更為一致。在這種情況下，如果不出現大的宏觀周期和金融周期的衝擊，房價就很難出現趨勢性上漲或下跌，房價的調整將更加頻繁，更加短期，但波幅更小且雙向波動。也正是基於此，消費者更需要關注頻繁變化的市場信息。此外，存量房時代的住房需求多以自住為主，且集中在老舊中心城區，基於自住的需求必然會更加關注房屋地理信息、通勤信息和鄰裡信息，這時房子是一個家，不是鋼筋水泥，不是投資品，所以房屋交易的信息密集性和複雜屬性才會由此產生。而且，自住並不一定直接購買，租房和買房之間的替代性在這個階段也才會產生。考慮到租房周期更短，信息交互的次數更多，對信息需求進一步上升。
2、大型交易撮合平臺的誕生是必然結果
交易平臺的誕生必須具備的前提條件就是交易雙方力量相對均衡且足夠分散。隨著新房市場逐步過渡到買方市場，開發商的力量趨弱，消費者力量趨強，這為新房交易平臺的產生提供了條件，這也是許多新房電商平臺崛起的大背景。在存量房市場，基於買賣雙方更加分散的特點，則會出現更大的交易平臺。
第一，在新房市場，2014年之前，並未出現真正意義上的交易平臺，當時，媒體電商是普遍形式，其核心屬性是媒體，貨幣化模式是廣告，網際網路公司不過是開發商的廣告平臺。
然而，在2014年，由於市場相對低迷，去化周期和購房周期延長，傳統的代理公司無法有效拓客，傳統的媒體廣告效果也十分有限，自然來客越來越少。在這種市場情況下，才催生了一、二手聯動的渠道整合平臺，同時由於團購費的機制創新解決了傳統代理無法解決的快速結傭問題，這些平臺迅速增長。
第二，在二手房市場，目前同樣沒有出現真正的交易平臺，PC時代的媒體公司為二手房公司或經紀人提供埠服務，但仍未真正切入交易，或者說對交易的掌控力遠遠不夠。傳統中介公司雖然參與交易，但是仍然沒有完成從公司向平臺的轉換。考慮到二手房市場的複雜性和經紀人不可或缺這一特點，大致判斷平臺的崛起必然是一個從輕到重，再從重到輕的雙重演變過程。可以預計，未來2～3年一定會出現一個或幾個大型的區域性二手房交易平臺，它不僅提供信息、撮合交易，而且還會提供以交易為中心的延伸服務等。
最後，簡單推測，未來幾年的市場中將會有一場新房交易平臺與二手房交易平臺的競爭，因為站在消費者角度看，房子是沒有新舊之分的，至於未來到底是新房平臺打敗二手房平臺，還是二手房平臺打敗新房平臺，需要進一步觀察。
巴曙松
2015年6月於香港
（完）
（本文為巴曙松教授於2015年6月為《房地產大轉型的「網際網路+」路徑》一書所作序言，該書英文版《"Internet Plus" Pathways to the Transformation of China's Property Sector》已於2016年9月由Springer出版發行，中文版已於2015年7月由廈門大學出版社出版發行。本文觀點僅代表作者作為一位研究人員個人的看法，不代表任何機構的意見和看法）
本篇編輯：熊宗均
《房地產大轉型的「網際網路+」路徑》一書的英文版《"Internet Plus" Pathways to the Transformation of China's Property Sector》，已於2016年9月由Springer出版發行，購書請點擊以下連結：
亞馬遜：https://www.amazon.cn/Pathways-to-the-Transformation-of-China-s-Property-Sector-Ba-Shusong/dp/9811016984/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1474221600&sr=8-1&keywords=「Internet+Plus」+Pathways+to+the+Transformation+of+China’s+Property+Sector
《房地產大轉型的「網際網路+」路徑》：2015年7月由廈門大學出版社出版發行。購書請點擊以下連結：
當當網：http://search.dangdang.com/?key=%A1%B6%B7%BF%B5%D8%B2%FA%B4%F3%D7%AA%D0%CD%B5%C4%A1%B0%BB%A5%C1%AA%CD%F8%2B%A1%B1%C2%B7%BE%B6%A1%B7&act=input
亞馬遜：
https://www.amazon.cn/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?__mk_zh_CN=%E4%BA%9A%E9%A9%AC%E9%80%8A%E7%BD%91%E7%AB%99&url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=%E3%80%8A%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E4%BA%A7%E5%A4%A7%E8%BD%AC%E5%9E%8B%E7%9A%84%E2%80%9C%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%2B%E2%80%9D%E8%B7%AF%E5%BE%84%E3%80%8B
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