外刊|The Economist
詞數|650
Heatwaves 熱浪
Climate change is already killing people. Countries must learn to adapt to extreme heat
氣候變化已經導致人類死亡，各國必須學會適應極端高溫
In recent days heatwaves have turned swathes of America and Europe into furnaces. Despite the accompanying blast of headlines, the implications of such extreme heat are often overlooked or underplayed. Spectacular images of hurricanes or floods grab attention more readily, yet heatwaves can cause more deaths. Heat is one of climate change’s deadliest manifestations. Sometimes its impact is unmistakable—a heatwave in Europe in 2003 is estimated to have claimed 70,000 lives. More often, though, heatwaves are treated like the two in the Netherlands in 2018. In just over three weeks, around 300 more people died than would normally be expected at that time of year. This was dismissed as a 「minor rise」 by officials. But had those people died in a flood, it would have been front-page news.
最近幾天，熱浪已經把美國和歐洲的大片地區變成了熔爐。儘管伴隨著爆炸性的新聞標題，這種極端高溫的影響往往被忽視或低估。颶風或洪水的壯觀圖像更容易吸引人們的注意力，然而熱浪可以造成更多的死亡。高溫是氣候變化最致命的表現之一。有時其影響是顯而易見的——據估計，2003年歐洲的熱浪奪去了7萬人的生命。然而，更常見的情況是，熱浪就像2018年荷蘭發生的那兩次一樣。僅僅三周多一點的時間，就有大約300多人死亡，超過了每年這個時候的正常預期。這被官員們不以為意，只是稱其為「小幅上升」。但是那些人若是死於洪水的話，會成為頭條新聞的。
The havoc caused by extreme heat does not get the attention it merits for several reasons. The deaths tend to be more widely dispersed and do not involve the devastation of property as do the ravages of wind and water. Moreover, deaths are not usually directly attributable to heatstroke. Soaring temperatures just turn pre-existing conditions such as heart problems or lung disease lethal.
高溫造成的破壞沒有引起人們的注意，有幾個原因。死亡時間往往是分散的，不像風和水那樣對財產造成破壞。此外，死亡通常不能直接歸因於中暑。急劇上升的體溫正在使先前存在的疾病，如心臟病或肺病變得致命。
Heatwaves will inevitably attract more attention as they become more frequent. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, not only will temperatures rise overall but extremes of heat will occur more frequently (see Science section). Britain’s Met Office calculates that by the 2040s European summers as hot as that of 2003 could be commonplace, regardless of how fast emissions are reduced. Urbanisation intensifies the risk to health: cities are hotter places than the surrounding countryside, and more people are moving into them.
隨著熱浪發生得越來越頻繁，它將不可避免地吸引更多的關注。隨著溫室氣體在大氣層中不斷累積，不僅氣溫會全面上升，而且極端高溫將發生得更頻繁(見《科學》一節)。根據英國氣象局的計算，到21世紀40年代，無論減排速度有多快，像2003年那樣炎熱的歐洲夏季都會變得司空見慣。城市化加劇了健康風險: 城市比周圍的農村更熱，更多的人搬進城市。
The good news is that most fatalities are avoidable, if three sets of measures are put in place. First, people must be made aware that extreme heat can kill and warning systems established. Heatwaves can be predicted with reasonable accuracy,which means warnings can be given in advance advising people to stay indoors, seek cool areas and drink plenty of water. Smart use of social media can help. In 2017 a campaign on Facebook warning of the dangers of a heatwave in Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital, reached 3.9m people, nearly half the city’s population.
好消息是，如果採取三套措施，大多數死亡事故都是可以避免的。首先，必須讓人們意識到極端高溫會致人死亡，並建立預警系統。熱浪可以以合理的精確度預測，這意味著可以提前發出警告，建議人們呆在室內，尋找涼爽的地方，多喝水。聰明地使用社交媒體會有所幫助。2017年，在 Facebook 上發起了一項活動，警告孟加拉國首都達卡將會遭受熱浪襲擊的危險，活動人數達到了390萬，接近該市人口的一半。
Second, cool shaded areas and fresh water should be made available. In poor places, air-conditioned community centres and schools can be kept open permanently (steamy nights that provide no relief from scorching days can also kill). In Cape Town, spray parks have been installed to help people cool down. Third, new buildings must be designed to be resilient to the threat of extreme heat and existing ones adapted. White walls, roofs or tarpaulins, and extra vegetation in cities, all of which help prevent heat from building up, can be provided fairly cheaply. A programme to install 「cool roofs」 and insulation in Philadelphia reduced maximum indoor temperatures by 1.3˚C.
第二，提供陰涼的地方和清水。在貧困地區，有空調的社區中心和學校可以永久開放(悶熱的夜晚不能緩解炎熱的白天也可以殺人)。在開普敦，已經安裝了噴霧公園來幫助人們降溫。第三，新建築的設計必須能夠抵禦極端高溫的威脅，現有建築也必須適應這種問題。城市中的白牆、屋頂或防水布，以及額外的植被，所有這些，都有助於防止熱量積聚，這些都可以以相當便宜的價格提供。一項在費城安裝「降溫屋頂」和隔熱裝置的計劃將室內最高溫度降低了1.3攝氏度。
It is a cruel irony that, as with other effects of climate change, the places that are hardest hit by heatwaves can least afford to adapt. In poor countries, where climates are often hotter and more humid, public-health systems are weaker
這是一個殘酷的諷刺，正如氣候變化的其他影響一樣，那些受熱浪襲擊最嚴重的地方最難以適應氣候變化。在氣候更熱、更潮溼的貧窮國家，公共衛生系統更加薄弱
and preoccupied with other threats. Often, adaptation to extreme heat is done by charities if it is done at all. Particular attention should be paid to reaching both remote areas and densely populated urban ones, including slums where small dwellings with tin roofs packed together worsen the danger that uncomfortably high temperatures will become lethal.
還有其他的威脅。通常情況下，對極端高溫的適應是由慈善機構完成的。應特別注意深入偏遠地區和人口密集的城市地區，包括貧民窟，在那裡，鐵皮屋頂的小房子擠在一起，使不舒服的高溫變成致命的危險更加嚴重。
Adaptation is not an alternative to cutting emissions; both are necessary. But even if net emissions are reduced to zero this century, the persistence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means that heatwaves will continue to get worse for decades to come. As the mercury rises, governments in rich and poor countries alike must do more to protect their populations from this very real and quietly deadly aspect of climate change.
適應氣候變化不是減排的替代選擇，兩者都是必要的。但是，即使淨排放量在本世紀減少到零，大氣中溫室氣體的持續存在，意味著熱浪在未來幾十年將繼續惡化。隨著汞含量的上升，富裕國家和貧窮國家的政府都必須採取更多措施，保護本國人民免受氣候變化這一真切存在且悄無聲息的致命影響。
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