據分析公司Wood Mackenzie稱，到2030年，日本將在風能和太陽能發電領域投資逾1000億美元。
在其最新的《戰略能源計劃》中，該國的目標是22%-24%的電力來自可再生能源。然而，這一新的投資率將推動可再生能源發電量達到27%。
2019年，該國19％的電力來自可再生能源，其中8％來自風能和太陽能。
Wood Mackenzie預計太陽能和風能的發電成本將下降30％以上。儘管如此，研究主管亞歷克斯·惠特沃思（Alex Whitworth）認為，到2030年以後，煤炭仍將是該國最便宜的發電方式。
他表示：「未來十年將是一個平衡的過程，在保持終端用戶電價穩定的同時，管理可再生能源的增長，以實現環境和能源安全目標。」
「幸運的是，由於冠狀病毒大流行和油價暴跌，今年日本的電力供應成本下降了15％以上。這對日本來說是一個福音，可以幫助日本在2030年之前將風能和太陽能在發電中所佔的份額提高一倍以上，達到18%，同時不會給消費者的電費帳單帶來上行壓力。」
同時，日本還將投資其氫能產業，今年氫能產業將超過400萬噸。
Wood Mackenzie表示，儘管許多國家計劃使用氫來脫碳，但日本主要使用氫來去除排放物中的硫和雜質。近90%的氫氣是由煉油廠生產的，造成大量排放。。
伍德·麥肯齊研究總監Prakash Sharma說：「日本的氫燃料電池汽車目標似乎難以在時間表內實現。成本是最大的挑戰，因為目前綠色氫的成本是化石燃料氫的2-4倍。
「儘管如此，將重點放在氫燃料的採用是完全合理的，因為日本在減少非能源碳排放方面沒有多少其他選擇。」
「日本的目標是到2030年將其綠色氫氣價格降低至3美元/千克。這將要求可再生電力的平準化成本降至50美元/兆瓦時以下，與目前對國內太陽能和風電廠的預測相比，還要再降低37％。因此，我們希望日本採取所有選擇來尋找清潔氫能，包括進口綠色和藍色氫氣。」
在Covid-19大流行期間的低電力需求
近幾個月來，日本在Covid-19大流行期間利用了能源需求減少的優勢。GlobalData分析師發現，日本將放棄燃煤發電，目前日本約有三分之一的電力來自燃煤發電。
GlobalData預計，到2030年，煤炭將佔該國總發電量的26％。日本政府將淘汰所有低效率的燃煤電廠，只留下10%的現有電廠來生產佔全國四分之一以上的能源。在政府的政策受到批評後，日本也承諾停止支持外國煤炭項目。
在2011年福島核事故發生後，日本還推動停止了國內所有的核能發電。
惠特沃思說：「就在最近宣布加速淘汰燃煤發電之前，日本已經有一條明確的道路實現其2030年可再生能源發電目標。需求預期的降低與可再生能源成本的下降同步，加速了日本對化石燃料的依賴。」
另外，東京電力公司（TEPCO）宣布了計劃在2035年之前向海上風電和水力發電領域投資至多184億美元（20億日元）。
原文閱讀：
Japan will invest more than $100bn in wind and solar generation before 2030, according to analyst firm Wood Mackenzie.
In its most recent Strategic Energy Plan, the country aimed to generate 22%-24% of its electricity from renewable sources. However, this new rate of investment would push its renewable generation to 27%.
In 2019, the country generated 19% of its power from renewable sources, with 8% coming from wind and solar.
Wood Mackenzie expects generation costs for solar and wind to fall by over 30%. Despite this, research director Alex Whitworth believes coal will still be the cheapest method of power generation available to the country until beyond 2030.
He said: 「The next decade will be a balancing act to manage the growth of renewables to reach environmental and energy security goals while keeping end-user power tariffs stable.
「Fortunately, power supply costs in Japan have dropped by over 15% this year due to the coronavirus pandemic and oil price crash. This is a boon for Japan and should help the country more than double the share of wind and solar in the generation mix to 18% by 2030, without putting upward pressure on consumer power bills.」
Japan moves to decarbonise its hydrogen sources
At the same time, Japan will also invest in its hydrogen industry, which will produce more than four million tons this year.
While many countries plan to use hydrogen to decarbonise, Wood Mackenzie says that Japan mainly uses hydrogen for removing sulphur and impurities from emissions. Almost 90% of the hydrogen is produced in refineries, causing significant emissions.
Wood Mackenzie research director Prakash Sharma said: 「Japan’s hydrogen fuel cell vehicle targets seem challenging to achieve in the timeframe. Cost is the biggest challenge, because green hydrogen currently costs 2-4 times more than fossil-fuel hydrogen.
「The focus on hydrogen adoption makes perfect sense though, because Japan has very few other options to reduce its non-power carbon emissions.」
「Japan aims to lower its green hydrogen price to $3/kg by 2030. This would require the levelised cost of renewable electricity to fall under $50/MWh, an additional 37% reduction from the current forecast for domestic solar and wind plants. As a result, we expect Japan to pursue all options to procure clean hydrogen, including import of green and blue hydrogen.」
Making use of low power demand during the Covid-19 pandemic
In recent months, Japan has moved to take advantage of a decreased energy demand during the Covid-19 pandemic. GlobalData analysts found that the country will move away from coal-based generation, which currently powers approximately one-third of all Japanese power.
By 2030, GlobalData expects coal to generate a 26% share of the country’s power. The Japanese Government will retire all low-efficiency coal plants, leaving only 10% of its existing plants to generate more than a quarter of the country’s energy. Japan has also pledged to stop supporting foreign coal projects after criticism of the government’s policy.
Japan has also pushed to end all nuclear generation in the country following the Fukushima disaster in 2011.
Whitworth said: 「Even before recent announcements looking to accelerate retirements of coal power, Japan had a clear pathway to meet its 2030 renewable power target. Lower demand expectations are now aligning with falling renewables costs to accelerate Japan’s shift away from fossil fuels.」
Separately, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) has announced plans to invest up to $18.4bn (JPY2tn) in offshore wind and hydroelectric power before 2035.