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Statistical projection: Earth likely to warm over 2 degrees C this century
專家預測：本世紀末地球溫度將上升2℃
New statistical projections by researchers at the University of Washington (UW) show a 90 percent chance that temperatures will increase this century by 2.0 to 4.9 degrees Celsius.
近日，華盛頓大學研究人員的最新研究成果發現，全球溫度有90%的概率在本世紀末將進一步上升， 上升幅度達2℃到4.9℃。
Instead of working on scenarios for future carbon emissions, ranging from "business-as-usual" emissions from growing economies to serious worldwide efforts to transition away from fossil fuels, the new study focuses on three quantities that underpin future emissions: total world population, gross domestic product per person and the amount of carbon emitted for each dollar of economic activity, known as carbon intensity.
不同於以往的從影響每年工業排放到全球範圍內替代化石燃料的過渡等未來場景來估算碳排量的變化，新的研究方法主要從三個對碳排量的有影響作用的量化指標著手：全球總人口.、人均GDP和創造1美元經濟效益所產生的碳排放量，簡稱為碳排放強度。
Using statistical projections for each of these three quantities based on 50 years of past data in countries around the world, the study published this week in Nature Climate Change finds a median value of 3.2 degrees Celsius warming by 2100.
對過去50年各國數據進行分析，得出以上三個指標的變化趨勢，研究成果發表在上周的《自然氣候變化》期刊上，論文中稱預計到2100年，全球氣溫平均上漲3.2℃。
The researchers, including lead author Adrian Raftery, a professor of statistics and sociology, and co-author Dargan Frierson, an associate professor of atmospheric sciences, have recognized that what matters more is the carbon intensity, the amount of carbon emissions produced for each dollar of economic activity. That value has dropped over years as countries boost efficiency and enact standards to reduce carbon emissions.
論文的第一作者Adrian Raftery 是一位統計學和社會學教授以及第二作者Dargan Frierson,一位氣候科學教授，他們共同認為：影響氣候變暖最關鍵的因素是碳排放強度，即創造1美元經濟效益所排放的碳含量，在過去的幾個世紀裡，由於人類生產效率的提高和減少碳排放量的努力，這個指標已經連續多年出現下降。
However, how quickly that value drops in future decades will be crucial for determining future warming. And warming of the planet by 2 degrees Celsius is often seen as a "tipping point" that people should try to avoid by limiting greenhouse gas emissions.
然而，這個指標在接下來數十年的下降快慢對於未來氣候變暖至關重要，一直以來，地球溫度上升2℃一直被視為「警戒線」，人類應該通過努力減少溫室氣體排放來避免這一可怕後果的發生。
The new findings indicate that there is only a 5 percent chance that Earth will warm 2 degrees or less by the end of this century; and a mere 1 percent chance that warming could be at or below 1.5 degrees, which is the target set by the 2016Paris Agreement on climate change.
新的研究結果表明，地球氣溫升高2℃或者更少的機率只有5%,而上升1.5℃以下的概率只有1%，這也是在2016的《巴黎協定》裡關於全球變暖所制定的目標。
In their work, the researchers initially expected to find that higher populations would increase the projections for global warming. Instead, they were surprised to learn that population has a fairly small impact, because most of the population increase will be in Africa, which uses few fossil fuels.
另外，在研究初期，科學家原本認為更多的人口將加劇氣候變暖，但是令人驚奇的是，人口對於氣候變暖的影響十分有限，因為目前人口增長主要來自化石燃料使用較少的非洲地區。
來源:環球時報