親愛的觀眾朋友大家好，今天是2016年2月19日，星期五，歡迎大家收聽今天的財經早餐。
Hello, ladies and gentlemen! Today is Friday, February 19th, 2016. Welcome to today's Femorning.
1、統計局數據顯示，中國1月CPI同比增長1.8%，較去年12月1.6%的增速回升；PPI同比下降5.3%，為連續47個月下滑。國家統計局城市司高級統計師餘秋梅解讀稱，1月CPI同比漲幅擴大，主要原因是豬肉、鮮菜、飛機票、旅行社收費價格同比漲幅較大。
Data from the Bureau of Statistics shows that China's January CPI rose 1.8%, a 1.6% growth compared to that of in December last year. PPI fell 5.3%, for a consecutive 47 month decline. Yu Qiumei Urban Senior Statistician in the National Bureau of Statistics Department, interpreted that the CPI rose to expand in January which was mainly due to the large price rising in pork, fresh vegetables, airline tickets and travel agencies .
2、滙豐大中華區首席經濟學家屈宏斌認為，1月CPI高於上月但略低於市場預期。春節假期臨近推高市場需求，加之寒冷天氣令食品價格暫時走高是CPI回升主因。非食品通脹在服務價格上漲帶動下小幅上升，但仍處低位。PPI降幅收窄，但主要源自低基數。通縮壓力難掩，儘快推出一攬子調控措施加大寬鬆力度，帶動需求恢復是當務之急。
Chief economist Qu Hongbin in Hongkong Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) of Greater China believes that the CPI in January is higher than last month but slightly lower than market expectations. The approaching Chinese New Year holiday contributed to an increase in market demand, combined with the cold weather making food prices temporarily higher, the main reasons for the rise in CPI. Non-food inflation rises were slightly driven by the rise of service prices, but were still quite low. PPI decline is narrowing, but mainly from a low base. Deflationary pressures are hard to conceal, an introduction for a package of measures to increase the regulation of liberal efforts so as to stimulate demand recovery, is a priority.
3、澳新銀行大中華區首席經濟學家劉利剛表示，CPI將在3月開始逐步回落。高頻數據顯示，2月初食品價格持續上升，這將帶動本月的CPI。但是，由於季節因素將逐漸消失，CPI上升也將是暫時的。中國今年將持續面臨較大的通縮風險。中國資本流出壓力持續。央行需要進一步放鬆貨幣政策，預計一季度央行將降準50個基點。
Chief economist Liu Ligang in Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) of Greater China expressed that, CPI will gradually decline in the beginning of March. High frequency data shows that food prices will continue to rise in early February, which will boost CPI this month. However, it will gradually disappear due to seasonal factors, so the CPI rise will be a temporary one. China will continue to face a greater risk of deflation this year. China capital outflow pressure will continue. The central bank needs to further relax monetary policy. The central bank is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points in the first quarter.
4、統計局稱，2001年以來按照統計制度要求，我國CPI每五年進行一次基期輪換，2016年1月開始使用2015年作為新一輪的對比基期。經測算，本輪基期輪換對CPI環比數據基本無影響，對同比數據影響較小，約為0.08個百分點。
Bureau of Statistics said in accordance with the requirements of the statistical system starting form 2001, China's CPI will carry out the base rotation every five years. The year of 2015 will be used as a new round for comparative base periods at the beginning of January in 2016. After calculation, the current round of base rotation has had almost no impact on CPI ring data and less impact on annual data which stands at about 0.08 percentage points.
5、高盛首席中國經濟學家宋宇預計，2016年中國經濟增速為6.4%，工資、就業和消費可能受衝擊。但他同時表示，中國經濟的「方向」沒問題，整體上處於可控範圍內。政策制定者擁有充足的空間來支持經濟增長，也可以釋放新的增長動力。
Chief economist Yu Song in Goldman Sachs forecasts China's economic growth in 2016 will be 6.4%. The wages, employment and consumption may be affected by the impact. But he also said that China's economic "direction" doesn’t have problems; on the whole, it is in the controllable range. Policy makers have plenty of room to support economic growth and also can release a new growth impetus.
6、交行首席經濟學家連平表示，由於春節前後，央行動用了多種手段向市場注入流動性，市場流動性相對較為充裕，因此，當前降準的概率較小。1月、2月市場的流動性波動較大，預計3月將歸於相對比較平穩的狀態，如果3月外匯佔款仍然下降的較快，將大大增加降準的概率，預計3月之後將成為今年首次降準的時間窗口。
Lian Ping, Chief economist in the Bank of Communications said that the central bank used various means to inject liquidity into the market around the Spring Festival, so the market liquidity is relatively abundant. Therefore, the current probability of lowering the reserve requirement ratio is small. There will be larger liquidity fluctuations in the January and February market. It is expected March will be vested in a relatively stable state. If the decline in foreign exchange is still faster in March, the probability of lowering the reserve requirement ratio will be greatly increased. It is expected that the time window for lowering the reserve requirement ratio will be after March for the first time of this year .
7、央行18日以利率招標方式開展了800億7天逆回購，中標利率維穩於2.25%。專家指出，下周將進入節後逆回購到期量高峰，到期量為8700億，為節後最高的一周。預計央行將繼續在公開市場釋放短期流動性，逆回購操作量有望逐步加碼，加之節後資金回流，料資金價格相對平穩。
The central bank operated a seven-day 80 billion reverse repos by means of interest rate tender. The repo rates stabilized at 2.25%. Experts pointed out that the expiration of reverse repos will enter into the post-holiday peak. The amount due will be 870 billion becoming the highest after the Festival week. It is expected that the central bank will continue to release short-term liquidity in the open market. The amount of reverse repos operations is expected to gradually become overweight with the fund inflow after the holiday, the price of material funds will be relatively stable.
8、德國商業銀行周浩認為，中國需要極度寬鬆的政策去幫助高負債行業去槓桿，預計央行除了降息之外，全年還會有多次降準來應對強勁的資本外流。需關注未來數月通脹走勢，尤其在1月份新增貸款猛增之後。
Zhou Hao from Commerzbank believes that China needs an extremely loose policy to help leverage high debt industries. The central bank is expected to cut interest rates and lower the reserve requirement ratio many times in order to cope with the strong capital outflows. China will also need to pay attention on the inflation trend for the coming months, particularly after a surge in new loans in January.
9、據路透社消息，中國央行周四就中期借貸便利（MLF）操作向部分銀行詢量。本次詢量還下調了MLF利率，其中六個月期降至2.85%，一年期降至3.00%。民生固收認為，央行現在通過利率走廊體系來調控利率，降準降息將不再是央行寬鬆的主要信號。
According to Reuters, on Thursday, China's central bank consulted with some banks for facilitating medium-term lending (MLF) operations. It also lowered the MLF interest rates this time, including a six-month period drop to 2.85%, a one-year period decline to 3.00%. Minsheng solid considers that the central bank regulates interest rates through interest rate corridor systems, reserve requirement ratio lowering and rate cuts will no longer be the main signal for loose policy of the central bank .
10、中金公司認為，今年基建投資的力度不會減少。如果將一季度的專項建設基金規模簡單年化，全年總額將達到1.6萬億。從1月銀行信貸超預期投放以及近期的政策動向來看，今年財政寬鬆的力度將進一步加大，專項建設基金投放、地方債務置換與新增規模將顯著增加，PPP項目將加速推進。預計今年基建訂單將好於去年，基建投資增速有望維持在15%以上。
China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that the intensity of investment in infrastructure will not be reduced this year. If the size of the fund in special construction is simple annualized in the first quarter of this year, the total amount for the whole year will reach 1.6 trillion. In view of the bank credit over release in January and recent policy developments, the fiscal easing efforts will increase further this year. The significant increase of the issuing of special construction funds, the exchange of local debt and the newly increased scale, the Public Private Partnership projects will all be accelerated. Infrastructure orders in this year are expected to be better than last year, capital investment growth is expected to remain above 15%.
11、國泰君安首席宏觀分析師任澤平稱，這波反彈是第二波調整完成後的一次修復行情，別漲著漲著又想多了。熊市的反彈會一波比一波弱，最終縮量縮出一個大跌。全年休養生息。至於兩會後怎麼走，觀察匯率、貨幣政策、改革、全球市場等。
Ren Zepin, the Chief macroeconomic analyst of Guotai Junan Securities analyzed that this wave rally is a repair after the completion of the second wave of stock market adjustments. Do not to be so greedy when it keeps rising. A bear market rally will be weaker wave after wave, and ultimately a big plummet will result from the reduced shrinkage. We need to have a annual recuperation. As for how to go after the two sessions, the exchange rate, monetary policy, reform of the global market are all needed to be observed.
12、財政部副部長劉昆表示，要保持經濟運行在合理區間，穩健貨幣政策靈活適度，積極財政政策加大力度，減稅和赤字政策並舉已勢成必然。財政將完善國有金融資本管理制度，支持推進國有金融機構改革。建立健全促進企業兼併重組、股權置換等活動的資本市場體系，推進股債結合投融資方式的發展。財政也將積極參與並支持金融領域的開放。
Deputy Finance Minister Liu Kun said, prudent moderately flexible monetary policy increased the intensified proactive fiscal policy; tax cuts and deficit policies are all becoming the inevitable trend so as to keep the economy running at a reasonable range. Government finances will improve the financial management system of state-owned financial capital, support the advancement of the state-owned financial institutions, establish and improve the promotion of corporate mergers and acquisitions, stock exchange and other activities of the capital market system and promote the combination of stock and bond investment and financing methods. Finances will also actively participate in and support liberalization of the financial sector.
13、經濟參考報從多渠道獲悉，作為財稅改革中稅制改革的重要內容之一，消費稅未來或改為中央和地方共享稅。其中，劃歸中央收入的稅目仍然由國稅部門徵收，而劃歸地方收入的稅目則改為由地稅部門徵收。
Economic Information Daily learned from multiple sources, as one of the important elements in the tax reform among the fiscal reforms, consumption tax may be changed to the central and local shared taxes. Of which, tax items under the central income are still levied by the tax department and those under local income tax items will be collected by the local taxation departments.
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