作者：鮑伯-凱夫（Bob Keefe）
首發於光明觀察，轉載請註明譯者及出處；本譯文僅供參考，引用請查對原文。
（華盛頓）2004年的美國總統大選不同於以前的歷次大選，其原因在於網際網路。在這次大選中，我們第一次有了「面對面（Meetup）」、「前進（MoveOn）」、「向右轉走（Right March）」、 「博客（Bloggers）」、「電子投票（E-Voting）」和政治性的「垃圾郵件（Spam）」。暫且不論是好是壞，還是不好不壞，事實正在證明，網際網路在2004年的總統大選進程中扮演著一位主角。
網際網路因籌款成功而名聲大振。佛蒙特州前州長霍華德-迪安（Howard Dean）競選總統雖然命運不佳，但也證明網上募集到的許多小筆捐款合起來就是一筆大大的競選資金。他通過努力籌款超過5,000萬美元，而這筆資金大部分來自網際網路。其競選班子引領風氣之先的技巧被別人的競選活動成功地「拷貝」，包括麻薩諸塞州參議員約翰-克裡（John Kerry）。到6月1日，克裡在網際網路上籌到了5,700萬美元。在此期間，網際網路使克裡籌得的資金比喬治-布希（George W. Bush）總統的籌款「機器」更多。
網際網路正在為競選提供一種與支持者即時溝通的多媒體渠道。布希搞競選擁有電子信箱地址超過600萬個，而且是經常使用。他搞競選先是預映商業廣告，再通過電子郵件程序展開口頭競選。他搞競選還募集資金和志願者，但通過網際網路主要是鞏固其選民陣營。
網際網路正在創建一種基於共同政治立場的新型團體。「前進（MoveOn org.）」是由夫婦二人在家中給朋友和熟人發電子郵件而開辦起來的團體網站。現在，它是一支競選主力軍，正用網際網路勸人支持、招募新成員、嘗試拓展廣告信息業務，為其獨立競選運動籌集數百萬美元。
由於網際網路，「前進」已經成為沒有傳統政黨體制的成熟的政黨。
網際網路意味著建立代表候選人運籌競選的組織機構。在愛荷華州和新罕布夏州的初選中湧現出了數千名迪安競選運動的志願者。儘管迪安在這兩個州的競選結果讓人懷疑網上發展起來的組織的功效究竟有多大，但這阻止不了其他人做出努力，成打成打地找上門來，成為籤名支持者——在網際網路上。
政治人士們正利用「面對面（Meetup.com）」吸引支持者聚會和開展各類活動，從籌集資金到寫標語再到招募志願者。「面對面」是一家商業性網站，但已成為今年的一個政治偶像，吸引了數以千計的人參加鄰近街區與志趣相投的公民見面的聚會，並給他們一些事情做，是競選組織者所用的一種奇妙手段。
二十四年前，在與民主黨在任總統吉米-卡特（Jimmy Carter）展開第二輪總統競選辯論時，共和黨候選人羅納德-裡根（Ronald Reagan）向全國民眾發問：「你們今天比四年之前好過了嗎？」他的提問一語中的，直指卡特主政期間的經濟問題，讓人一聽就知。
也許，今天克裡應該問同樣的問題。從失業到貧窮再到破產，美國人越來越關心國家的發展方向。哥倫比亞廣播公司新聞網（CBS News）最近所做的一項民意測驗顯示，「65%的美國人說國家上錯了路」——這一數字為十年來最低。原因如下：
不能找到工作的人比四年前更多。眼下的失業率是5.6%，而四年前全國失業平均數字是4.0%。自2001年3月經濟開始衰退以來，經濟緊縮1%，就會失去130萬個工作崗位。
過去四年裡，工資增長驟降。2000年平均周工資增長達4.9%，2003年這一數字降到2.0%。通貨膨脹因素，2003年，工資實際上自1996年以來首次略有降低。
對於普通工人而言，經濟一團糟。利潤暴漲，而家庭福利則為住房、教育和醫療保健成本的迅速增長所抵消——所有這些都以兩位數的速率猛漲。
2000財政年度，美國政府有230億美元盈餘，這使總預算盈餘達到1,760億美元。國會預算辦公室（the Congressional Budget Office）現在估計，政府本年度赤字將達4,770億美元。
美國人現在比2000年要為每加侖汽油（3.8升）多支付差不多75美分。
個人破產率空前之高。據美聯社（the Associated Press）報導，「截止3月31日，個人破產率12個月來增長了2.8%」，有1,618,062件新破產案記檔在案。
鮑伯-凱夫，民主黨全國委員會（the Democratic National Committee）前執行理事；華盛頓特區的一名政治顧問人員。
附：原文網址及內容
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/geted.pl5?eo20040626bk.htm
WASHINGTON UPDATE
Internet revolutionizing American politics
By BOB KEEFE
WASHINGTON -- The campaign of 2004 is different from any that came before. The reason is the Internet. For the first time, we have Meetup, MoveOn, Right March, Bloggers, E-Voting and political Spam. Good, bad or indifferent, the Internet is proving to be a major player in the prosecution of the presidential campaign of 2004.
The Internet has made its mark in fundraising. The ill-fated presidential campaign of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean proved that a lot of little contributions collected online can add up to a great deal of money for a campaign. He raised more than $50 million in his effort, and most of it came via the Internet. The techniques that his crew pioneered have been successfully copied by other campaigns, including the one of Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. As of June 1, Kerry had raised $57 million on the Internet. During the period the Internet allowed him to rake in more than the money machine of President George W. Bush.
The Internet is providing the campaign with an instantaneous multimedia conduit to supporters. The Bush campaign has more than 6 million e-mail addresses and it uses them constantly. It previews commercials and develops word-of-mouth campaigns through its e-mail program. It also raises money and volunteers, but it is mainly solidifying its base of voters through the Internet.
The Internet is building new organizations based on collective political positions. MoveOn.org is a group that began with a couple in their home e-mailing to friends and acquaintances. Now it is a major campaign force. MoveOn is using the Internet to raise millions of dollars for its independent campaigns, to proselytize, to recruit new members, to test and develop advertising messages.
The Internet has made MoveOn a full blown political party without the traditional institutions of a party, thanks to the Internet.
The Internet presumes to build organizations to work elections on behalf of the candidate. The Dean campaign produced thousands of volunteers in the Iowa and New Hampshire primary contests. Although Dean's results in those states called into question the efficacy of the organizations developed online, they won't stop others from making the effort to turn out door knockers and sign holders by the dozens -- on the Internet.
Politicians are taking advantage of Meetup.com to attract supporters to meet and carry out various activities, from fundraising to sign painting and volunteer recruitment. Meetup is a commercial enterprise, but it has become a political icon this year. It attracts thousands of people to their neighborhood parties to meet like-minded citizens and give them something to do. It is a marvelous tool for the campaign organizer.
Twenty-four years ago, in his second presidential debate with Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter, Republican candidate Ronald Reagan asked the nation, "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" His question drove home the economic problems that Carter was presiding over.
Maybe Kerry should ask the same question today. From unemployment to poverty to bankruptcies, Americans are increasingly concerned about the direction of the country. A recent CBS News poll showed "65 percent of Americans said the country was on the wrong track" -- the lowest level in a decade. Here is why:
More people are unable to find work than four years ago. The current unemployment rate is 5.6 percent. Four years ago, the national unemployment average was 4.0 percent. Since the recession began in March 2001, 1.3 million jobs have disappeared for a 1 percent contraction.
Growth in wages fell dramatically over the past four years. In 2000, median weekly wages grew by 4.9 percent. This fell to 2.0 percent in 2003. Adjusted for inflation, wages fell slightly in real terms in 2003 for the first time since 1996.
The economy is upside down for the average worker. Profits have soared, yet families' benefits are nullified by the rapidly rising costs of housing, education and medical care -- all of which jumped at double-digit rates.
For fiscal year 2000, the U.S. government had a surplus of $23 billion, which brought the total budget surplus to $176 billion. The Congressional Budget Office now estimates that the government will be $477 billion in the red this year.
Americans are paying as much as 75 cents per gallon (3.8 liters) more for gasoline then they did in 2000.
Personal bankruptcies are at an all-time high. The Associated Press reports, "Personal bankruptcies rose 2.8 percent in the 12 months ending March 31" with 1,618,062 new bankruptcy filings.
Bob Keefe, formerly an executive director of the Democratic National Committee, is a political consultant in Washington, D.C.
The Japan Times: June 26, 2004
文章來源：譯者賜稿