半島華人注:疫情在深深地改變著我們的生活,在國際舞臺上,在疫情的籠罩下,兩個行業成為了各國廝殺的新領地,那就是 疫苗 和 航空。
先撇開不說中國航空公司各種各樣顯而易見的優勢,在海外滯留的華人可能擁有的最直接的印象就是:
當然這個一票難求的時代,有票是第一步,票已經稀少到大家不需要去「挑食」了,或者叫「飢不擇食」!當然航空公司也不是就是賺的盆滿缽滿,也只是在維持生存,疫情讓大家都過上了不好過的日子。
至少跟飽受新冠疫情摧殘的同行比,中國航空公司現在掉進了蜜罐裡。全國14億龐大的人口渴望去旅行,人民幣提振,油價越來越便宜。
Chinese carriers are in a sweet spot, relative to their Covid-battered peers at least. The country’s 1.4-billion-strong population is eager to travel, the yuan is rallying and oil is getting cheaper.
A Bloomberg gauge of the sector shows nine of the world’s top 10 airline stocks over the past three months are Chinese, with all but Air China shares posting double-digit gains. The odd one out is InterGlobe Aviation Ltd., which operates India’s biggest carrier, IndiGo. That’s sixth on the list with a 13 per cent advance. The top performer is low-cost carrier Spring Airlines Co., which has climbed 22 per cent. 因各國政府實施了前所未有的邊境封鎖,並且人們不願再去旅行,全球航空業被新冠疫情重重一擊。國際航空運輸協會,由290家航空公司組成,預計在2024年以前乘客量不可能會恢復到疫情前的水平。
The global airline industry has been walloped by the coronavirus pandemic, as governments imposed unprecedented border restrictions and people became more reluctant to travel. The International Air Transport Association, which represents some 290 airlines, doesn’t expect passenger traffic to recover to pre-pandemic levels before 2024.
中國航空公司也不是對這次危機免疫,相反,只是有賴於廣大的國內市場以及取消為控制疫情而施加的各種限制,他們努力地以較快地速度恢復了起來。
Chinese carriers haven’t been immune to the crisis, but they』ve managed to recover much faster thanks to a vast domestic market and the removal of travel curbs as the outbreak there was brought under control.
股市本月加速上漲,部分原因是人民幣走強。
Stock gains have accelerated this month, in part on the yuan’s strength.
這進一步拉低了航空公司的燃油成本以及債務,因為其中一部分是以美元借入的。最近油價進一步走低壓制了油料成本,這與很多其他航司不同,中國航空公司不能迴避。依然,中國的三大巨頭 - 中國國航、中國南方航空以及中國東方航空-預計在今年下半年不會盈利,據彭博社的分析預測。三家航空公司在上半年公布虧損超過80億人民幣(12億美元)【也就是說下半年逐漸開放後航司的收益將上半年的虧損80億拉到年底不盈利,持平,那總體來看還是客觀的】
That lowers the airlines』 costs on fuel as well as debt, some of which is borrowed in US dollars. Recent oil price declines further cap fuel expenses, which unlike many carriers Chinese airlines don’t hedge. Still, China’s big three — Air China, China Southern Airlines Co. and China Eastern Airlines Corp. - are expected to be unprofitable in the second half of this year, according to analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. They each posted first-half losses of more than 8 billion yuan ($1.2 billion).