SCHUMPETER IS ONLY an amateur stargazer. His equipment is no fancier than a pair of eyes and a place in the countryside, away from London』 s light pollution. That is enough to make out Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn — and, occasionally, the International Space Station crossing the firmament. In the past few years a new spectacle has appeared, in the form of the Starlink satellites. Launched in batches by
SpaceX, an American rocketry firm founded by Elon Musk, the tech billionaire behind Tesla』 s electric cars, they resemble nothing else in the heavens, floating like a train of white dots in tight formation. Bad weather delayed the launch of the latest batch on July 8th. When they do go up, they will total nearly 600, making SpaceX the world』 s biggest satellite operator.
本專欄記者只是個業餘觀星愛好者，手頭的設備不過是一雙肉眼和一處遠離倫敦光汙染的鄉間居所。這也足以分辨金星、火星、木星和土星，偶爾還能發現穿越天穹的國際空間站。過去幾年，天空中出現了另一個新奇觀——星鏈衛星（Starlink）。這些衛星由擁有特斯拉的科技億萬富翁伊隆·馬斯克創立的火箭公司 SpaceX 分批發射，看起來像一排緊挨著的白色亮點，不同於天空中其他一切星體。最新一批星鏈衛星原定於 7 月 8 日發射，但因惡劣天氣推遲。等到這批衛星升空，軌道內的星鏈衛星總數將接近 600 顆，令 SpaceX 成為全球最大的衛星運營商。
SpaceX is a remarkable firm. It was founded in 2002, to further Mr Musk』 s dream of colonising Mars. It is a case study in disruption—a startup with no track record has humbled incumbents like Boeing and Lockheed Martin. Its rockets cost half as much as its rivals』 do, thanks in part to their ability to land their first stages for reuse rather than dumping them in the sea in line with standard industry practice. The firm was last valued at $36bn, more than better-known tech darlings such as Airbnb, DoorDash or Palantir.
SpaceX 是一家非凡的企業。它成立於 2002 年，目的是推進馬斯克的火星殖民夢。這家毫無資歷的創業公司讓波音和洛克希德·馬丁等老牌公司自愧不如，堪稱「顛覆」的典型案例。SpaceX 的火箭價格是對手的一半，這在一定程度上要歸功於它把第一級火箭降落回收，而不是像行業一貫所做的那樣讓它們墜入大海報廢。該公司的最新估值為 360 億美元，超過了愛彼迎、外賣公司 DoorDash 或大數據公司 Palantir 等更知名的科技寵兒。
SpaceX』 s rocket business alone does not justify this rich valuation. The market for launches is small and stagnant. Mr Musk himself has said that the most his firm could hope to earn from them is around $3bn in revenue a year. If he is to make it to Mars— and if his investors are to see big returns — he needs another plan. This is where Starlink comes in. Those satellites visible from Schumpeter’s garden are the vanguard
of a planned constellation of over 1,000, designed to beam the internet to every corner of the globe.
單憑火箭業務， SpaceX 是難以獲得如此高估值的。發射市場很小，且停滯不前。馬斯克本人曾表示公司每年能從火箭發射業務獲得的收入最多也就 30 億美元左右。如果他要進軍火星，而且如果投資者還要獲得豐厚回報，就需要另作謀劃。這正是星鏈的意義所在。星鏈計劃發射 1000 多顆衛星，把網際網路信號傳播到全球每一個角落，現在從記者的花園裡看到的這些衛星便是其中的「先頭部隊」。
Satellite broadband is not a new idea. But existing options are expensive and slow. Starlink』 s cheap, mass-produced, low-flying satellites would, SpaceX claims, offer a service comparable to earthly broadband at competitive prices. It could serve poorly connected villages in rural Africa (or rural America for that matter), as well as oil rigs or cargo ships at sea. Mr Musk has noted that the global telecoms market is worth roughly $1trn. If SpaceX captured even a fraction of that, Morgan Stanley, a bank, recently opined, it could be worth anywhere from $50bn to $120bn or more, making its present valuation look like a bargain.
衛星寬帶並不是什麼新點子。但現有的選擇又貴又慢。SpaceX 聲稱這些批量生產的廉價近地星鏈衛星將以有競爭力的價格提供堪比地面寬帶的網絡服務，可為聯網不便的非洲偏遠農村（或者就網絡服務而言同樣偏遠的美國農村） 、 海上石油鑽井平臺或海上航行的貨船提供聯網服務。馬斯克指出，全球電信市場的價值約為一萬億美元。摩根史坦利近期表示，即便 SpaceX 只獲取其中一小部分，價值也可能達到 500 億至 1200 億美元或者更高，令該公司目前的估值顯得很便宜。
The world has been here before. Iridium announced similar plans in the late 1990s with gales of hype: the first call on its network was between Al Gore, then America』 s vice-president, and a distant descendant of Alexander Graham Bell. Nine months later the firm went bust, swamped by the upfront capital costs of launching satellites. LeoSat, a firm based in Luxembourg, was founded in 2013. It shut down last year for lack of investor interest.
世界上不乏這類先例。銥星公司（Iridium）在上世紀 90 年代後期大肆宣傳過類似的計劃：首次通過其網絡連線通話的是時任美國副總統戈爾和電話之父貝爾的一個曾孫。九個月後，該公司因無法負擔發射衛星所需的龐大前期資本成本而破產。還有在 2013 年成立的總部位於盧森堡的 LeoSat 公司， 因乏投資者問津而在去年倒閉。
Starlink』 s chief competitor is OneWeb, with 74 satellites in orbit and hundreds more planned. It, too, went bust in March, after failing to persuade even Son Masayoshi (also known as Masa), a Japanese tech billionaire with a stake and a well-documented affection for risky startups, to pony up more cash. But it has new backers. On July 3rd Boris Johnson, Britain』 s shaggy-dog prime minister, announced that his government had stumped up $500m for a 45% stake in OneWeb, and a golden share giving it control over its future. Bharti Global, an Indian telecoms firm, also put in $500m.
星鏈的主要競爭對手是 OneWeb， 後者擁有 74 顆在軌衛星，計劃再發射數百顆。但在未能說服日本高科技富豪孫正義（持有 OneWeb 股份而且一貫愛好投資高風險創業公司）加大注資後，該公司也在今年 3 月申請破產。但如今它迎來了新的投資者。7 月 3 日，英國那位頭髮亂蓬蓬的首相詹森宣布政府已斥資五億美元購入 OneWeb 45％的股份，並持有黃金股而得以控制該公司的未來發展。印度電信公司 Bharti Global 也投資了五億美元。
Mr Johnson』 s decision drew general bafflement—and an instant flurry of speculation about its rationale. Could he be trying to safeguard a domestic high-tech gem? Britain has long tried to nurture its small but sophisticated space sector and OneWeb is notionally a British firm; its parent company is based in Jersey, an island in the English Channel. But many of its operations, including satellite manufacturing, are in America. Perhaps the reasons were strategic? China was circling, claims one person close to the deal, and Britain pounced to frustrate its ambitions. Except that the American court administering the bankruptcy may be reluctant to hand OneWeb over to a Chinese firm. Politics almost certainly played a part. Britain 』 s exit from the European Union has limited its access to Galileo, the EU』 s alternative to America』 s GPS satellites. A bombastic promise to build an all-British replacement, at a cost of £5bn ($6.3bn) or more, looks dubious. Bolting a less capable navigation service onto OneWeb』 s satellites may offer Mr Johnson a face-saving way to back down, while pushing back against the perception that Brexit has made the country parochial.
詹森的決定令很多人感到困惑，隨即引起了對其背後動機的連串猜測。這是為了保護英國本土高科技公司嗎？英國一直都想培育自己規模小但高精尖的太空產業，而 OneWeb 理論上算是英國公司——其母公司位於英吉利海峽中的澤西島。但它的許多業務運作都在美國，包括衛星製造。或者這一決策是出於戰略考慮？一位知情人士表示，中國正試探性地接觸 OneWeb， 而英國的迅速出手挫敗了其野心。不過負責處理這一破產申請的美國法院應該不會願意把 OneWeb 交給一家中國公司。其中有政治上的考慮幾乎是確定無疑的。英國脫歐限制了它使用歐盟的伽利略衛星定位系統（可替代美國的 GPS 系統）。英國政府曾誇口說要花費50 億英鎊（63 億美元）或更多資金建立一套自己的衛星定位系統，這看起來並不靠譜。依靠 OneWeb 的衛星建立一套稍差一些的導航服務或許可以幫助詹森體面地從空頭承諾中抽身，同時也可以反駁脫歐令英國變得孤立的說法。
Yet there are also hopes, according to insiders, that the bizarre acquisition may work on purely commercial grounds. OneWeb has priority over SpaceX for the bits of the electromagnetic spectrum needed to beam the internet from the heavens. Those satellite companies that survived bankruptcy—such as Iridium—have come out on the other side as viable, if somewhat dull businesses. Like railways in the 19th century and subsequent infrastructure projects, globe-spanning satellite broadband may become a viable proposition once the initial investors, who often overpay exuberantly, have been wiped out.
但據一些內部人士稱，這宗離奇的收購也有可能完全是出於商業目的。在獲得從太空發射網際網路信號所需的部分無線頻譜上， OneWeb 比 SpaceX 有優先權。另一邊，銥星公司等破產後重建的衛星公司也顯現出可行性， 儘管生意平平。就像19 世紀的鐵路和隨後的基礎設施項目一樣，在往往大筆燒錢的第一批投資者被淘汰後，覆蓋全球的衛星寬帶也許能成為切實可行的計劃。
And Mr Musk could use a rival in low-Earth orbit. Jeff Bezos, the biggest tech tycoon of all, is working on a similar project, but has yet to put any satellites into space. In the meantime, competition from OneWeb would spur innovation and prevent SpaceX from settling into a celestial monopoly.
而馬斯克在近地軌道上也需要競爭對手。排名科技大亨之首的傑夫·貝佐斯正在研究類似的項目，但尚未發射任何衛星。同時，來自 OneWeb 的競爭將刺激創新並防止 SpaceX 安於太空壟斷的地位。
A giant leap of faith
Can the British government be a source of competitive pressure? The politest description of its entrepreneurial record is 「spotty」 —just ask owners of clunkers such as an Austin Allegro or Morris Marina, produced after the partial nationalisation in 1968 of British Leyland. OneWeb may need a further injection of cash if it is to complete its constellation. British taxpayers may never see a financial return on their investment. But if OneWeb keeps Mr Musk on his toes even for a little while, their loss may turn out to be global consumers』 gain. Stranger things have happened in space.
英國政府會成為競爭壓力的一個源頭嗎？說起英國政府以往插手企業的成績，
「參差不齊」算是最客氣的說法了，問問 1968 年英國利蘭汽車公司（British
Leyland）部分國有化後生產的奧斯汀·快板（Austin Allegro）或莫裡斯·瑪麗
娜（Morris Marina）這類破車的車主便可知一二。OneWeb 要建成衛星網絡可能需要投資者進一步注資。英國納稅人可能永遠不能看到他們的投資帶來財務回報。但哪怕 OneWeb 能讓馬斯克多忌憚那麼一會兒，英國納稅人的損失就可能會成為全球消費者的收益。太空中已經有過很多奇事了。
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