For the first time in a while, there is a half-compelling case to buy Europe.
一段時間以來，首次出現了購買歐洲資產的有說服力的理由。
Two menare sitting in adjacent restaurant booths. One is talking at length— about train journeys, women, morality, taking chances, living one day at a time. The other is captivated. 「When you die, you’re going to regret the things you don’t do,」 says the speaker. After more of this, he sighs, pauses and offers his new friend a drink. He then takes out a map. 「This is a piece of land,」 he says. 「Listen to what I’m going to tell you now.」
兩個男人坐在相鄰的餐廳包廂裡。其中一個是長篇大論——關於火車旅行、女人、道德、冒險、過好每一天。另一個被迷住了。「當你死的時候，你會為你沒有做的事情而後悔，」他說。又說了幾句之後，他嘆了口氣，停頓了一下，遞給他的新朋友一杯酒。然後他拿出一張地圖。「這是一塊土地，」他說。「聽我現在要告訴你的。」
This is how Richard Roma, the alpha salesman in 「Glengarry Glen Ross」, a play by David Mamet, seduces a stranger into buying a tract of undeveloped land. The scene comes to mind when considering the investment case for euro-zone stocks. The phrase 「time to buy European equities」 can elicit the same sort of alarmed response as an invitation to buy Florida swampland. An oblique sales pitch is generally advisable—even though now might be a better time than usual to make it.
大衛·馬梅特(David Mamet)的戲劇《窈窕騎士》(Glengarry Glen Ross)中，首席推銷員理察·羅瑪(Richard Roma)就是這樣引誘一個陌生人買下一塊未開發的土地的。在考慮投資歐元區股票的理由時，這一幕浮現在我的腦海中。「是時候購買歐洲股票了」這句話，可能會引發類似於邀請購買佛羅裡達沼澤地的警告反應。雖然現在可能是一個比以往更好的時機，但間接推銷通常是明智的。
How would a stockbroking Ricky Roma sell the euro-zone story? The main thing would be not to oversell it: Europe is hardly transformed. The meat of it is that things are not as bad as you probably think. The euro-zone’s weaknesses have not gone away, but are much less crippling. It is likely to do quite well in the early stages of economic recovery. That might just be enough to close the deal.
股票經紀公司裡基•羅姆(Ricky Roma)會如何兜售歐元區的故事?最重要的是不要過分吹噓:歐洲幾乎沒有什麼變化。最重要的是，事情可能沒有你想的那麼糟。歐元區的弱點並沒有消失，但已經沒有那麼嚴重了。在經濟復甦的早期階段，它可能會表現得很好。這可能就足以完成交易了。
One sure-thing trade that the euro zone has spawned is in books and articles about how it is a half-finished project. It is a monetary union, but not a political one. The single market is fragmented in services and banking. Tax and spending decisions are made at the national level. But things have changed quite a bit. The European Central Bank looks a lot more like its peers than it did in, say, 2010. Like them, it is more or less committed to reflation. The hawkish German influence on its apparatus has waned. And the pandemic is curing hangups around fiscal stimulus. The European Union’s recovery fund is a step towards a shared fiscal policy. It is not huge. But it is not nothing either.
關於歐元區是一個半途而廢的項目的書籍和文章中，有一件事是肯定的。這是一個貨幣聯盟，但不是一個政治聯盟。單一市場在服務業和銀行業已經支離破碎。稅收和支出的決定是在國家層面上做出的。但情況已經發生了相當大的變化。與2010年相比，歐洲央行(ecb)看起來更像其同行。與他們一樣，中國或多或少致力於通貨再膨脹。德國鷹派對其機構的影響已經減弱。而且，這一流行病正在治癒圍繞財政刺激的難題。歐盟(eu)的復甦基金(recovery fund)是邁向共同財政政策的一步。它並不大。但也不是一無是處。
The euro zone’s equity market has suffered from a weakness in its make-up: too few of the digital companies of the future; too many of the industrial companies of the past. But time has whittled away at this, too. After years of underperformance, Europe’s banks and energy companies had dwindled to a 10% share of market capitalisation by the late summer, as Graham Secker of Morgan Stanley, a bank, noted at the time. Technology had become the largest single sector in the Euro Stoxx 50 benchmark index, at 14%. The public-equity market is still a more cyclical play than that in America. But it is no longer true to say that Europe is a technology desert. Venture capitalists talk excitedly about the strength of the pipeline of software startups across continental Europe.
歐元區的股票市場遭受了其構成上的弱點:未來的數字公司太少;太多的過去的工業公司。但隨著時間的推移，這一點也在逐漸削弱。摩根史坦利的格雷厄姆•塞克(Graham Secker)當時指出，在經歷了多年的不佳表現後，歐洲的銀行和能源公司到今年夏末已跌至市值的10%。科技股已成為歐洲斯託克50基準指數中最大的單一板塊，漲幅達14%。公共股本市場仍然比美國市場更具周期性。但說歐洲是科技沙漠已不再正確。風險投資家們興奮地談論著整個歐洲大陸的軟體初創公司的實力。
In any event, it is its old-economy cyclical stocks that are piquing interest. If Europe has been the big loser from the pandemic, it ought to be a big beneficiary of reopening, goes one argument. The forecast for earnings-per-share growth next year is as high as 50% for the Euro Stoxx, according to Mislav Matejka of JPMorgan. A one-off bounce might not impress much. But there is a decent case that euro-zone equities might sustain interest beyond 2021—that the 「runway is longer」, as Mr Secker puts it. The stimulative effect of the eu’s recovery fund will probably not be felt until 2022. As global economic recovery takes a stronger hold, investors will start to worry more about higher inflation. That might favour a more longer-lasting tilt towards cyclical stocks.
無論如何，激起人們興趣的是其傳統經濟周期型股票。有一種觀點認為，如果歐洲是大流行的大輸家，那麼它應該是重新開放的大受益者。摩根大通(JPMorgan)的米斯拉夫•馬泰卡(Mislav Matejka)表示，對歐洲斯託克明年每股收益增長的預測高達50%。一次性的反彈可能不會給人留下太深刻的印象。但是有一種很好的情況是，歐元區的股票在2021年後仍能保持人們的興趣——正如Secker先生所說，「跑道更長」。歐盟復興基金的刺激效應可能要到2022年才能感受到。隨著全球經濟復甦勢頭更加強勁，投資者將開始更加擔心通脹上升。這可能有利於更長期的周期性股票傾向。
Why not simply buy emerging-market stocks instead? You still get exposure to companies that benefit from economic recovery; you also get plenty of tech stocks; and on top of all this you benefit from a weaker dollar, which is generally helpful for financing costs in developing economies. Yes, the dollar is expected by many to lose further ground. But what if it doesn’t? And what if Treasury yields start to rise quickly? That would be a tricky combination for emerging markets. Europe would be the sounder bet. (A stockbroking Ricky Roma might say that you don’t have to choose. Buy a bit of both.)
為什麼不乾脆買新興市場的股票呢?你仍然會投資那些從經濟復甦中受益的公司;你還可以買到大量的科技股;除此之外，你還能從美元貶值中受益，這通常有助於提高發展中經濟體的融資成本。是的，許多人預計美元將進一步下跌。但如果沒有呢?如果美國國債收益率開始迅速上升會怎樣?對新興市場而言，這將是一個棘手的組合。歐洲將是更合理的選擇。股票經紀人羅馬可能會說你不需要選擇。兩種都買一點。
abc—always be closing—is the mantra of Roma and his fellow salesmen. It is trickier to seal the deal when the story is not 「things are great」 but rather 「things are a lot better than they were". Still, this counts as a more-than-decent pitch as far as the euro zone goes, even if it is an odd one to close on. After all, it is mostly about reopening.
abc — 總是循環 — 是羅姆和他的銷售夥伴們的口頭語。當故事不是「事情很好」，而是「事情比過去好得多」時，達成協議就更難了。儘管如此，就歐元區的發展而言，這仍然是一個相當不錯的選擇，儘管它的結束有點奇怪。畢竟，它主要是關於重新開放。長按上面二維碼關注公眾號: 財經英語
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