作者: 亨利·基辛格（Henry Kissinger）
來源: 原載於2020年4月3日的華爾街日報《Wall Street Journal》
新冠病毒肺炎（COVID-19）席捲全球，世界格局也受到巨大衝擊。美國前國務卿基辛格（Henry Kissinger）4月3日在《華爾街日報》刊文稱，新冠病毒大流行將永遠改變世界秩序；新冠病毒以前所未有的規模和猛烈程度向人類發起攻擊。新冠病毒對人類健康的影響可能是暫時的，但它所引發的政治和經濟動蕩可能會對幾代人產生影響。各國必須在合作的基礎上解決當前的問題，否則將讓世界陷入災難。
Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has warned of global economic doom that could last for generations if coronavirus isn't beat
The Coronavirus Pandemic will forever
alter the world order
The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.
Covid-19大流行的超現實氣氛讓我回想起我在突出部之役作為第84步兵師的一個年輕人時的感受。現在，就像當時1944年末一樣，有一種醞釀的危險，它不針對任何特定的人，而是隨機地進行破壞性打擊。但是，那個遙遠的時代與我們當下的世界存在重要的區別。當時，美國人的堅毅精神因為國家的終極目標而得以強化；現在，在一個分裂的國家，只有擁有一個高效率和有遠見的政府才能克服如此前所未見、破壞巨大、全球規模的挑戰。維持公眾信任對於社會團結，社會關係以及國際和平與穩定至關重要。
Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries』 institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done.
各國都相信他們本國的機構可以預見災難，遏制災難的影響，並恢復穩定，這個信念使國家能團結一致，蓬勃發展。當Covid-19大流行結束時，許多國家的機構將被評判為「應對不力」。這一判斷是否客觀公正無關緊要。現實是，冠狀病毒之後的世界將永遠不一樣。現在還爭論過去的事情，只會使我們將要做的事情變得更加困難。
The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day. At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away.
新冠病毒以前所未有的規模和猛烈程度向人類發起攻擊。它的傳播是指數級的：美國的確診病例數每五天就翻一番。在撰寫本文時，還沒有新型冠狀病毒的針對性治療方法。醫療供應無法應付病毒的加速蔓延，重症監護病房已經到了不堪重負的邊緣。檢測數量不足以確定感染的程度，更不用說逆轉病毒的蔓延。成功的疫苗可能需要12到18個月。
Illustration: By Paolo Calleri
The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus’s spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans』 ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.
美國管理部門在避免疫情失控方面做了很多工作。最終的考驗是該病毒的傳播是否可以被遏制，然後以一種維持公眾對美國政府管理能力信心的方式和規模扭轉疫情。抗擊疫情，無論多麼巨大和必要，都決不能排除同時啟動規劃向新冠病毒之後的秩序過渡這一緊迫任務。
Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus’s society-dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will—hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each.
領導人在很大程度上是在國家層面上應對這場危機，但是新冠病毒在社會上的破壞作用並不停留於國界。新冠病毒對人類健康的攻擊是暫時的，至少我們希望是，但它所引發的政治和經濟動蕩可能會對幾代人產生影響。沒有一個國家，即使是美國，能夠僅僅通過一國的努力戰勝這種病毒。解決當前的問題，最終必須與全球合作的願景和計劃相結合。如果我們不能同時做這兩件事，我們將面臨最糟糕的結果—防疫和國際合作的雙重失敗。
Illustration: Dom McKenzie/The Observer
Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains.
美國從馬歇爾計劃和曼哈頓項目的發展中吸取了教訓，美國有義務在三個領域作出巨大的努力。
First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.
首先，增強全球抵禦傳染病的能力。脊髓灰質炎疫苗和根除天花等醫學科學的勝利，或者通過人工智慧進行醫學診斷的新興統計技術的奇蹟，使我們陷入了危險的自滿情緒。我們需要開發新的傳染病防控技術，開發疫苗應用於廣泛人群。地方政府也必須一如既往、科學地開展儲備、合作計劃和探索等準備工作，保護其人民免受流行病之害。
Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world’s most vulnerable populations.
第二，努力治癒世界經濟的創傷。全球領導人都從2008年金融危機中吸取了重要教訓。當前的經濟危機更為複雜：新冠病毒的傳播速度和全球蔓延規模都是史無前例的。社會隔離，關閉學校和企業等必要的公共衛生措施正在加劇經濟困境。計劃還應該尋求減輕即將到來的混亂對世界上最弱勢人群的影響。
Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people.
第三，維護自由世界秩序的原則。美國現代政府的開國傳奇是一個由強力統治者保護的圍牆城市，統治者有時專橫有時仁慈，但始終強有力地保護人民免受外敵的侵害。啟蒙思想家重新定義了這一概念，認為合法國家的目的是滿足人民的基本需求：安全，秩序，經濟福祉和正義。個人無法自己保護這些東西。新冠病毒大流行已經引發了「過時主義」的思考，在這個繁榮取決於全球貿易和人員流動的時代，「圍牆城市」概念的回歸。
The world’s democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.
世界上的民主國家需要捍衛和維持其啟蒙運動的價值觀。全球範圍內法制和權力之間平衡的退步將使社會契約在國內和國際上瓦解。然而，這個千禧年的法制和權力的問題無法與新冠病毒防疫同時解決。在國內政治和國際外交中，各方都必須克制。必須確定問題的優先次序。
We went on from the Battle of the Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.
我們從1944年的突出部之役來到了一個日益繁榮和人類尊嚴不斷提升的世界。現在，我們生活在一個劃時代的時期。領導人面臨著歷史性的挑戰，那就是在應對危機的同時建設未來。不能做到這一點，將會使世界陷入災難。
Illustration:Lorenzo Gritti
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