時值年末，《紐約時報 New York Times》推出了 「轉折點Turning Point」年度特別策劃系列專欄，邀集國際專家共同探討2020世界變局下的幾大關鍵轉折點，以及未來更深遠的影響和意義。
李開復受《紐約時報》邀請撰文，在這篇「Give the A.I. Economy a Human Touch｜以人為本，擁抱AI新經濟」的文章中，首度提出了AI新經濟時代將導致退工潮難題的三種解決方案，在英文簡稱三個R：Relearn 二次學習，Recalibrate 二次定義，Renaissance 二次復興。
原文標題：Give the A.I. Economy a Human Touch
近年來，自動化、機器人與人工智慧已經接管了部分常規性、重複性工作。在全球新冠疫情的衝擊下，安全保障及降本提效的需求迫切，為自動化取代人工的落地進程起到推波助瀾的作用。疫情期間，各行各業都竭力避免人和人直接產生接觸，類似餐飲外賣、快遞流通、遠程醫療都提供了無人接觸的新形態服務模式。但疫情趨於穩定後，大多數人仍然迫不及待地重拾和他人碰面開會、熱鬧聚餐的美好接觸。
當人類社會大步邁往AI新經濟的同時，2020這一年，我們都上了一堂人性本質的必修課。
我在1983年開啟了AI生涯，在當年提交美國卡內基·梅隆大學博士學位的申請書上我寫著：「AI是對人類學習歷程的闡釋，對人類思維過程的量化，對人類行為的澄清，以及對人類智能的理解。AI將是人類認識並理解自己的最後一裡。」
某個角度看，當年的我可能錯了，但某些方面，22歲的我可能說中了！
AI程序和算法在不少任務上已經能夠仿效、甚至超越人腦的表現，如果AI在功能上取代機械式的重複工作，促使人們解放身心去探尋生命的真諦，我們將進一步重拾人類社會獨有的情感和人性光芒。
人工智慧對重複性工作的衝擊已然揭開序幕，和人類僱員相比，AI的本領更強大、成本更低廉。即使某些工作由於短期因素被迫臨時取代，長期來說也大概率將一去不復返。人工智慧帶來巨大經濟增長效益的同時，也正掀起前所未有退工潮。我在《AI·未來》一書中預計，到了2033 年，約 40% 的工作將被AI和自動化取代。
AI新經濟革命的浪潮已然來臨，隨之而來的工作消亡問題，是人類命運共同體的時代性挑戰。
AI將取代數百萬計的工作，AI未來會成為人類的工具甚至同事，在迎接2021年的當下，我提出三種解決方案，在英文簡稱三個R：Relearn 二次學習，Recalibrate二次定義，Renaissance 二次復興。
二次學習 Relearn
我們應該發出嚴正警告，喚醒那些正踩在下崗懸崖邊緣的人們，鼓勵他們主動出擊，重新學習。
令人欣慰的是，有不少人類的技能是AI學不會的，特別是那些需要創造力、社交技巧、複雜工藝、還有仰賴人工操作AI工具的崗位。我們可以逐步幫助人們掌握這些新技能，積極投入「二次學習」，為AI新經濟下的新型工作場景做好準備。
職業培訓機構需要儘快重設課程，增加AI時代可持續就業的培訓科目；政府可為這些培訓提供獎勵和補貼，企業應當參考類似亞馬遜職業選擇計劃 (Career Choice program) 的方案，為每位時薪制員工花上四年的時間和經費，補貼個人職業再造所需的培訓項目，幫助僱員報考如飛機維修技師、電腦輔助設計師、醫療護理師等職業所需的資格許可證。
值得關注的是，隨著財富增長與壽命延長，「銀髮看護」方向的關懷型職業將成為社會剛需，其重要性與需求量都會水漲船高。世界衛生組織預測，要實現聯合國「人人享有良好的健康和福祉」的可持續發展目標，全球醫護人員需求的缺口高達 1800 萬人。過去，這類關懷型職業往往被重視度欠佳、薪酬也普遍偏低，但往後，這些「以人為本」的關懷型職業將成為AI新經濟運行的基石，也值得更多人考慮通過二次學習來投入。
為了進一步平衡人力供需失衡，我們甚至可以考慮把目前「志願者服務」類型的工作調整為全職薪酬工作，諸如獻血中心人員、動物保育員、夏令營老師、心理諮詢師等。可預見的是，自動化時代一旦到來，社會將需要大批志願者為失業人員提供熱線諮詢，輔導人們解決職場轉換的疑難雜症，排解心理壓力而可能造成的社會問題，這些志願者也應當獲得合理的報酬和認可。
二次定義 Recalibrate
在整體社會邁向AI新經濟的轉型期，有不少職業需要重新定義具體的工作內容和工作方式。
我們都經歷了信息化革命，短短幾十年內徹底改變了人們的工作方式。AI時代則進一步催生各行各業的智能化進化解決方案：AI能海量計算量化任務的最優解，AI能測算不同條件下的沙盤推演， AI能協助不同行業的崗位優化流程，代勞日常重複事務。我認為，很難有單一通用型的AI工具。AI必須針對各個行業提供高定製化的解決方案，舉凡藥物分子研發、營銷廣告策劃、新聞信息核實等任務，都能通過定製的AI工具來實現。
當我們採用「二次定義」的方案，充分把以人為本的人性特質，和AI善於優化的技術優勢深度結合起來，許多工作職業將被重塑，不少新興崗位也將隨之而來。
AI和人類各展所長、分工協作，AI能既智能又敏捷地承擔起各種重複性任務，從業者的時間就能花在需要溫暖、創意、策略的人文層面工作，發揮1+1> 2的縱效。舉例來說，人們生病了仍然最為信任人類醫生，醫師用著專業AI醫療診斷工具，快速準確地為患者計算出最佳的治療方案，於是能勻出更充裕的時間和病人深入探討病情，撫慰他們的心靈。醫生的職業角色將會二次定義為「關愛型醫生」。
正如移動網際網路催生了滴滴司機、美團小哥等職業，AI的崛起也將創造出漸顯雛形的新工作。目前已經有AI工程師、數據科學家、數據標註員、機器人維修員等AI時代的新職業，我們應時刻關注AI新經濟進程中湧現出的新興崗位，確保就業大眾掌握情況，輔以培訓。
二次復興 Renaissance
中國歷史上有膾炙人口的唐詩宋詞元曲；濫觴於義大利的歐洲文藝復興則誕生了輝煌的文學、音樂、建築和雕塑，數百年後仍為人讚頌（譯註：Renaissance一詞即為文藝復興）。AI新經濟將能激蕩出怎樣的人文復興？值得我們引頸以待。
AI新經濟時代將改寫職場規劃的固有模式。人工智慧與自動化技術為人類代勞了重複性事務，我們得以重新檢視傳統意義的工作形態，我們工作與生活兩者將如何重新平衡？我們每周的工作時間表是不是能更加個性化？如今的退休等同於個人生產力終止，但往後是不是能開展截然不同的第二人生？
AI新經濟時代將促成一套全新的社會契約。AI將人類從重複工作釋放出來，我們的時間寬裕了，我們的心志解放了，人們終於能夠專注於最擅長的領域，釋放激情、創造力及才華，把我們的能力用於發明、發現、創造、創意等層面，人人都有機會通過AI時代的二次復興，重新發掘內在的真實潛力。
AI工具將成為繪畫、雕塑及攝影藝術家們的得力助手，AI視覺工具可以按照他們的指示來構建、實驗、完善作品。AI文字工具得以輔助小說家、詩人、記者為寫作注入新靈感。教師花在批改試卷和作業的任務交給AI，時間精力節約出來，得以設計嶄新的課程課件，激發學生的好奇心、批判性思維和創造力。課堂間傳遞標準化知識信息的任務交給AI，時間交給老師和學生們進行個性化互動、啟迪孩子們的情商，老師們才能蛻變為AI時代的教育家。
締結新的社會契約
針對人類社會即將迎來前所未有的退工潮挑戰，上述三種解決方案的框架是當務之急。不僅用人單位需要對大量失業人員再培訓，政府及有關單位需要提前規劃大筆經費來支撐這個過渡階段，學校需要及早檢視課程體系，培養具備創造性、社交技能和跨領域知識的未來人才。我們需要重新定義職業道德、社會身份、企業責任及政府角色等概念，需要接納更多元化的工作生活平衡理念。簡而言之，我們必須通過AI來徹底改造社會，締結新的社會契約。
在上述各個方面，人工智慧技術在裡面的角色都至關重要。如果我們運用集體智慧，人工智慧就可讓人們釋放天性與創造力。
期待我們本著以人為本的精神，擁抱AI新經濟。
原文如下：
Give the A.I. Economy a Human Touch
Embracing artificial intelligence can help us create a new, equitable social contract — but only if we remember what makes us human.
By Kai-Fu Lee
Mr. Lee is a computer scientist.
This is an article from Turning Points, a special section that explores what critical moments from this year might mean for the year ahead.
Turning Point: The coronavirus pandemic inspired a wave of touchless, contactless interactions — including food delivery and medical care — and the replacement of human workers by computers and other technology.
Automation, robotics and artificial intelligence technologies have been taking over routine tasks for years. The Covid-19 pandemic has rapidly increased that trend, driven by the triple necessities of increased productivity, lower costs and human safety. Suddenly, human contact is both undesirable and more longed for than ever. Delivery companies, plumbers and even some medical providers now boast about their 「zero contact」 service, but we relish any chance we get to have an in-person meal or a face-to-face meeting.
As we face the future of an A.I. economy, 2020 has taught us the importance of human connection.
When I began my career in A.I. in 1983, I described A.I. in my application to the Ph.D. program at Carnegie Mellon University as 「the quantification of the human thinking process, the explication of human behavior」 and our 「final step」 to understanding ourselves.
In a way I was wrong, and in a way I was right. A.I. programs are capable of mimicking and even surpassing human brains in many tasks. But if A.I. allows us to truly understand ourselves, it will be because it liberates us from the mechanical drudgery of routine tasks and allows us to focus on our humanity and the compassionate connections between us.
We already know that many of the jobs that are being replaced will not return, because A.I. can do them much better than people at essentially zero cost. This will generate tremendous economic value but will also result in unprecedented job displacement. In my book 「A.I. Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order,」 I estimated that by 2033 A.I. and automation will be able to do 40 to 50 percent of our jobs.
To prepare now for the millions of displaced jobs and tackle retraining for the new skills required when A.I. is both a co-worker and a tool, I propose the 3 R’s — relearn, recalibrate and renaissance — as part of a gargantuan reimagination of how we live and work to deal with the central economic issue of our time: the A.I. revolution.
First, and perhaps easiest, is forewarning people in endangered jobs and establishing programs for them to relearn their fields in the context of A.I. The good news is that there are plenty of 「human」 skills that A.I. cannot master: creativity, social interaction, physically complex or dexterous work and, of course, using the A.I. tools that require human operators.
Vocational schools need to redesign their curriculums to increase courses for sustainable jobs. Governments could take the lead and provide incentives and subsidies for those courses, rather than blindly pursuing broad-brush economic measures like universal basic income. Corporations could also provide programs, such as Amazon’s Career Choice program. This program pays up to $12,000 annually over four years for Amazon’s hourly employees to earn degrees in high-demand occupations such as aircraft mechanics, computer-aided design and nursing.
Pandemic or no pandemic, the importance and number of human-centric service jobs, such as nursing, will grow as wealth and life spans increase. The World Health Organization predicts that by 2030, we will fall short of the number of health care workers required to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal of 「good health and well-being for all」 by approximately 18 million. There is an acute need to reassess such vital, yet undervalued, human-centric service roles both in terms of how they are perceived and how much they are paid. These jobs will form a bedrock for the new A.I. economy.
As we prepare people for the eventual transition to an A.I.-driven economy, we will also need to recalibrate many of today’s jobs. Like software did a few decades ago, A.I. can augment humans』 creative thinking with a computer’s relentless ability to churn through masses of data, hypothesize alternatives or optimize outcomes. There will not be a single, generic A.I. tool, but specific tools customized for each profession and application. We may have an A.I.-based molecule generation program for drug researchers, an A.I. advertising planner for marketers or an A.I. fact checker for journalists.
Merging A.I. optimization and the human touch will reinvent many jobs and create even more. A.I. will take care of routine tasks in tandem with humans, who will carry out the tasks that require, well, humanity. For example, future doctors will still be a patient’s primary point of contact, but they will rely on A.I. diagnostic tools to determine the best treatment. This will redirect the doctor’s role into that of a compassionate caregiver, giving them more time with their patients.
Just as the mobile internet led to roles like the Uber driver, the coming of A.I. will create jobs we cannot even conceive of yet. Examples today include A.I. engineers, data scientists, data-labelers and robot mechanics. We should watch for the emergence of such roles, make people aware of them and provide training for them.
Finally, just as the wealthy Italian cities and merchants funded that country’s Renaissance, we must hope that A.I. will inspire a renaissance of its own. With machines taking over many duties and tasks in the new economy, A.I.will inject flexibility into traditional working patterns, allowing us to rethink what work-life balance should look like and transforming both the weekday routine and retirement thresholds. With more freedom and time in such a new social contract, people will be liberated to follow their passions, creativity and talents, and to let that personal exploration inform their careers as never before.
Painters, sculptors and photographers will be able to use A.I. tools to compose, experiment, enumerate and refine their artwork. Novelists, journalists and poets will use new technologies to take their writing in previously unthought-of directions. Educators, freed from the drudgery of grading and paperwork, can finally unleash their energy to design lessons that encourage curiosity, critical thinking and creativity. A.I. programs can help teach facts and figures so that teachers can spend more time developing students』 emotional intelligence.
The three R’s will represent an unparalleled undertaking for humanity. Companies will need to retrain a massive number of displaced workers. Governments must raise an astronomical amount of money and redistribute it to fund this transition. Schools need to reinvent education to produce creative, social and multidisciplinary graduates. Everything must be redefined: the work ethic of society, entitlements for citizens, responsibilities for corporations and the role of governments.
In all of this, the role of A.I. technologies is crucial. If we do it right, A.I. will free us to embrace not only our creativity and compassion for one another, but also our humanity.
作者：創新工場董事長兼CEO 李開復博士 – 計算機科學家、企業家
本文轉自：李開復微信公眾號
亞洲浪潮，博鰲視野
立足亞洲 面向世界
傳遞論壇最新動態 促進亞洲深度合作
全球重要對話的傳達者 亞洲共同發展的瞭望者
原標題：《雙語|李開復紐約時報專欄：以人為本，擁抱AI新經濟》
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