EVERY WINTER, from May to October, tens of thousands of Australians and New Zealanders are asked how they feel. More precisely, they are asked by their governments in weekly surveys if they have a cough or a fever. Although 2020 has been a difficult year in many ways for Aussies and Kiwis, it has not necessarily been bad for their physical health. This winter only around 0.4% of people in the two countries said they were suffering from flu-like symptoms, down by four-fifths compared with last year. Other countries in the southern hemisphere have reported similar slowdowns in the spread of influenza.
每年冬天，從5月到10月，成千上萬的澳大利亞人和紐西蘭人都會被問及他們的感受。更確切地說，政府在每周的調查中詢問他們是否咳嗽或發燒。儘管2020年對澳大利亞人和紐西蘭人來說在很多方面都是困難的一年，但這並不一定對他們的身體健康不利。今年冬天，這兩個國家只有0.4%的人說他們有類似流感的症狀，比去年下降了五分之四。南半球的其他國家也報告了流感傳播的減緩。
The cause for this steep decline in infections is clear. Governments all around the world have enacted costly lockdowns to fight the novel coronavirus. In doing so, not only have countries in the southern hemisphere slowed the spread of covid-19, but they also appear inadvertently to have stopped the proliferation of another deadly disease: the flu.
Inadvertently ：[ˌɪnədˈvɜːtntli] adv. 無意地，不經意地
近義詞：unintentionally , carelessly
Proliferation ：[prəˌlɪfəˈreɪʃn] n. 增殖，擴散；分芽繁殖
感染率急劇下降的原因很清楚。世界各國政府已經實施了代價高昂的封鎖，以對抗新型冠狀病毒。通過這樣做，南半球國家不僅減緩了covid-19的傳播，而且似乎也無意中阻止了另一種致命疾病的擴散:流感。
Since 1952 the World Health Organisation (WHO) has tracked influenza in member countries, relying on local partner laboratories to report both the number and types of viruses they detect. In the first two weeks of August, the WHO processed nearly 200,000 influenza tests, and found just 46 were positive. In a typical year, the number would be closer to 3,500.
自1952年以來，世界衛生組織(世衛組織)一直在成員國追蹤流感，依靠當地合作夥伴實驗室報告它們檢測到的病毒數量和類型。在8月的前兩周，世界衛生組織進行了近20萬次流感檢測，發現只有46次呈陽性。在一個典型的年份，這個數字將接近3500。
One might worry that because health-care systems are strained, the declines in reported flu cases reflect reduced testing capacity, rather than a genuine reduction in infections. Fortunately, this is not so. WHO data are readily available in six countries in the southern hemisphere: Australia, Argentina, South Africa, Paraguay, New Zealand and Chile. There the total number of influenza tests has fallen by just 20%, while the share of tests that have come up positive has plummeted to record lows.
有人可能會擔心，由於醫療體系的緊張，流感報告病例的下降反映的是檢測能力的下降，而不是感染的真正減少。幸運的是，事實並非如此。世衛組織的數據可在南半球的六個國家:澳大利亞、阿根廷、南非、巴拉圭、紐西蘭和智利隨時獲得。在那裡，流感檢測的總數僅下降了20%，而檢測呈陽性的比例已跌至歷史低點。
Data from Australia tell a remarkable tale. From May to mid-August of 2015-19, an average of 86,000 Australians tested positive for the flu each year, and around 130 died of it. This winter the government has registered only 627 influenza infections and just a single death.
來自澳大利亞的數據說明了一個引人注目的故事。從2015年5月到8月中旬，每年平均有8.6萬澳大利亞人被檢測出流感呈陽性，其中約130人死於流感。今年冬天，政府只登記了627例流感感染和1例死亡。
The reduction in flu cases helps explain at least one puzzle in covid-19 data: some countries have seen a smaller increase in overall mortality than their covid-19 deaths would suggest. For instance, Chile has recorded around 9,800 covid-19 deaths from June to August 25th, but an increase of only about 8,800 deaths overall compared with the same period in 2015-19. It is possible that Chile is undercounting how many of its residents have died. But the near elimination of the flu has helped too.
流感病例的減少有助於解釋covid-19數據中的至少一個謎團:一些國家的總死亡率增幅低於其covid-19死亡數據所顯示的增幅。例如，6月至8月25日，智利共記錄約9800例covid-19死亡病例，但與2015-19年同期相比，總體死亡病例僅增加約8800例。智利可能低估了其居民的死亡人數。但流感的幾乎消除也起到了一定作用。
Influenza cases may yet rise in the south both this year and next, since fewer people have developed immunities. Meanwhile, countries in the northern hemisphere should expect fewer flu cases since fewer will be imported from abroad, and most people are social distancing. Seasonal influenza kills an estimated 300,000-650,000 people annually. In a year filled with terrible news, a victory against the flu is a welcome respite.
今年和明年，南方的流感病例可能還會上升，因為很少人有免疫力。與此同時，北半球國家的流感病例應該會減少，因為從國外進口的流感病例會減少，而且大多數人都保持社交距離。季節性流感每年造成大約30萬到65萬人死亡。在這充滿可怕消息的一年裡，戰勝流感是一個可喜的喘息機會。