【導語】
以下英文內容來自矽谷風投A16Z的文章《16 Startup Metrics》。介紹如何衡量一家初創公司的真實情況。網易創業Club推薦此文,保留了英文全文,並加上原創中文解說,不是翻譯喲。為了便於理解,把中文內容放在相應英文段落的前面。最後,跳過全部英文也不影響閱讀的完整性,但在本文中不建議跳過。
本文原文由 A16Z多位投資人集體創作。A16Z是世界知名的頂級風投公司,Skype, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Foursquare, Pinterest, Airbnb, Zynga, GitHub, Jawbone, Lyft, Oculus, Slack, Zenefit等等都是其被投企業。A16Z的合伙人之一Andreessen Horowitz是暢銷書《創業維艱》一書的作者。
英文原文有些地方的表述並不準確,所以我們的中文解說未必與其一致。本文裡的很多指標適用於SaaS類的2B服務公司。
文/網易創業Club 傅昊
有一句話說的好:You can’t manage what you don’t measure.
我們看到各種各樣的初創企業,似乎大家都拿到了錢而且活的不錯。但,真實情況是怎樣的?
其實需要回答的問題是:如何衡量一家初創企業的真實情況?
一篇文章很難說清楚這件事,我們只能粗略說一下用來衡量真實情況可能會用到的工具。具體運用需要區分行業、運營模式、業務發展階段並結合未來戰略布局才有價值。
本文分為三部分:
A)業務與財務指標;
B)產品與用戶指標;
C)指標的展示形式
在使用它們時:
首先,使用者需要知道應該選擇哪個指標,這需要根據業務的實質來進行選擇;
其次,使用者要明白所使用的指標背後所代表的真實情況是什麼,這包括過去、現在和未來的情況;
最後,使用者根據指標所反映的真實情況決定進一步的投資、戰略或者運營動作。
這裡,「使用者」基本上指的是(潛在)投資人和創業公司的管理層。
We have the privilege of meeting with thousands of entrepreneurs every year, and in the course of those discussions are presented with all kinds of numbers, measures, and metrics that illustrate the promise and health of a particular company. Sometimes, however, the metrics may not be the best gauge of what’s actually happening in the business, or people may use different definitions of the same metric in a way that makes it hard to understand the health of the business.
So, while some of this may be obvious to many of you who live and breathe these metrics all day long, we compiled a list of the most common or confusing ones. Where appropriate, we tried to add some notes on why investors focus on those metrics. Ultimately, though, good metrics aren’t about raising money from VCs — they’re about running the business in a way where founders know how and why certain things are working (or not) … and can address or adjust accordingly.
第一部分:業務與財務指標
對於多數早期創業公司而言,財務指標並不是做判斷時的決定性因素,但的確是重要的投資標的質量對比指標。比如說,O2O公司在一定的時期裡可能的確需要通過燒錢來擴大市場份額,但到了一定的階段之後以收入為代表的財務指標會說明很多問題。
很多人並不清楚業務數字和財務數字之間的差別。兩者的區別非常清楚,不可混淆。財務數字是在會計的語言體系下對公司過去業務成果進行的描述。要對公司的實際情況加以了解,財務和業務數字的互相印證是不可缺少的。
第一、籤約合同金額vs.收入(Bookings vs. Revenue)
我們可以把booking理解為籤約記錄。在一個會計期間(通常為一年)裡跟誰籤了銷售合同,合同的籤約金額是多大,公司會拿個小本本記錄(book)下來。在把這些籤約金額累加在一起之後就構成了本年度公司記錄的新籤約合同金額(bookings)。它並不屬於會計概念,這個數字過於粗糙,對於分析公司的真實情況通常沒有太大的借鑑意義。
收入(Revenue)則是按照會計準則對合同金額進行確認並計量的會計要素。按照會計語言的定義,收入是指企業在日常活動中所形成的、會導致所有者權益增加的、非所有者投入資本的經濟利益的總流入。一般而言,收入只有在經濟利益很可能流入從而導致企業資產增加或者負債減少,且經濟利益的流入額能夠可靠計量時才能予以確認。之所以這樣規定是為了滿足財務報表的謹慎性原則,儘量減少誇大公司業務優勢對投資者形成的決策誤導。
收入是企業經濟利益流入的主要入口。看收入的絕對值和增長率是投資人最初要看的數字之一。這個指標本身有其內涵,但在一開始只能起到一個過濾器的作用,對於變現模式清晰的公司,如果收入表現不達標是很少會有人會繼續分析的。
另外,稍微普及一下,會計要素一共有6個,分別是利潤表裡的收入、費用、利潤和資產負債表裡的資產、負責和所有者權益。會計準則對於這些要素的確認和計量方式都有明確的規定。
A common mistake is to use bookings and revenue interchangeably, but they aren’t the same thing.
Bookings is the value of a contract between the company and the customer. It reflects a contractual obligation on the part of the customer to pay the company.
Revenue is recognized when the service is actually provided or ratably over the life of the subscription agreement. How and when revenue is recognized is governed by GAAP.
Letters of intent and verbal agreements are neither revenue nor bookings.
第二、經常性收入vs.總收入(Recurring Revenue vs. Total Revenue)
Recurring的字面意思是「重複出現的」,我們可以將其理解為由日常業務產生的經常性收入。這個財務指標衡量的是一家公司的常規業務創造經濟利益流入的能力。
在投資人進行財務盡職調查時,非經常性收入通常都是會被剔除在外的。典型的非經常性收入包括資產處置、資產盤盈、補貼收入、稅收優惠、有失公允的關聯交易等等。
A16Z的投資人在此提出了三個經常性收入指標:
1)ARR(年度經常性收入)是做業務分析時最基本的經常性收入指標,它是名副其實的「主營業務收入」。
2)ARR per customer(單個用戶ARR)衡量的是從單個用戶身上獲取的年度經常性收入。分析時可以對用戶區分類別,看不同類別單個用戶ARR同比/環比變動情況。這可以判斷對單個用戶進行upselling(向上銷售,在基礎銷售項目上銷售升級版產品)或cross-selling(交叉銷售,提供與被銷售項目相關的其他銷售項目)的效果。
3)MRR(月度經常性收入)是以月度為頻率的經常性收入,它是對SaaS公司進行業務分析時的重要指標。需要注意的地方有,不要把非經常性收入算進來;不要把合同金額當成收入。
Investors more highly value companies where the majority of total revenue comes from product revenue (vs. from services). Why? Services revenue is non-recurring, has much lower margins, and is less scalable. Product revenue is the what you generate from the sale of the software or product itself.
ARR (annual recurring revenue) is a measure of revenue components that are recurring in nature. It should exclude one-time (non-recurring) fees and professional service fees.
ARR per customer: Is this flat or growing? If you are up-selling or cross-selling your customers, then it should be growing, which is a positive indicator for a healthy business.
MRR (monthly recurring revenue): Often, people will multiply one month’s all-in bookings by 12 to get to ARR. Common mistakes with this method include: (1) counting non-recurring fees such as hardware, setup, installation, professional services/ consulting agreements; (2) counting bookings (see #1).
第三、毛利潤(Gross Profit)
毛利潤=銷售收入-銷售成本。
毛利潤(率)衡量了主營業務在發生期間費用之前的銷售獲利水平。
在確定毛利潤的過程中,最重要的是需要把銷售成本的組成部分拎清楚。銷售成本內所包含的成本項目是和銷售商品及提供服務直接相關的成本項目。在看銷售成本組成時,需要注意的是公司在進行料工費的分配時是否符合會計上「製造成本」法的要求。
通常,製造業的毛利率會偏低,而軟體、快消品行業的毛利率保守的講也至少在60%以上。
實際上,投資人在進行財務指標衡量時未必是嚴格按照會計規定進行項目調整的,行業慣例及其所反映的經濟實質才是做報表調整背後的原因。
While top-line bookings growth is super important, investors want to understand how profitable that revenue stream is. Gross profit provides that measure.
What’s included in gross profit may vary by company, but in general all costs associated with the manufacturing, delivery, and support of a product/service should be included.
So be prepared to break down what’s included in — and excluded — from that gross profit figure.
第四、合同總價值vs.年度合同價值(Total Contract Value (TCV) vs. Annual Contract Value (ACV))
合同總價值(TCV),指的是一份商業合同的籤約金額,無論合同的服務期限是一個月、幾個月或長於一年。
年度合同價值(ACV),指的是經過年化處理後的合同金額。通常而言,會以單個用戶的平均ACV對銷售能力和用戶的接受度進行分析。這是SaaS業務的常用分析指標。
需要指出的是,對ACV的分析不能離開下文提到的CAC(獲客成本)分析,這兩者結合在一起才能看出業務的優劣。
TCV (total contract value) is the total value of the contract, and can be shorter or longer in duration. Make sure TCV also includes the value from one-time charges, professional service fees, and recurring charges.
ACV (annual contract value), on the other hand, measures the value of the contract over a 12-month period. Questions to ask about ACV:
What is the size? Are you getting a few hundred dollars per month from your customers, or are you able to close large deals? Of course, this depends on the market you are targeting (SMB vs. mid-market vs. enterprise).
Is it growing (and especially not shrinking)? If it’s growing, it means customers are paying you more on average for your product over time. That implies either your product is fundamentally doing more (adding features and capabilities) to warrant that increase, or is delivering so much value customers (improved functionality over alternatives) that they are willing to pay more for it.
第五、獲客成本/ CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) … (Blended vs. Paid, Organic vs. Inorganic)
獲客成本(CAC)這一項在原文中是第八條,由於它的重要性,我們將其提前至第五條。
CAC是獲取單個新用戶所需花費的全部成本。
其計算公式為:CAC=銷售費用總額/期間新增用戶數。
在確定CAC時,總體上要遵循謹慎性原則:
首先,需要遵循完整性原則把在經濟實質上歸屬於獲取新客戶的所有費用都包括進來(銷售行為中的打折、返點都屬於此類)。
其次,必須將來自不同渠道的新客戶進行區分。來自不同渠道的用戶所對應的CAC可能是不同的。另外,因為總會有一部分用戶是自己找過來而不是通過你的市場投入吸引過來的,這一類用戶不可以進入CAC計算公式的分母項。
所以,嚴格意義上的CAC是所謂的paid CAC,即,通過付出市場費用而獲取的用戶所對應的CAC。
把來自不同獲客渠道的用戶所對應的ARR和paid CAC進行對比可以看出特定類別用戶的利潤貢獻度以及市場投入的可行性。另外,對特定市場渠道加大投入可能會引起該渠道paid CAC的變化,其變化情況和背後的原因可能非常重要。
Customer acquisition cost or CAC should be the full cost of acquiring users, stated on a per user basis. Unfortunately, CAC metrics come in all shapes and sizes.
One common problem with CAC metrics is failing to include all the costs incurred in user acquisition such as referral fees, credits, or discounts. Another common problem is to calculate CAC as a 「blended」 cost (including users acquired organically) rather than isolating users acquired through 「paid」 marketing. While blended CAC [total acquisition cost / total new customers acquired across all channels] isn’t wrong, it doesn’t inform how well your paid campaigns are working and whether they’re profitable.
This is why investors consider paid CAC [total acquisition cost/ new customers acquired through paid marketing] to be more important than blended CAC in evaluating the viability of a business — it informs whether a company can scale up its user acquisition budget profitably. While an argument can be made in some cases that paid acquisition contributes to organic acquisition, one would need to demonstrate proof of that effect to put weight on blended CAC.
Many investors do like seeing both, however: the blended number as well as the CAC, broken out by paid/unpaid. We also like seeing the breakdown by dollars of paid customer acquisition channels: for example, how much does a paying customer cost if they were acquired via Facebook?
Counterintuitively, it turns out that costs typically go up as you try and reach a larger audience. So it might cost you $1 to acquire your first 1,000 users, $2 to acquire your next 10,000, and $5 to $10 to acquire your next 100,000. That’s why you can’t afford to ignore the metrics about volume of users acquired via each channel.
第六、用戶生命周期總價值/LTV (Life Time Value)
嚴格來講,LTV的定義是:特定用戶對公司貢獻的未來所有期間淨利潤的現值。現值是一個財務管理上的概念,簡單的講,未來的錢沒有現在的錢值錢,所以,折現就是要把未來經濟利益的面值折算成為現在的價值。
我們不在此向讀者具體展示和說明LTV的計算公式,僅僅說明一下LTV的用途以及需要注意的事項。
對於初創企業,LTV的主要用途是用于衡量公司(特別是SaaS公司)市場支出的有效性並用以決定是否需要進入加速擴大市場支出的階段。理想而言,SaaS公司LTV/CAC的經驗比率數字應該大於3。
與LTV相關的因素主要有:ARPU(平均單個用戶收入)、用戶流失率(其倒數為用戶生命周期)、服務單個用戶成本、CAC(獲客成本)。這幾個因素之間是相互影響的,它們的背後實質是公司行為和用戶行為之間的互動結果。因此,在計算LTV時所使用的假設應該是基於業務實際情況進行的謹慎且合理的推斷。投資人和管理層的出發點在有些時候可能不同,投資人需要減少風險,創業者需要加大投入推進業務。這就造成大家所使用的假設可能不同,假設的合理性與否就要看各自的職業判斷能力了。
實際上,計算LTV並不需要得到特別精確的數字,只要平衡謹慎性和合理性原則對各個參數進行假設得到有價值的決策結果即可。
Lifetime value is the present value of the future net profit from the customer over the duration of the relationship. It helps determine the long-term value of the customer and how much net value you generate per customer after accounting for customer acquisition costs (CAC).
A common mistake is to estimate the LTV as a present value of revenue or even gross margin of the customer instead of calculating it as net profit of the customer over the life of the relationship.
Reminder, here’s a way to calculate LTV:
Revenue per customer (per month) = average order value multiplied by the number of orders.
Contribution margin per customer (per month) = revenue from customer minus variable costs associated with a customer. Variable costs include selling, administrative and any operational costs associated with serving the customer.
Avg. life span of customer (in months) = 1 / by your monthly churn.
LTV = Contribution margin from customer multiplied by the average lifespan of customer.
Note, if you have only few months of data, the conservative way to measure LTV is to look at historical value to date. Rather than predicting average life span and estimating how the retention curves might look, we prefer to measure 12 month and 24 month LTV.
Another important calculation here is LTV as it contributes to margin. This is important because a revenue or gross margin LTV suggests a higher upper limit on what you can spend on customer acquisition. Contribution Margin LTV to CAC ratio is also a good measure to determine CAC payback and manage your advertising and marketing spend accordingly.
第七、 總成交額vs.收入(Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) vs. Revenue)
這是非常傳統的電商和交易平臺指標,在撮合交易平臺上適用。
GMV通常是針對交易平臺而言的,它衡量的是特定期間裡平臺上發生的交易流水總額。它說明了交易平臺對流量的吸納能力。
交易平臺的收入包括其在GMV裡的提成(takes)、廣告收入及其他增值服務收費。
In marketplace businesses, these are frequently used interchangeably. But GMV does not equal revenue!
GMV (gross merchandise volume) is the total sales dollar volume of merchandise transacting through the marketplace in a specific period. It’s the real top line, what the consumer side of the marketplace is spending. It is a useful measure of the size of the marketplace and can be useful as a 「current run rate」 measure based on annualizing the most recent month or quarter.
Revenue is the portion of GMV that the marketplace 「takes」. Revenue consists of the various fees that the marketplace gets for providing its services; most typically these are transaction fees based on GMV successfully transacted on the marketplace, but can also include ad revenue, sponsorships, etc. These fees are usually a fraction of GMV.
第八、未實現收益(預收帳款)以及開票額(Unearned or Deferred Revenue … and Billings)
這是一個會計確認的問題。根據會計準則,公司不得把尚未履行的服務所產生的經濟流入確認為收入項目。
在形式上,預收帳款項目記錄的就是用戶對已籤約但尚未履行服務的合同提前向公司支付的款項。因此公司財務必須把這部分提前收到的款項作為對客戶的負債記錄在資產負債表上。
當公司履行了預收帳款所對應的服務後,公司才可以在當月把這部分被作為負債的「未實現收益」從資產負債錶轉到利潤表裡確認為收入(即所謂「已實現收益」)。
Billing的意思是開收據,在公司在收到客戶預付款項時需要開具收據並記錄,當相應的款項符合收入確認條件時向客戶開具發票。Billing是財務流程中的一個動作,其本身不屬於財務報告概念。
當期Billing這個數字所代表的是公司從用戶那裡收到的全部現金金額。它反映了公司對用戶的議價能力、押款能力,如果Billing的增長勢頭好,可能說明公司的業務進入強勢增長階段。
In a SaaS business, this is the cash you collect at the time of the booking in advance of when the revenues will actually be realized.
As we』ve shared previously, SaaS companies only get to recognize revenue over the term of the deal as the service is delivered — even if a customer signs a huge up-front deal. So in most cases, that 「booking」 goes onto the balance sheet in a liability line item called deferred revenue. (Because the balance sheet has to 「balance,」 the corresponding entry on the assets side of the balance sheet is 「cash」 if the customer pre-paid for the service or 「accounts receivable」 if the company expects to bill for and receive it in the future). As the company starts to recognize revenue from the software as service, it reduces its deferred revenue balance and increases revenue: for a 24-month deal, as each month goes by deferred revenue drops by 1/24th and revenue increases by 1/24th.
A good proxy to measure the growth — and ultimately the health — of a SaaS company is to look at billings, which is calculated by taking the revenue in one quarter and adding the change in deferred revenue from the prior quarter to the current quarter. If a SaaS company is growing its bookings (whether through new business or upsells/renewals to existing customers), billings will increase.
Billings is a much better forward-looking indicator of the health of a SaaS company than simply looking at revenue because revenue understates the true value of the customer, which gets recognized ratably. But it’s also tricky because of the very nature of recurring revenue itself: A SaaS company could show stable revenue for a long time — just by working off its billings backlog — which would make the business seem healthier than it truly is. This is something we therefore watch out for when evaluating the unit economics of such businesses.
第二部分:產品與用戶指標(Product and Engagement Metrics)
產品和用戶指標的定義千差萬別,對於指標的選取和定義標準對於做出正確的投資分析和運營決策至關重要。
第九、活躍用戶數(Active Users)
活躍用戶是需要被加以定義的,原則上說,投資人一定會給一個謹慎的評判標準來衡量什麼樣的用戶才是「活躍」的。這需要根據行業特徵通過具體場景加以界定。
Different companies have almost unlimited definitions for what 「active」 means. Some charts don’t even define what that activity is, while others include inadvertent activity — such as having a high proportion of first-time users or accidental one-time users.
Be clear on how you define 「active.」
第十、環比增長率(Month-on-month (MoM) growth)
普通環比增長率受到短期因素的影響波動可能較大,其對比價值有限。
因此,投資人會選擇使用複合環比增長率(CMGC)作為環比數據的分析指標。
CMGC=(當前月數字/基礎月數字)^(1/月份數目) - 1
CMGC是一個複利概念,它把短期的劇烈波動因素去除掉,是對產品或者產業的增長潛力、變遷趨勢進行評估的長期視角。
常見的複合增長率是CAGC(Compounded Annually Growth Rate,年複合增長率)。對於高速增長的初創企業使用CMGC更加容易看出高速增長行業內橫向對比的業務增長趨勢。
這是一個gauge(標尺)工具,看的是大致的水平在什麼地方,並不要求非常精準。
Often this measured as the simple average of monthly growth rates. But investors often prefer to measure it as CMGR (Compounded Monthly Growth Rate) since CMGR measures the periodic growth, especially for a marketplace.
Using CMGR [CMGR = (Latest Month/ First Month)^(1/# of Months) -1] also helps you benchmark growth rates with other companies. This would otherwise be difficult to compare due to volatility and other factors. The CMGR will be smaller than the simple average in a growing business.
第十一、流失率(Churn)
流失率對於SaaS業務來說是至關重要的指標。用戶流失可能引起MRR(月度經常性收入)的下降。
對於MRR的流失率有兩個計算維度:
一個是MRR毛流失率,即當月流失的MRR/月初MRR;
一個是MRR淨流失率,即(當月流失的MRR-原有用戶的MRR增長數)/月初MRR。
MRR毛流失率反應了穩定狀態下用戶自然流失引起的MRR下降水平,反應了公司產品/服務對用戶的維繫能力。
MRR淨流失率考慮了公司對現有用戶進行增量銷售的因素。對於SaaS服務公司而言,這個指標非常重要,因為它顯示了公司未來服務升級的能力。
對於SaaS公司而言,單純希望依靠獲取新客戶實現長期增長几乎是不可能的事情,所以up-selling和cross selling的能力就格外重要。你依靠什麼長期留住現有客戶?如何讓他們願意多花錢購買更多的服務?這裡要考慮的不僅僅是眼前的產品形態,還必須考慮自己的戰略路徑安排。
這裡有一個cohort analysis(斷代分析)的概念,就是把每個月的新用戶分組(每個月的用戶合稱為一個cohort)後記錄其留存率。
組內縱向對比可以看出留存率的變化趨勢;
組間橫向對比可以看出後面的cohort是否較之前的cohort在留存率上有所提升。
另外,對於高速增長的SaaS公司而言,用戶續約率(Customer Renewal Rate)也是一個非常關鍵的指標。這個指標衡量的是當期到期用戶的續約比例,在大量合同同時到期的時候需要格外關注,它反應了用戶對服務的粘性和滿意程度。
There’re all kinds of churn — dollar churn, customer churn, net dollar churn — and there are varying definitions for how churn is measured. For example, some companies measure it on a revenue basis annually, which blends upsells with churn.
Investors look at it the following way:
Monthly unit churn = lost customers/prior month total
Retention by cohort
Month 1 = 100% of installed base
Latest Month = % of original installed base that are still transacting
It is also important to differentiate between gross churn and net revenue churn —
Gross churn: MRR lost in a given month/MRR at the beginning of the month.
Net churn: (MRR lost minus MRR from upsells) in a given month/MRR at the beginning of the month.
The difference between the two is significant. Gross churn estimates the actual loss to the business, while net revenue churn understates the losses (as it blends upsells with absolute churn).
第十二、現金消耗率(Burn Rate)
現金是企業運轉、擴張的血液,進攻、防守和抵禦風險的彈藥,因此,創業者、企業家對於公司的現金流和現金消耗情況必須非常關注。
Burn rate俗稱燒錢率,代表了現金儲備的消耗速度。應該如何理解它呢?
單純的看現金消耗率,分為淨現金消耗率和毛現金消耗率:
毛現金消耗的驅動因素就是公司在特定期間的現金流出總量;
淨現金消耗是公司在特定期間內收入的現金部分減去毛現金消耗的數字。它與期初現金餘額的反映了在不進行籌資活動的情況下公司未來現金可支撐的時間長度。
投資人需要知道創業團隊的現金的支出計劃,創業者需要知道錢花到什麼程度時應該達到什麼業務水平、什麼時候需要進行後續融資。通過對現金支出的預算,創業者可以更好的把握公司的成本結構
現金的消耗率(現金淨流出)受到三類活動的共同影響。這三類活動分別是經營活動(生產及銷售商品,提供服務的活動)、投資活動(長期資產的構建及處置)和融資活動(直接引起企業負債或所有者權益變動的活動)。區分這三類性質不同的活動是為了在分析現金變動時明白影響因素的性質及其來源。
由於三類活動的共同影響,現金的消耗率在各個月份之間一定不是一成不變甚至會有較高的波動。
現金消耗率沒有好壞之分,必須結合行業背景、公司發展階段來具體分析現狀和未來。
Burn rate is the rate at which cash is decreasing. Especially in early stage startups, it’s important to know and monitor burn rate as companies fail when they are running out of cash and don’t have enough time left to raise funds or reduce expenses. As a reminder, here’s a simple calculation:
Monthly cash burn = cash balance at the beginning of the year minus cash balance end of the year / 12
It’s also important to measure net burn vs. gross burn:
Net burn [revenues (including all incoming cash you have a high probability of receiving) – gross burn] is the true measure of amount of cash your company is burning every month.
Gross burn on the other hand only looks at your monthly expenses + any other cash outlays.
Investors tend to focus on net burn to understand how long the money you have left in the bank will last for you to run the company. They will also take into account the rate at which your revenues and expenses grow as monthly burn may not be a constant number.
第十三、 下載數(Downloads)
對於投資人而言,單純的下載數沒有太大意義,能夠顯示出用戶參與活躍度的數字才有評估價值。
和上文的流失率(churn)一樣,cohort analysis(斷代分析)也可以用於對用戶活躍度的分析。
組內縱向對比可以看出用戶活躍度的變化趨勢;
組間橫向對比可以看出後面的cohort是否較之前的cohort在用戶活躍度上有所提升。
Downloads (or number of apps delivered by distribution deals) are really just a vanity metric.
Investors want to see engagement, ideally expressed as cohort retention on metrics that matter for that business — for example, DAU (daily active users), MAU (monthly active users), photos shared, photos viewed, and so on.
第三部分:指標的展示形式(Presenting Metrics Generally)
對指標的展示往往涉及到圖表的使用,踏實的創業者會把真正要表現的信息用不會引起誤解的方式展示給投資人。實際上,明智的投資人不會被用了障眼法的圖表所欺騙。要知道,圖表的製作也是可以顯示出創業者的態度、動機和能力的。
第十四、累計數據圖表vs.增長率圖表/Cumulative Charts (vs. Growth Metrics)
如果要看增長情況就需要對個月的數據進行縱向對比,通常,累計數字畫出的圖表說明不了太多問題。
Cumulative charts by definition always go up and to the right for any business that is showing any kind of activity. But they are not a valid measure of growth — they can go up-and-to-the-right even when a business is shrinking. Thus, the metric is not a useful indicator of a company’s health.
Investors like to look at monthly GMV, monthly revenue, or new users/customers per month to assess the growth in early stage businesses. Quarterly charts can be used for later-stage businesses or businesses with a lot of month-to-month volatility in metrics.
第十五、圖表上的小花招(Chart Tricks)
這更多的是對創業者在態度上的提醒,因為圖表上的小花招對於明智的投資人是無效的。
比如不標記Y軸刻度,只展示百分比增長而不展示絕對值等等都屬於此類小聰明。
There a number of such tricks, but a few common ones include not labeling the Y-axis; shrinking scale to exaggerate growth; and only presenting percentage gains without presenting the absolute numbers. (This last one is misleading since percentages can sound impressive off a small base, but are not an indicator of the future trajectory.)
第十六、指標展示順序(Order of Operations)
在和投資人初次交流時,符合邏輯的順序應該依次是:業務規模指標、業務增長指標,然後才可能進入更深層次的評估和交流。
隨著大家的互相了解,後續交流將會更加深入和有針對性。
這有點像對象相親的過程,只不過投資人的邏輯不會因為交談順序的不同而被打亂而已。所以,這其實更像醫生診斷的過程。
It’s fine to present metrics in any order as you tell your story.
When initially evaluating businesses, investors often look at GMV, revenue, and bookings first because they’re an indicator of the size of the business. Once investors have a sense of the the size of the business, they』ll want to understand growth to see how well the company is performing. These basic metrics, if interesting, then compel us to look even further.
As one of our partners who recently had a baby observes here: It’s almost like doing a health check for your baby at the pediatrician’s office. Check weight and height, and then compare to previous estimates to make sure things look healthy before you go any deeper!
總結部分
指標是鏡子,是反應的真實情況的鏡像。
要用好指標需要具備三個能力:
根據業務實質,找到合適的一組指標,避免拿著哈哈鏡做平面鏡的能力;
對這些指標進行評估以看到過去、現在和未來的真實情況,做大概率正確決策的能力;
將鏡像指標作為投資和運營決策依據並高效執行的能力。
本文英文原文並不十分嚴謹,我們的解說只能做到拋磚引玉。具體應用方法需要讀者自己在實際中用心體會了。